This Championship Club Should Be 2nd In The Table – And The Data Proves It

This Championship Club Should Be 2nd In The Table – And The Data Proves It

The expected goals metric is, to say the least, divisive. Old-fashioned football fans look at it and say, “I remember the days when all we needed was the scoreline and 22 players on the pitch,” while the more woke generation lends it unnecessary weight and importance in their usually biased social media threads.

Now, sorry to the football purists amongst you, but I believe the stat certainly helps to show certain trends. I don’t love it, and it would never be in my top five stats to check post-game, but the XG metric can certainly lend an extra perspective, one which can help you see any given game of football in a slightly different way.

It’s Patrik Berger’s birthday today. You remember him.

“You can stick your xG up your arse. I’m twatting this…”

pic.twitter.com/P2kqzfsMB1

— A Funny Old Game (@sid_lambert) November 10, 2024

The stat truly comes into its own over the course of multiple games - we are now 12 games into the Championship season, and while it is hard to draw any opinions based off one or two games, a whole lot more can be divined by the time we reach a quarter of the way through the season (where did the time go?).

The English second tier is proving to be one of the most entertaining divisions in the world right now, packed full of underdogs and underperformers, as well as those who are just damned unlucky. Ipswich Town falls comfortably into the latter category, and you’ll never guess which statistic I will be using to support my argument - say it with me: “EXPECTED GOALS”.

The Numbers

Relegated from the top flight at the end of last season despite scratching and clawing with the top flight big boys all the way up until the final day of the season, many expected the Tractor Boys to be in and around the promotion hunt yet again this season. However, so far, Ipswich fans have been underwhelmed, with their side currently occupying 12th with four wins, four draws, and three defeats.

Every relegated side has struggled since returning to the Championship, and many have dismissed Leicester, Southampton and Ipswich’s table position as the norm. However, at Portland Road, their current mid-table occupation is anything but normal.

2nd for xG in the championship (20.8)

But only 12 scored... 📉

9th for xG conceded (13)

But fifteen conceded... 📉

Second in the expectedpoints table.... (x19.6pts)

but 18th with 12pts... 📉

This is not on Will Still - it's on the players, and recruitment.

Back Him. 🇧🇪 pic.twitter.com/vQ1ZIToSY8

— Saints Statistics (@TheStatsSaint) October 23, 2025

This is perfectly illustrated by the XG tables. Ipswich’s current record boasts a goals scored tally of 17 and goals conceded of 13, leaving their overall record at +4. However, when you delve into the stats and calculate the quality of each scoring chance, both for and against, across their eleven games so far, an unusual pattern starts to become prominent.

According to their ‘XG for’ statistic, Ipswich should actually have found the net 20.5 times this season - rounding that down to 20, that is three more than their current goal total. Things become even more interesting in the ‘XG against’ column - given the quality of chances Ipswich have allowed their opponents, they should in fact have conceded just 11.6 goals, a number which indicates that both the backline and goalkeeper have been conceding too many of the shots they have faced.

Combining these two figures provides Ipswich with an expected goal difference of +9, or to put it more simply, the second-best figure in this category in the entire Championship. Long story short, Ipswich should be in the automatic promotion places.

So why aren’t they?

Bad Luck? Or Something Deeper?

It's easy to put a statistic like this down to bad luck - fortunate blocks, slips at the last moment, or minute deflections can all render a seriously good chance irrelevant, simply because it didn’t find the back of the net. However, there is more data that indicates that there could be something deeper at play here.

Their total XG of 20.5 is the third-best figure in the Championship, bested only by league leaders Coventry and even bigger underperformers Southampton, and their expected goal difference per 90 stands at 0.81 - simply put, Ipswich should be scoring almost a goal per game more than their opponents.

Ive never seen a more Individual ipswich town team then this current shit show. Inept of ideas. Corners are utterly woeful. Well and truly found out.

— kristian bale (@bale_itfc) October 21, 2025

But Ipswich are emphatically lacking that clinical touch up front, no shortage of which is down to the departure of last season's star forward, Liam Delap, who made the switch to Chelsea in the summer.

In his place, George Hirst and Ivan Azon have been handed the task of making the centre-forward spot their own but have so far found only limited success. Hirst has three goals to his name this campaign, while Spaniard Azon is yet to find the net.

As a result, Keiran McKenna has had to rely on his deeper attacking options for goals, and the reliance has become increasingly heavy: wingers Jaden Philogene-Bidace and Jack Clarke both have five apiece, accounting for 58% of Ipswich’s goals this season. While having in-form wingers is vital to maintaining a promotion push, it makes no difference whatsoever if the actual goalscorers aren’t lending a helping hand.

Brighton are reportedly eyeing Ipswich’s Jaden Philogene. One of the Championship’s standout stars this season with 5 goals in 10 games 🔥

[via @tbrfootball]#BHAFC | #Transfers | #Championship pic.twitter.com/Vt4qE9tLpl

— Brighton Buzz (@BrightonBuzzz) October 26, 2025

Herein lies the problem - McKenna could change the system in favour of his strikers in a bid to get them scoring again, but this could affect his wingers and potentially remove vital goals from their game. Conversely, he could stick with the same system, allowing his wide player freedom and frequent scoring opportunities, but if he does this, then there is no promise that his forwards will start to fire any time soon.

It is up to McKenna to pick the lesser of two evils - his out-and-out strikers have been profligate, to say the least, wasting clear-cut chance after clear-cut chance in games they would be expected to win, but ending up losing. But to sacrifice his winger's excellent output would be managerial suicide, and it looks like the sort of problem the coach will have to make peace with until the January transfer window.

Leaky At The Back

Similar issues have made themselves known at the back: despite regularly limiting their opponents to half chances, Ipswich continue to concede goals at an unwarranted rate, and as a result, have managed to keep just two clean sheets this season.

Goalkeeper Alex Palmer appears to be part of the problem - his save percentage of just 63% places him 20th amongst the Championship’s 25 stoppers to have played a full game this season, and his record of 11 goals conceded from 31 shots is certainly an eyesore.

However, he has made zero errors leading to goals and had been known in Championship seasons past as an athletic keeper with outstanding reflexes - so is he actually the problem?

Alex Palmer the second best keeper Albion had after Ben Foster in my lifetime #wba

— Big Bob Football (@BigBobFootball) October 17, 2025

The issue instead could be in front of him - are the defenders allowing too many easy chances and thus providing Palmer with little chance of saving them, hence his poor save percentage?.

Well, not really - their expected goals against figure still stands at a lower total than their actual goals conceded, leading me to believe that the defence are, at least in part, doing their job.

It could simply be that when sides play against Ipswich, their goalscorers enter a flow state and finish virtually everything that falls for them - Ipswich have conceded a few stunners already this season.

But it is more likely that Palmer is underperforming between the sticks, and thanks to him conceding more than he would typically be expected to given the quality of chances, it puts the Tractor Boys' expected goals figure into even starker contrast.

It is, of course, still relatively early in the season - with just 25% of the games behind us, McKenna has plenty of time to turn these wrongs into rights. However, McKenna himself has come under scrutiny thanks to recent wasteful performances, and the calls for his job have only grown louder as the season has gone on.

I think this might - and should - be the end of Kieran McKenna at Ipswich. We’ve been so disjointed all season and he has the best squad in the division. He’s been incredible but I think it’s time for a fresh set of ideas.

— Jamie Clarke (@JamieC0383) October 21, 2025

It is worrying that this is a trend that has stuck around after 12 games. Early in the season, it could have been put down to ring rust and to players still returning to full fitness. Not anymore - about to enter the most hectic period of the season, Ipswich need to address these issues before it is too late; otherwise, they can kiss a top-flight return goodbye.