Qarabag vs Ajax Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Match Details: December 10, 2025 | Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium | UEFA Champions League | 17:45 GMT

Qarabag host Dutch giants Ajax in Azerbaijan in a Champions League game that could be decisive in seeing who progresses to the round of 16 play-offs come the end of the group stage. With only three games remaining, Ajax are as good as eliminated as they have yet to pick up a single point, while Qarabag are in with a good chance of making it to the next stage. A good result here would almost wrap up their qualification, as it took 11 points to make it through last year, and a win would bring them up to 10 points with two games still to play.

Key Betting Tips: Over 2.5 Match Goals at 1.62 odds on talkSPORT BET, or 1.60 odds on BoyleSports represent good value based on the tip provided by Football Park's algorithm.

There's regularly been action at both ends for both of these sides in recent games. Ajax have been woeful in Europe this season, but they still have the stronger side on paper, so predicting a winner would be too risky of a move, which means backing goals looks like a safer bet.

Qarabag vs Ajax Predicted Lineups

Qarabag Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Mateusz Kochalski; Elvin Jafarquliyev, Kevin Medina, Bahlul Mustafazade, Matheus Silva; Marko Jankovic, Pedro Bicalho; Emmanuel Addai, Abdellah Zoubir, Leandro Andrade; Camilo Duran

Qarabag have two players who will continue to miss fixtures into the end of January, so will of course not be fit to make an appearance against Ajax. Those two are Kady Malinowski, who suffered a leg injury early last month, and Shahrudi Mahammadaliyev, the goalkeeper picking up a muscular injury in their last game.

Ajax Predicted XI (4-3-3): Vitezslav Jaros; Owen Wijndal, Youri Baas, Aaron Bouwman, Youri Regeer; Ko Itakura, Kenneth Taylor, Davy Klaassen; Mika Godts, Wout Weghorst, Rayane Bounida

There is only one player that isn't fit for Ajax, but he'll be a big miss. Steven Berghuis is subject to a late fitness test to decide if he'll be able to play after suffering a groin injury two months ago. If he does make an appearance, he almost certainly won't be starting, as Fred Grim will need to ease him back into action.

Qarabag vs Ajax Current League Standings

The hosts have enjoyed a surprisingly positive Champions League campaign so far, with their dramatic comeback win against Benfica and their 2-2 draw against Chelsea certainly being the highlights. As a result, they find themselves in a very respectable 19th, a position that would see them qualify for the play-offs if they can maintain it. Despite that, they haven't got any room for complacency, as they are only clear of the elimination places by one point, so keeping their head on the task at hand will be crucial for the Azerbaijani side. They face the only side who haven't earned a point yet, which is the exact calibre of team you want to be playing against at a time like this.

Ajax have been atrocious in the Champions League this season. It's been really really dismal for the Dutch giants, who have only managed to score one goal in their five matches. They've been shipping goals for fun and offering nothing going forward, and although they aren't mathematically out of the tournament yet, chasing a six point deficit with three games to go with 11 teams ahead of you means you're pretty much done. Losing this will guarantee their elimination, and it's impossible to argue that it would be harsh on them to go crashing out.

Qarabag vs Ajax Head-to-Head Timeline

There has only been one meeting of these sides in history, and it came last year in the Europa League group stages. Qarabag were also at home for that tie, but Ajax won comfortably against a nine-men opponent in a 3-0 win, with goals courtesy of Taylor, Weghorst, and now Ipswich man Chuba Akpom.

Qarabag will seek revenge this time out, but I would doubt that they're thinking much about what happened last year. Their eyes should be focused firmly ahead on how important a win would be.

Recent Head-to-Head Results:

• October 24, 2024: Qarabag 0-3 Ajax (UEFA Europa League)

Qarabag and Ajax Recent Matches Analysis

Qarabag Last 5 Matches:

• Qarabag 1-1 Zirə FK (A) - Misli Premier League
• Qarabag 3-0 Karvan (H) - Azerbaijan Cup
• Qarabag 2-0 Karvan (H) – Misli Premier League
• Qarabag 0-2 Napoli (A) - UEFA Champions League
• Qarabag 4-2 Sumqayıt FK (A) - Misli Premier League

Things are looking good for Qarabag at the moment, who have taken three wins from their last five games in all competitions. A draw against their title rivals Zirə wasn't absolutely ideal, but it's a good enough result to keep them three points clear of their opponents in the league with a game in hand. Defeat to Napoli won't have swayed them too much as, frankly, it didn't come as much of a surprise, but they make life hard for the Italian side who had to rely on even more Scott McTominay heroics. Essentially, they should be coming into this game with their heads held high on the back of good form and exciting domestic and European campaigns.

Ajax Last 5 Matches:

• Ajax 3-1 Fortuna Sittard (A) - Eredivisie
• Ajax 2-0 Groningen (H) - Eredivisie
• Ajax 0-2 Benfica (H) - UEFA Champions League
• Ajax 1-2 Excelsior (H) - Eredivisie
• Ajax 1-2 Utrecht (A) - Eredivisie

Back-to-back wins are exactly what Ajax needed coming into this game when you consider the horrendous form they were in beforehand. Four losses on the bounce before their upturn in form has pretty much knocked them out of the Champions League and ended their title ambitions, as they are somehow already 14 points behind Eredivisie leaders PSV. Seven goals conceded in their last five is not a great record to be holding right now, but they've matched that with seven goals of their own in that time. All we know is, when Ajax play, the potential for goals is high.

Qarabag vs Ajax Predictions

Our advanced algorithm analyses over 200 data points to generate these predictions with a 70.00% confidence in Over 2.5 Match Goals. The model factors in current form, head-to-head records, player availability, and tactical matchups.

Best Qarabag vs Ajax Betting Tips

Football Park’s Best Bet: Over 2.5 Match Goals @ 1.62 odds on talkSPORT BET - Backing either side feels a little too unpredictable, but based on recent form it looks like there's going to be goals in this one, making this the best bet.

Key Players to Watch: Qarabag vs Ajax

Leandro Andrade (Qarabag): The winger has been Qarabag's stand-out player in Europe this season, with three goals to his name and another two goal involvements in the Azerbaijan Premier League. He's offered a serious threat to defenses on the flank, and is also capable of playing through the middle, so could pose an option for his side if they need to switch around to break Ajax down.

Mika Godts (Ajax): This Belgian winger is only 20-years old and has looked really exciting for Ajax this season, providing much-needed youthful energy on the flank to compliment Weghorst's slow, experienced style. With six goals and five assists in the Eredivisie so far this season, Godts has demonstrated excellent attacking output far beyond his years, and could have what it takes to earn Ajax their first points in the Champions League this season.

Qarabag vs Ajax Match Facts

Broadcast Details: TNT Sports 9 and Discovery+ UK

Referee: TBC

Stadium Information: Located in Baku, the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium is home to the Azerbaijan national team and is one of two homes for Qarabag, the other being the Azersun Arena.

Qarabag vs Ajax: Final Prediction

Qarabag 2-3 Ajax