Betting Guides

Friday’s BTTS Treble: Using Football Park's Algorithm

Friday night football is here: although it’s international football (yay!), we’re rolling into the weekend with one of our favourite bet types - the Both Teams To Score market. We’ve combined three selections taken from our in-house algorithm to create a juicy treble. Forget picking winners and how many passes City will make before someone falls to sleep - this one’s all about goals. May as well make the international break half interesting.

If you love goals, you’re in the right place. And to make it even better, this week’s picks have come directly from Football Park’s in-house algorithm - which is backed by actual maths, data, and not just gut feeling.

We’ve dug into the numbers, and we’ve got three matches lined up where the stats say: expect goals, and expect both sides to play their part. And when numbers add up like this, you’ve got to take notice.

Total price? A lovely 11.4 on Betfred. A £10 stake would return £124. Not bad for three games and a bit of Friday night fun.

The Selections: Using Football Park’s Algorithm

Selection 1: Germany v Luxembourg - Both Teams To Score @ 3.4.

We’ll start with the biggest name on the slip. Germany against Luxembourg. On paper, you’d think this is a walkover - but the algorithm says otherwise.

Germany are, of course, favourites - 50% win probability, 2.3 goals expected, and 1.04 odds to win. But here’s where it gets interesting: Luxembourg aren’t goal shy. The model still gives them 1.0 expected goals and a 64% chance of both teams to score.

Let’s face it: this German side can be devastating going forward, but their defense isn’t bulletproof, conceding in their last 5 games. They’ve been known to switch off, especially in qualifiers where they dominate possession and leave gaps at the back. Luxembourg, however, play with nothing to lose.

The expected match goals sit at 3.30, with the algorithm’s correct score prediction being 2-1 to Germany. That’s music to our ears when it comes to this BTTS selection.

Add in 66.7% probability for over 2.5 goals, and you can already smell the goals coming. The data screams an open game - plenty of chances, and hopefully Luxembourg consolation to give us a big fat green tick on this selection.

Selection 2: Dundalk v Finn Harps - Both Teams To Score @ 2.1.

If the first game is about giants and underdogs, this one’s pure Friday night League of Ireland carnage. Dundalk at home to Finn Harps - two teams that know each other well, and two teams that don’t exactly specialise in defending.

The Football Park algorithm gives us everything we need to believe in goals:

Expected Home Goals: 2.5.

Expected Away Goals: 1.1.

BTTS Probability: 83.3%.

Expected Match Goals: 3.50.

Yeah, you have read that - our algorithm has given a 83.3% chance of both teams scoring. That’s something you have to get behind. Dundalk’s attack looks sharp, and Finn Harps, despite their struggles, somehow always find a way to get on the score sheet.

The algorithm predicts a 3-1 home win, which fits our bet like a glove. Historically, the fixture has been lively too. These two have met a ton of times, and while Dundalk often come out on top, Finn Harps usually sneak one in. Their last meeting back in April finished 1-1, and previous clashes have seen 12 goals in the last 3 games. It’s a proper fixture for goals.

We’ve also got a 75% probability for over 2.5 goals, and 60% for over 3.5 - meaning it could easily turn into a goal fest. Dundalk’s home/home half-time to full-time prediction adds to the confidence: they’re expecting to come out strong, score early, and open up the game.

Selection 3: UCD v Athlone Town - Both Teams To Score @ 2.00.

To round off our treble, we’re staying in Ireland. UCD versus Athlone Town.

On paper, UCD are a stronger side - the algorithm gives them a massive 80% chance of winning and 2.7 expected goals. The BTTS probability is sitting at a massive 70%.

That’s a big number considering UCD’s expected dominance. Basically, the model thinks UCD will score plenty - but also concede at least once. And when you look at the expected match goals (3.6) that adds up perfectly.

The algorithm also predicts a 75% probability for over 2.5 goals, and 87% probability for over 0.5 goals, which means there should be goals.

Historically, these two can’t have a boring meeting if they tried. Their past meets have produced results like 6-0, 3-0, 2-2, and 2-1. Althone might not win often, but they do seem to regularly get on the scoresheet against UCD.

Add in that both teams' score & home win combo is coming in at a massive 76.7%, it’s clear: this one has goals written all over it.