Is Birmingham’s transfer gamble worth the risk?

After getting relegated from the Championship Birmingham City have had one sole aim which is getting straight back up. Looking at their transfers this summer, it certainly seems like they are willing to do it by any means necessary, no matter the consequences.

The three most expensive signings in League One this summer were all done by Birmingham City and even more impressively, they all broke the League One transfer record previously held by Will Grigg for his move to Sunderland.

The Blues total expenditure for the 2024 summer window falls just below 30 million pounds, which for a League One club is inconceivable. After seeing many clubs fall at the hands of financial mismanagement Birmingham City should pray that their gamble results in promotion as the other option could break the football club.

So to consider the risk, we should look at the signings they brought in, specifically looking at the three record setters this summer.

Willum Thór Willumsson - £3.36 Million from Go Ahead Eagles

The Club are delighted to confirm the signing of Willum Thor Willumsson, who joins from Go Ahead Eagles for an undisclosed fee. 🔵

— Birmingham City FC (@BCFC) July 19, 2024

Willumson was brought in from the top flight of the Netherlands and on paper this one looks like good business. At the age of 25, there is still the prospect of selling him in the future for a higher fee, and his stats for a relatively poor Dutch side are enough to believe that he would perform well in League One. In his last season for Go Ahead Eagles he managed 7 goals and 2 assists in the Eridivisie. These statistics resulted in him getting 0.3 goals and assists per 90 last season, which you would hope would translate very well to the third tier of English Football. Already the Icelandic midfielder has 1 goal and 1 assist in League One so far, averaging 0.89 goals and assists per 90 for Birmingham. So as a result, this transfer is looking good so far.

Christoph Klarer - £3.5 Million from Darmstadt 98

It couldn’t be Klarer, Christoph is a blue. 🔵 pic.twitter.com/lqZGf6XOzc

— Birmingham City FC (@BCFC) July 20, 2024

After finishing bottom of the Bundesliga, Klarer won himself a move to Birmingham City breaking League One’s transfer record for a second time this summer. After analysing the player’s statistics, he has certain similarities to England international Marc Guehi. When looking at the 2023-24 season the two players had the same interceptions per 90, shots blocked per 90 and also errors leading to shots per 90. It’s definitely good company to be in which explains why Birmingham went for the Austrian defender. So far this season Klarer has 1 assist and has averaged a FotMob rating of 7.37 in his 3 League One games for Birmingham. It’s easy to understand from the player’s statistics and performances why Birmingham were willing top pay this fee for him.

Jay Stansfield - £14.99 Million from Fulham

Birmingham City have now signed Jay Stansfield for a guaranteed fee of £15m, plus £5m in add-ons, a 20% sell-on clause, and a £100k bonus if they are promoted to Championship🤯🤯🤯

Insanity for League 1… https://t.co/Wo4TudS9ik

— The 44 ⚽️ (@The_Forty_Four) August 30, 2024

This is the transfer on everyone’s lips at the moment. Within a week of scoring to help knock Birmingham out of the Carabao Cup, Stansfield signed on the dotted line to make a permanent move to St Andrews. For the fee of nearly 15 million pounds it has absolutely smashed the League One transfer record and is unlikely to ever be beaten. The other two transfers were fair for market value with the fees being slightly above each player’s worth. In this case Stansfield has an estimated market value of 2.95 million pounds according to transfermarkt, which makes this transfer almost comical in hindsight.

The fee is not worth the player by any means, however, Stansfield will add quality to Birmingham’s team and as a hail mary attempt to win promotion, he is very likely to help them achieve that goal. Last season for Birmingham on loan Stansfield got 12 goals and 2 assists in the Championship. However, his best performing season actually came in League One when on loan at Exeter City as he registered 9 goals and 7 assists with 7 less appearances than his season in the Championship. Combined with his familiarity at the club, Birmingham know he can successfully fire them towards promotion. But for the fee they have paid it’s difficult to say the ends justify the means.