We Simulated the Premier League 10,000 Times - Who Will Finish Where?

We Simulated the Premier League 10,000 Times - Who Will Finish Where?

10,000 Simulations, One Winner

Predicting a Premier League season is never an easy task. Predicting it 10,000 times, however, gives you a pretty good idea of what could be in store.

Ahead of the 2026/27 campaign, Football Park's data-led model simulated the entire Premier League season 10,000 times, producing an average final table alongside each club's chances of winning the title, qualifying for Europe and suffering relegation.

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The final results saw Arsenal emerge as champions, ahead of Liverpool and Manchester City, while Ipswich Town, Coventry City and Hull City were predicted to occupy the bottom three.

But what do the people who follow these clubs every week make of it?

Football Park put the results in front of supporters from across the Premier League to find out whether the data matches expectations on the terraces. Here is how fans of all 20 clubs are feeling about their chances ahead of the new season.

Arsenal – 1st

The simulations have Arsenal retaining the Premier League trophy, with Mikel Arteta's side averaging 75.2 points and winning the title in 35.6% of the 10,000 seasons.

Arsenal fan Spike didn't take issue with his own side topping the pile. Instead, his attention immediately turned to one of the more surprising predictions further down the table, with Manchester United finishing fifth.

With United also having Champions League football to contend with this season, he isn't buying it.

Liverpool – 2nd

Liverpool are Arsenal's closest challengers according to the model, averaging 68.1 points across the simulations.

Try telling that to Liverpool supporter Geezy.

He was having none of the suggestion that the Reds will finish runners-up to Arsenal, poking fun at the prospect of Liverpool ending the campaign behind the Gunners.

Manchester City – 3rd

Manchester City are predicted to finish third, averaging 66.1 points across the 10,000 simulations, although their 21.6% title probability still gives them the second-highest chance of becoming champions.

But there are already some concerns among City supporters heading into the campaign.

After seeing Rodri in action, DxBruyneSZN delivered a rather dramatic assessment of the midfielder's current level, claiming "it's never been more over".

It seems third place might not be the only thing worrying City fans ahead of the new season.

Chelsea – 4th

Chelsea complete the predicted top four with an average of 66 points.

After finishing 10th last season, a return to Champions League qualification would represent a significant improvement, and Chelsea supporter Dray thinks fourth is a fair assessment.

He also believes the uncertainty surrounding several of the other leading clubs could leave the season more open than expected.

Manchester United – 5th

Manchester United are backed to finish fifth this season, with the simulations giving them an average of 65.8 points.

Fergie Standards believes even more could be possible.

With City and Chelsea undergoing changes, Villa losing key players and Liverpool facing questions of their own, he believes another two or three additions could leave United in a strong position to secure Champions League football.

Tottenham Hotspur – 6th

Tottenham are predicted to finish sixth on 59.1 points, putting them back into the European conversation.

Hotspur Reports is a little more optimistic. Asked where Spurs will finish this season, there was no hesitation: fifth.

Aston Villa – 7th

Aston Villa are predicted to finish seventh, averaging 57 points across the 10,000 simulations and putting them firmly in the battle for European football.

Villa supporter Connor's outlook ahead of the new season isn't exactly filled with confidence, though.

With injuries already causing problems, Ezri Konsa potentially leaving and the likes of Ollie Watkins, Emiliano Martinez and Alejandro Garnacho lacking match fitness, his sarcastic response summed up the mood: "Bring on the season.

Brighton & Hove Albion – 8th

Brighton come next in eighth with an average of 53.2 points.

That could potentially put the Seagulls back into the European conversation – something MwepuMagic was quick to pick up on.

His reaction? Another shot at the Conference League, although memories of Brighton's previous European adventures clearly haven't disappeared just yet.

Bournemouth – 9th

The model places Bournemouth ninth with an average of 50.6 points.

Bournemouth supporter Jkrmcf has considerably bigger ambitions.

Rather than simply disagreeing with Football Park's prediction, he produced an entire alternative Premier League table, and has the Cherries finishing all the way up in fifth.

Bookmark it and come back in May, as he says.

Newcastle United – 10th

Newcastle round off the predicted top half, averaging 50.5 points across the 10,000 simulations.

And it seems expectations aren't exactly sky-high among some of the Toon Army either.

After Newcastle suffered a 2-1 pre-season defeat, supporter NUFCpb joked that he had already "accepted we're getting relegated" before the Premier League campaign had even begun.

Suddenly, Football Park's prediction of 10th doesn't seem so bad.

Everton – 11th

Everton are predicted to finish 11th with an average of 49.9 points.

NilSatisNews views that as a slight improvement but believes there is room for more if Everton strengthen before the window closes.

In particular, new options at full-back and centre-forward could make a significant difference, while the performances of some of the club's youngsters during pre-season have also provided encouragement.

Nottingham Forest – 12th

After some rather more eventful Premier League campaigns, the model is offering Nottingham Forest something different: mid-table security. Forest are predicted to finish 12th with an average of 49.8 points.

A familiar face in Louis Wheeldon was relatively happy to see his beloved Forest predicted mid-table!

Brentford – 13th

Brentford come in at 13th on an average of 49.5 points, a prediction that Brentford Hive believes is far too pessimistic.

Rather than looking down the table, he believes the Bees can challenge for Europe.

With the likes of Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Brighton and Sunderland potentially having to balance domestic football with midweek fixtures, he sees an opportunity for Brentford to take advantage.

Leeds United – 14th

Sometimes there is no need for a lengthy analysis.

The model has Leeds finishing 14th with an average of 46.8 points, comfortably clear of the relegation zone following their return to the Premier League.

Billy Reid's verdict summed it up rather nicely: he'd "snap your hand off" for that right now.

Crystal Palace – 15th

Crystal Palace are predicted to finish 15th on 46.6 points, but Eagles supporter Sean believes the model has been too harsh.

His preferred destination is 12th, while he also has plenty of disagreements elsewhere in the table.

Liverpool in second? Not happening, in his view. He expects City, United and Chelsea to be Arsenal's closest challengers, Spurs to climb higher and Sunderland to outperform Fulham.

Let’s see at the end of the season whose prediction was closer!

Fulham – 16th

The simulations have Fulham down in 16th with an average of 46.2 points.

Average Jack isn't particularly impressed.

After a 12th-place finish last season and more than £100 million worth of new players added to the squad, he can't understand why expectations have seemingly fallen.

At least they're outside the relegation zone, but he sees plenty of opportunity for Fulham to prove people wrong.

Sunderland – 17th

Just above the dreaded dotted line are Sunderland, with the model predicting a 17th-place finish and an average of 43.7 points.

Sunderland supporter Josh accepts that most predictions have his side down for a difficult campaign and admits he can understand why.

But 17th? He's not quite convinced things will be that tight.

Ipswich Town – 18th

Ipswich are the first side predicted to go down, with the simulations placing them 18th, but why focus on that when there is a much more important number buried in the data?

The simulations give Ipswich a 0.4% chance of qualifying for Europe.

Reece spotted it and that's all he needed to see.

Coventry City – 19th

Coventry are predicted to finish 19th. The Sky Blues’ stay in the Premier League will unfortunately be short-lived based on the Football Park model.

Aaron's initial diagnosis? Clearly none of the 10,000 simulations included Gustavo Hamer.

The more serious assessment was considerably less bullish, though. He believes Coventry need to add a few more signings before the transfer window closes or they could find themselves in serious trouble.

Hull City – 20th

Finally, the model has Hull City propping up the table, averaging 35.2 points across the 10,000 simulations.

Understandably, HCAFC Banana decided not to dwell on that particular part of the prediction.

Instead, he found the important takeaway from the wider simulation data and jokingly told supporters he'd see them all in the Champions League next season.

You can't fault the optimism.

So, will the simulations be right?

Unfortunately we can’t answer that for nine months, but that’s all part of the fun!

Across 10,000 simulated seasons, Football Park's model has Arsenal as the most likely champions, a congested battle for the European places and Ipswich, Coventry and Hull occupying the bottom three. The supporters themselves clearly have other ideas.

Now there is only one thing left to do. Come back in May and see who knew best:

The data or the fans?

Louis Bond Writer

Louis Bond is a Sports Journalist and Digital Content Creator with a degree in Sports Journalism from the University of Derby.

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