Why This World Cup Looks Set to be One For the Underdogs

Why This World Cup Looks Set to be One For the Underdogs

Right – all of you lot who said, 'The 48-team format will make the World Cup less competitive’ owe us all an unfiltered, shameless, 'I was wrong' apology.

Everyone who said the expanded 48 team World Cup would be less competitive can crawl back underground now please 🙏 pic.twitter.com/u3nc4Esxc1

— Harry (@HarryPascoe6) June 15, 2026

Yes, Curaçao may have been battered 7-1 at the hands of Germany, and Tunisia was turned inside-out by a 5-1 defeat to a rampant Sweden. However, aside from those games, virtually every other clash has proven too close to call for much of the game, with even the most underhyped nations proving they are capable of holding their own.

We all know from tournaments past that the World Cup is THE stage for an upset – Argentina lost to a massively underhyped Saudi Arabia side before winning the whole thing in 2022, while Costa Rica, Morocco, South Korea and Bulgaria have all pulled off a string of shock results in tournament which for some, still linger in recent memory.

However, the sheer volume of shock results in the first five days of the tournament has surprised even the most optimistic experts by surprise – the 2026 World Cup looks set to be one for the underdogs, and we are here for it.

Giants Felled

Where else can we start if not with Cape Verde’s miraculous, destiny-defying clean sheet against tournament favourites Spain? After all, it isn’t often that a 40-year-old goalkeeper becomes a World Cup hero, earning his country their first ever point in the competition in the process.

Written off before they had even played a game and consigned to finishing bottom of Group H with a goal difference more akin to a cricket score than anything remotely football-like, Cape Verde looked bound for disappointment this summer, with Curacao's loss to Germany serving as a graphic warning sign.

However, the former Portuguese colony instead provided football fans with a much-needed sense of uncertainty, of randomness, making them question whether they actually knew what they were talking about when it came to the noisy underdog debate.

For all of their Tiki-Taka background and European top-flight pedigree, Las Rojas couldn’t crack a nation ranked 67th in the world despite tallying 27 shots at goal, with seven of them ending up on target. By comparison, the tiny island nation managed six shots, with just one of them, a stoppage-time header, on course to find the net had it not been for Unai Simon.

Cape Verde’s stubborn, obstinate, and incredibly well-organised defensive effort begs the question – is there a strategy that could see underdogs actually progress in the tournament?

Cape Verde certainly wasn't the most exciting side to watch in terms of attacking football, as much of the 90 minutes was spent with 11 men behind the ball and having less than 30% of the possession.

And yet when they did (eventually) pick Spain's pockets and look to counter-attack, there was an undeniable sense of expectancy in the stands. Every time the Blue Sharks advanced, they looked dangerous and, arguably more importantly, unpredictable.

Their runs forward were different every time; a variety of players found themselves involved in attacks, and they even took a shot from their own half, albeit a long way wide of the post.

Of course, for these smaller sides to upset the established giants, there is always an element of luck involved, and the luck in this case came in the form of Vozinha, the 40-year-old goalkeeper who throughout his career has filled the net in the Slovakian, Cypriot and Portuguese Leagues.

Look at the saves he was making man, no wonder they’re calling him the Cape Verdean Ochoa 😭 pic.twitter.com/iVLO2P7SJV https://t.co/0rxQgg8Qiz

— Ezzy (@EzzyMUFC) June 15, 2026

Despite approaching retirement age, Vozinha, whose full name is Josimar Jose Evora Dias, was throwing himself around without a care in the world, his cat-like reflexes and positioning reflective of every single one of his 40 years coming to the rescue for the mid-Atlantic minnows.

Cape Verde’s performance against Spain reiterated to every side at the tournament that, as long as they are disciplined, alert, and willing to put their bodies on the line for the country rather than protect their new haircut, then they have the opportunity to secure themselves a position in their international hall of fame – every single player who took to the pitch for Cape Verde on Monday will forever be considered legends of the game on their home islands.

Back to the Draw-ing Board

There have been very few shocks in terms of actual victories at the tournament so far, with many of the more surprising results seeing the two competing nations share the spoils.

It has just reinforced to the footballing world that, while some nations may be clear and obvious favourites, football very rarely goes entirely to plan, with underdogs looking to make names for themselves around every corner.

Switzerland found that out the hard way against Qatar, conceding a 90+4 equaliser against Qatar to see their hopes of topping Group B severely dashed. In fairness, they got what they deserved – having sleepwalked through the second half, their cockiness, almost entitlement to a win, came back to bite them, and Qatar, though far from competitive in the game, showed that even the most confident teams are not immune to slip-ups.

Egypt’s draw with Belgium was a far more evenly contested game. Though the Pharaohs naturally took on the role of the counter-attacking little guy, Belgium’s sloppiness and wasteful finishing meant that for a sizeable chunk of the game, Egypt were threatening the Red Devils' goal. Though the game ended in a 1-1 draw, no one would have been surprised had Egypt found the net for a second time near the end.

Egypt is dominating both in performance and on the scoreboard so far! A historic, brilliant goal by Emam Ashour from a magical assist by Abu Salah pic.twitter.com/RhxwKA84TG

— khaled mahmoued (@khaledmahmoued1) June 15, 2026

Iran's 2-2 draw with New Zealand poses as yet another example of a shock outcome. Despite being ranked 65 places behind Iran in the FIFA rankings, New Zealand played with zero fear and maximum passion, and despite the discrepancy between their rankings, it ended up being one of the most entertaining, evenly contested games of the tournament so far, ending 2-2.

End-to-end action, super saves, unbelievable defending, and superb finishing – all were on display as the tournament’s lowest-ranked side twice took the lead through composed Elijah Just finishes, just reinforcing that if you’re considered a bigger team at this tournament, you are never entirely safe.

Saudi Arabia, Ivory Coast, Australia, Bosnia and Herzegovina – the list of overperforming underdogs goes on, and we still have four groups' worth of fixtures to go, with the likes of Uzbekistan, Ghana, Jordan and the DR Congo still to come.

It’s a stretch to say that we will see any of these underdogs in the later stages of the competition. It would be silly to get carried away before Matchweek 1 has even ended, and the quality and depth in the competition are truly jaw-dropping.

Underdogs exceeding expectations is the best possible outcome for a World Cup, particularly this one. It shows that despite the increase in diversity at the tournament, the competitive level remains the same, and if anything, the unpredictability that these upsets bring only increases the marketability.

A template has been created for how these smaller nations can upset the apple cart, and if Match Week Two brings a similarly surprising set of results, then we will have no choice but to start rethinking our early tournament predictions. Let's just hope that Panama, Ghana and Croatia don’t get any similar ideas.