Are Carlisle The Biggest Underperformers In Europe This Season?

As their results have turned around in the last few weeks, Carlisle now have the chance to avoid back to back relegations and stay in League Two for next season. Their recent form should not however give them a reason to gloss over the rest of their dreadful campaign. Before the beginning of this month they had won just seven games all season and had lost 22, however two wins in their last three has given them some sort of hope.

But why have they been so bad this season? They were relegated from League One last campaign, finishing bottom of the league, 11 points behind anyone else. That was down to their poor defence, conceding 81 times in 46 games, managing just three clean sheets all season. This year, it is different as they are conceding just as many as the teams around them near the bottom of the table. Their biggest problem is converting strong chances into goals.

The Biggest xG Underperformers

Out of all of the teams in League Two, Carlisle are underperforming their xG the most this season. They have scored just 36 times in 42 matches, however they have an xG of 48, meaning that the difference between their goals and xG is -12. The next worst team in the league in that statistic is Gillingham, who have an xG difference of -5.

(stats by Opta)

It comes as no surprise then, that Carlisle also have the worst shot conversion rate in the league, with just 7.44% of their shots finding the back of the net. Tranmere Rovers are not too far behind in that stat, with 7.53%. Carlisle’s best hope of surviving the drop this season is by climbing above Accrington Stanley, who’s conversion stats are quite impressive, with an 11.78% conversion rate, while overperforming their xG by five goals.

Expected Goals vs Goals Scored in League Two this season 🤔🙌 pic.twitter.com/HZYxlPNauK

— The Lower Tiers (@LowerTiers) March 13, 2025

You would think then, that they have someone in their squad a little bit like Darwin Nunez, with an incredibly poor goals per xG rate, however this is not the case. Kadeem Harris has the highest xG of any Carlisle player this season, however his is still just 4.54. He has managed three league goals this season, meaning that he is underperforming his xG by 1.54 goals, which isn’t too bad. The reason the team is underperforming is because almost every player at Carlisle is currently underperforming their xG by about one goal. This isn’t helped by the fact that their average xG per shot is quite low, at just 0.10, which means that they don’t often create clear chances.

How Does This Compare To Other English Leagues?

Surprisingly, Rotherham are the biggest xG underperformers in League One, however they are currently sitting comfortably in 13th in the league table. They are underperforming their xG by nine goals, three better off than Carlisle, with a significantly better conversion rate of nearly a whole percent. League One’s bottom club Shrewsbury are the third worst underperformers in the league, with an xG difference of -5. Unlike Carlisle however, they have had the fewest shots in the league with just 384 this season.

Heading up to the Championship, Luton Town are the biggest underperformers there, with an xG difference of -9 once again. They are currently joint bottom of the league alongside Plymouth Argyle, who conversely have the best xG difference in the whole league. This shows that their problems lie with creating chances instead of finishing them off, as well as in defence, where they have conceded the most goals in the league by some distance.

Evanilson smashes the underside of the bar...

SO close to a second! 😱

— AFC Bournemouth 🍒 (@afcbournemouth) April 14, 2025

It is certainly no surprise to Bournemouth fans that the team in the Premier League that is underperforming their xG the most is the South Coast club. The Cherries have an xG difference of -7, which is still significantly better than Carlisle’s. When Adam Smith, Justin Kluivert, Marcos Senesi, Marcus Tavernier and Evanilson are all competing for miss of the season, then it ends up adding up to a poor overall xG. However Bournemouth have made it work, as they are currently in eighth place in the league. This is down to them having the fourth most shots and the third most xG in the league, so missing a few chances hasn’t harmed them too much. There is always the argument that they could be doing better had they not missed so many opportunities, however finishing inside a European place is always a good achievement.

Are Carlisle The Worst Side In Europe?

Carlisle are by far the biggest underperformers in the English football league, but moving abroad, how do they compare to the top four European leagues? In the Bundesliga, Bochum are the biggest underperformers with an xG difference of -9. Compared to Holstein Kiel, who are two points behind Bochum at the bottom of the table, Bochum have an xG of 37 while Kiel have 32. However Kiel are overperforming their xG meaning that they have scored 12 more goals than their nearest competitors. Carlisle fans will be pleased to know however that their side do not have the worst conversion rate in Europe, as Bochum have scored just 7.37% of their shots, 0.07% worse off than The Blues.

While Real Valladolid might have scored just 21 goals in the league this season, their xG difference is not that bad compared to Carlisle’s. At -5, it is still the worst in the Spanish top flight but not by a significant margin, as Real Betis also are underperforming their xG by the same amount. Valladolid look likely to be relegated this season as they are on just 16 points, after 31 games, however that is more down to their horrendous defensive record, having conceded 21 more times than any other team.

Real Valladolid lose an 8th game out of 12. They've taken points just once this season after falling behind, and given they have worst defence in La Liga...

You worry for Paulo Pezzolano.

— Ruairidh Barlow (@RuriBarlow) November 2, 2024

Like Spain, Italy has very few teams that are massively underperforming their expected goals. The team that rank at the bottom of the xG difference stats is Lecce, who are currently teetering just two points above the relegation zone. They have an xG difference -6 but like Carlisle don’t have any player who is making that stat stand out. Ante Rebic is the biggest underperformer for Lecce, but he has an xG difference of just -1.11. The reason they are so far down is because of their atrocious conversion rate, that stands at just 5.88% They rank 10th in the league for the most shots in total, but bottom of the list in goals scored, with an xG per shot of 0.08.

Finally we come to Ligue 1, where we at long last find a team that is underperforming their xG even more than Carlisle. Lens are sitting comfortably in mid-table and have the third best defence in the league behind PSG and Lille, however in front of goal they have been very poor. They have an xG difference of -14 this season, having found the back of the net just 32 times across their 31 matches so far. Somehow, their conversion rate is still higher than Carlisle’s at 7.60%. Montpellier, who are currently sitting bottom of the league, have a worse conversion rate than the Cumbrian side, at just 6.31%, but are narrowly ahead of them with their xG difference of -11.

(stats by Opta)