This Is Why Walsall Won’t Get Promoted This Season

Right now, it seems as if no team wants to get promoted from League Two. For the last few months, every time a club moves into the top three of the fourth division, they go on a horrible losing streak and fall back down the table. This issue has mainly affected Walsall and they are now in such a position that they could miss out on automatic promotion.

How Did The Season Start?

The first two months of the league season was a strong start for Walsall as they won six and lost two of their first eight games. Mat Sadler, who had become the manager in 2023 having been a player at the club for four years across two stints, had used the last few seasons to build a culture and a foundation at the club so that they could progress slowly. Their league positions over the last two years have demonstrated that, as they have gone from 16th before he joined, to 11th and now currently third in the league. The opening games of this season suggested that the patience had paid off and that this was the year that they would return to League One.

"Not sure if anyone’s mentioned this, but Mat Sadler took over a team that finished 16th with 55 points in 2022/23. He matched that total against Tranmere after 24 games, leaving 22 still to play.

We’re also 7 points off last season’s total of 65 points Food for thought! 👀

— The Saddlers Side (@TheSaddlersSide) January 19, 2025

When they lost 6-2 against Fleetwood Town at the start of October, there were some eyebrows raised as their previous good performances had totally disappeared in that match. Some managers would panic and let an embarrassing home defeat like that one completely destroy their confidence, however Sadler took that game and learnt from it. Between the start of October and the middle of January, Walsall went on a 16 match unbeaten run which saw them 12 points clear of the competition with a game in hand. In January, this kind of buffer zone is almost entirely unheard of. Their win streak included wins against fellow promotion hopefuls Port Vale, AFC Wimbledon, Doncaster Rovers and two over Notts County.

Walsall’s Form Takes A Nosedive

Since the 18th of January, when the club were 12 points and a game clear of the rest of the competition, Walsall have won just two matches. In those 16 matches, they have managed just 20 goals, down from 35 in their previous 16. The teams that they faced in that period weren’t even particularly difficult. They lost against Fleetwood and Swindon and drew against Gillingham and Bromley, all mid table teams. Their most embarrassing result was a 1-1 draw against rock bottom Carlisle, a team that haven’t been outside of the relegation zone for more than a week since October.

Carlisle United 1-1 Walsall ⚽️ A really entertaining match at Brunton Park. If the Blues do go down, it won't be through a lack of effort... pic.twitter.com/jnv6rD8ajb

— Joseph Gibbons (@JoeBillGibbo) March 4, 2025

Their 12 point gap disappeared quickly and all of a sudden teams such as Port Vale, Bradford City and Doncaster Rovers were sniffing around them. Six of their last nine games have ended in a draw, with the other three being losses. That kind of form has seen them fall to third in the table and now are four points off Port Vale in first. There is real congestion at the top of League Two, as seven points separate the teams from second to seventh. The likes of Grimsby, Colchester and even Chesterfield are fighting for play-off places, but could still technically earn automatic promotion.

Standout Players

They say never fall in love with a loan player, and this season Walsall fans have had to experience that in full force. Nathan Lowe joined the club from Stoke for the season back in the summer, but after scoring 15 goals in 22 league appearances, he was recalled as the Potters were struggling in the Championship. This happened in January and that is when Walsall’s form fell off. Walsall are quite obviously not a one man team, but Lowe was certainly their most important player, and having to adapt to playing without him has been very difficult.

35-year-old Jamille Matt has tried to fill in the gaps left by Lowe, but he has nearly double the amount of league games for Walsall this season and just 12 goals to his name. Matt is an old school EFL forward, having netted over 100 times in League One and League Two for eight different teams across his career. He has been at Walsall for nearly two and a half years, but is only now getting to start regularly, and that is mainly down to Lowe being recalled by Stoke.

Taylor Allen calmly dispatching his tenth goal of the season yesterday 👏#Saddlers pic.twitter.com/7jSx6AkTWC

— Tom Bowen (@TomBowenJourno) April 6, 2025

Surprisingly, the player at Walsall who has the second most goal involvements this season is centre back Taylor Allen. The 24-year-old was once highly rated in English football, turning down offers from numerous Premier League clubs to sign for Forest Green Rovers back in 2019. Primarily a centre back, he has had to play as a holding midfielder and a full back this season too. He has 10 goals and seven assists to his name this campaign, most of which have come while in his favoured position. It is quite likely that he won’t be at Walsall next season and judging by his performances in the last year, he wouldn’t look out of place in the Championship.

What Do The Stats Say?

Walsall are by far the league’s top goal scorers this season, with 72. That’s 10 higher than the next most. On top of that, they have an incredibly high shot conversion rate with just Newport County beating them on that front. Their clinicality in all aspects of their game has been the focal point of their tactics all season, as they have the third lowest possession stats in the whole league and the fourth least complete passes too.

What has let them down significantly in recent months has been their defense. They have conceded an xG of 37, the second lowest in the league, but in reality they have conceded 49 goals. The difference between their expected goals against and their actual goals against is a whopping 12 goals, more than all of their close competitors in the league. As a team that tends to play counter attacking football, they don’t tend to keep the ball near their goal too often, however they have still conceded four goals this season that have come from a defensive error, despite only conceding eight shots from such scenarios. Of all the teams currently in the top six, Walsall are definitely the worst in this situation.

What Next?

Walsall’s form is currently atrocious, with just two wins since January. In that time, the majority of their games have ended in draws, which is why they are still in contention to finish inside the top three in April. On paper, their remaining five fixtures don’t look particularly tough, with games against Barrow, Harrogate, Newport County, Accrington Stanley and Crewe Alexandra still to come.

They should theoretically win most of those games, however they did fail to beat Carlisle earlier this season so nothing is off the table. With the teams around them picking up some form at the perfect time, it is likely that Walsall will need to win at least three if not more of their final five games, and judging by their recent result, I just don’t think that’ll happen.