Croatia vs Italy: Team News, Analysis and Predictions

Croatia vs Italy: Team News, Analysis and Predictions

24/06/24 16:18

Croatia vs Italy Predictions

Bottom place Croatia take on Luciano Spalletti’s Italy in Leipzig in a bid to get through to the round of 16 of EURO 2024. Right now, Spain have already qualified as group winners, but it is still possible for two out of the other three teams in this group to go through to the knockout stages.

After giving up a 2-1 lead against Albania on Wednesday, the Vatreni have a lot of work to do if they want to make it out of the group of death. Interestingly, the last time Italy beat Croatia was in 1942, so hopefully for Zlatko Dalic’s side this record will continue past today.

Whilst Croatia have a hard task to get out of this group, the Azzurri’s path to the knockouts is pretty straightforward - they just can’t lose. If they win or draw, they will go through to the round of 16 in second place, where they would face Switzerland on the 29th June.

This match is set to be a pretty fiery one as neither side can afford to lose the match.



If Croatia want to get through to the round of 16, ideally they need to beat Italy, and Spain to beat Albania; then the Vatreni would go through as runners-up. If Croatia win but Albania beat Spain, then Croatia and Albania will be joint on points and it will be down to goal difference, with Italy finishing bottom.

If Croatia draw with Italy and Spain beat Albania then Croatia have a slight chance of getting through in third place, but they wouldn’t want to rely on that.

If Italy want to get through to the knockouts, the simplest thing to do is not lose - a win or draw would get them there. However, if they were to lose, they could still go through in third place, as long as Spain don’t lose to Albania as well, in which case the reigning champions would finish bottom of the group and be knocked out of the tournament.


There are no fresh injuries for Dalic to deal with, however with the underwhelming performances we have seen from Croatia thus far, we could see a couple of changes made to the starting XI, perhaps replacing one of the midfielders with someone slightly younger to add a bit more pace and energy - perhaps bringing in Luka Sucic could help with this.


The Azzurri also have no new injury concerns. Italy have also not performed up to their usual standard so far in this tournament, so we could see a couple of players replaced in the starting XI.


The two sides have faced each other nine times in all competitions, with Croatia winning on three occasions, Italy winning once, and five of the fixtures ending in a draw. The most recent clash being a EUROs qualifying match back in June 2015 in which Mario Mandzukic and Antonio Candreva each scored a goal for their country to make it a 1-1 finish.


Croatia 1-2 Italy

This match is set to be tight with both teams fighting for a win to carry on their campaigns in this tournament. I think it will be an exciting match and although I would love to see Luka Modric progress further in what could be his final international tournament for his country, I think Italy will just edge this contest, perhaps with a late winner. Either way this group is going to chop and change a lot over the course of the 90 minutes playing.

Benji Kosartiyer
Lily Perrill



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