Was Nottingham Forest’s Dip In Form Always Coming?

Was Nottingham Forest’s Dip In Form Always Coming?

Nottingham Forest were looking on course for a historic third place finish in the Premier League just a month ago, however, one win in their last five league games has seen them drop to sixth, with more experienced clubs starting to overtake them.

Their recent form also jeopardised their cup run too, leaving them just the league to focus on with a handful of matches remaining. Did Forest not have the nerve for a strong finish to the season, or was this dip in form always coming?

Over Performing xG

The first statistic we are going to look at is Nottingham Forest’s expected goals. According to Opta, xG is calculated by using the model to estimate the probability of a shot being scored, based on historical data from their database. The information they use here is captured on similar shots in the past. They are predicted to have scored three less goals than West Ham, however, Graham Potter’s side have under peformed theirs by 4.17, and Forest over performed by 11.67- which also happens to be the largest over performing side. As you can see in the table below, the Reds have been calculated as having the sixth lowest expected goals in the division with 41.33 in comparison to their actual tally of 53. This means that despite having less xG than almost three-quarters of the Premier League, they still find themselves in sixth. So why is that?

(Original Source: Opta)

It could be an over-reliance on their Kiwi-forward Chris Wood, as his xG is 11.4, yet he is the fourth highest scorer in the division, with 19- a difference of 7.6. Although being closely rivalled by both Bryan Mbuemo and Matheus Cunha of Brentford and Wolves respectively- and of teams who are ranked second and third on xG over performers, Chris Wood stands alone at the top. What may help this over performance on xG, shots taken. The New Zealander has only taken 56 attempts on goal- the least of any positional peers who have played regularly for their clubs.

(Original Source: Opta)

xPTS Over Performers

Next up, we take a look at expected points. This statistical model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in each match based on the expected goals (xG) value of every shot taken. So, this model basically just takes xG further, by associating it with xPTS it tries to predict how teams would perform had results gone the way xG has expected them to.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s side sit 14th on this table, on an expected points total of 45.1. Whereas they actually find themselves on 61- 15.9 more than the xPTS expects them to be on. This demonstrates how they would be doing had they performed their xG as expected to. So, what you could say is, Nottingham Forest’s xPTS are just catching up to them. An example of this includes their 4-2 victory against Ipswich, they had an xG of 1.52 yet scored four. There have only been a handful of games this season where the Tricky Trees have actually had a better xG than their opposition, which is why they are expected to be in 14th place in the Premier League.

(Original Source: Opta)

The reason their form may be in a dip at the moment could come down to many factors. These may include not significantly over performing their xG every game recently, or their defence perhaps not picking up as many clean sheets as in previous weeks.

For example, in December, Forest won five out of six games- making three clean sheets. The two games they won and did not make a clean sheet, they scored three with an xG of 0.83 and two with an xG of 0.9. The game they lost, they conceded three and failed to score. So, as soon as either the defence falters or the attack fails to produce, Forest’s results seem to follow.

Over Reliance On Key Players

Finally, a third reason why Nottingham Forest’s form dip was coming, is because of an over-reliance on individual or other key players. A brief example from last season, and why it may be difficult to keep the form up for long periods of time, is Cole Palmer for Chelsea. Last season, the starlet sure made a name for himself in his first full Premier League campaign. He scored 22 times and provided 11 assists in 33 games for the Blues, single handedly carrying them to seventh place. So, if only certain players are performing and not the team, it does not always correlate into long-term results. Since, this season, Palmer scored his first goal since January on the weekend, but the only difference this time is that Chelsea are working together as a team and are still able to keep pushing and find themselves in with a chance for top 4.

Chris Wood is having a similar time of it in Nottingham this year. He has scored 19 goals this season, with most of these coming when his team were getting results. However, he is currently in a slight dip in form himself, scoring twice and assisting once in his last nine appearances. And so, as we have foreshadowed, Forest’s dip in form has followed, since within these games, they have won three, drawn two, and lost four- falling from third to sixth in the process.

(Original Source: footballwebpages)

In Forest’s first 20 matches of the season, they kept a clean sheet in 45% (9) of those games. This form from the defence saw the Reds pick up 40 points from this start and sit joint second with Arsenal with Liverpool ahead by six points. Wood also scored 12 goals to this point and was challenging for the golden boot, so everything was looking in place for Forest heading into the second half of the season… right?

Well, in their 15 games since then, they have managed just four clean sheets- a percentage of just 26.66%, a significant decrease of 19%. It does not end there, as this form defensively has also impacted their results as we have mentioned- collecting just 21 points. This means they have gone from an average of 2 points per game to 1.4.

Who will qualify for the Champions League? 🤔

With three games remaining, this is how the Premier League table stands - from second to seventh.#BBCFootball #UCL pic.twitter.com/zAU23Zj1KF

— Match of the Day (@BBCMOTD) May 6, 2025

One underlying stat here, however, is that in their last 15 games, their goals tally has stayed similar, but it is the defence which is letting them down since January, conceding 23 times in 15 games compared to just 19 they conceded in the opening 20 matches. What we can take away from this, is that in the first half of the season, the team worked efficiently up front, while staying compact and impressive at the back, working their counterattacks very well and making them hard to defend. Since January though, they have been figured out and are conceding more and having to find different avenues to score when Chris Wood is not scoring as much as before.