Nottingham Forest’s points deduction - How this changes the relegation battle
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Nottingham Forest’s points deduction - How this changes the relegation battle

18/03/24 22:04

With just two months to go until the end of the Premier League season, the powers that be have put a mighty spanner in the works. Nottingham Forest have been handed a deduction of four points due to breaching the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR). While this is less than Everton’s deduction, even after theirs was reduced from ten to six, at this point in the season four points could prove pivotal in the context of the relegation battle. Nottingham Forest now find themselves in the bottom three, one point from safety with just nine games to go. They have seven days to appeal the decision but considering their deduction is less than Everton’s there is the feeling that they may have got off lightly.

First let's look at the relegation zone. Sheffield United sit rock bottom on 14 points, Burnley are 19th on 17 points and Nottingham Forest are in 18th on 21 points. Sheffield United will probably still be relegated but this news will certainly perk up Vincent Kompany and Burnley as suddenly things are a lot tighter with just five points separating the clarets from survival. The season hasn’t gone as expected for Burnley and Kompany after last season’s impressive Championship season. People may not remember but the former Man City captain was linked with the Spurs job before Ange Postecoglu was appointed, that is how positive the discussion around Kompany’s Burnley were. Suddenly their chances of survival have gone up and they know the job they have to do.

Luton Town now find themselves out of the bottom three and they will be delighted. The story of Luton’s rise up the Football League has been spoken at length by many people in the game, but is their survival in the Premier League the next chapter? There has been a growing positivity around Luton recently, as when they recently faced Nottingham Forest a win for the Hatters would’ve taken them out of the relegation zone. With strong performances from Luton this season, especially at home, and the underdog feeling around the club this season, the news of Forest’s deduction will massively boost Rob Edwards and his side’s chances of staying in the Premier League.It seems clear with just 5 points between Luton, Forest and Burnley, that two of these sides are likely to complete the bottom three alongside Sheffield United.

However, with only nine games left it’s important to look at which teams these three teams have got left to play. Despite Luton being the highest out of these three they have the trickiest run in with an average position of 9th between their remaining nine games. Burnley have it slightly easier with an average position of 11.3. Nottingham Forest have the easiest selection of fixtures with an average position of 12.1 for their final nine games which will certainly help them feeling positive despite the news. To help Forest’s chances even more they are the only side out of the three which has five home games remaining.

The points deduction may have created a grand finale for the relegation battle and increased the survival hopes of both Luton and Burnley but as the situation stands now, Forest are still favoured to stay up despite their deduction which would be a big story in itself and would be damning for the championship. For two separate Premier League sides to receive points deductions in the same season only for the three promoted sides to complete the bottom three, it would emphasise the growing gap in quality between the Premier League and the Championship.

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