Who Has The Highest xG In The Premier League So Far?

xG, also know as "expected goals," is a measure based on how likely an attempted shot is likely to hit the back of the net. It is based on factors like where on the pitch the shot is taken from, the angle of the shot, the type of shot and context like open goals or if a player is covered by defenders. The scale ranges from 0 to 1, with 0 being an impossible no chance of scoring and 1 being a clear cut goal.

Whether you love it or hate it, xG has become a valuable tool to see which players are performing at their peak or which ones are massively underperforming. Here at Football Park, we're taking a look at top five players with the highest xG in the Premier League so far. Some of the results might shock you.

5 – Kai Havertz – Arsenal

Now into his second season with Arsenal, Kai Havertz has been flourishing in the early games of the 2024/25 Premier League season. With his help, The Gunners sit third in the league standings, just above Aston Villa due to goal difference.

🔴⚪️✨ 4th Premier League goal this season for Kai Havertz, 7th goal in all competitions…

…and 20 goals as Arsenal player. 🇩🇪 pic.twitter.com/12q3w85CXk

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) October 5, 2024

Havertz has accumulated an xG of 4.4 which is true to his goal tally of 4 goals in the Premier League. Those goals have come against Wolves in his opening game of the season, Brighton and then back to back games versus Leicester City and Southampton in Matchday 6 and 7. He is really starting to come into his own this year, securing his spot in Mikel Arteta’s starting lineup and more goals will definitely start to come his way, potentially hitting double figures by January.

4 – Cole Pamler – Chelsea

After having a phenomenal season last year, finishing second in the Premier League Golden Boot race with 22 goals , “Cold” Palmer has been on fire again this season. The Englishman has picked up where he left off and is continuing to score goals, also achieving the Premier League Player Of The Month for September.

BREAKING: Cole Palmer is the EA SPORTS Player of the Month for September 🥶 pic.twitter.com/dqn2LGCm9c

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) October 11, 2024

Cole Palmer has scored 6 goals in his 8 appearances so far, including 4 in the first half versus Brighton. He is outperforming his xG of 4.7 goals and has played a massive role in helping Chelsea climb to sixth place in the table. It’s not just “chippy chips” he knows, its goals as well and at this rate he could challenge for the Golden Boot once more this season.

3 – Mohamed Salah – Liverpool

Mo Salah is one of the best wingers that the Premier League as ever seen so it is to no avail that he is in the top five players with the best xG. His lowest goalscoring season in a Liverpool shirt has been a measly 19 goals and it seems like he is going to have another great season again, this time under the tutelage of new manager Arne Slot.

🔴🏹 Mo Salah scores his 7th goal in 11 games this season so far, perfect penalty…

…and it’s his 8th goal against his former club Chelsea. pic.twitter.com/ktKombmbr9

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) October 20, 2024

This list isn’t for goals and assist but in the 8 games that he has played, Salah has bagged himself 5 goals and also provided 5 assists. The Liverpool star has an xG of 4.9 which is true to his current tally and with the Merseyside based side looking in incredible, winning 11 out of the 12 games they have played across all competitions, Salah could go on a run of goals once more and look for his fourth Premier League Golden Boot this campaign.

2 – Nicolas Jackson – Chelsea

Some Chelsea fans have been reminiscing about Dider Drogba whilst watching Nicolas Jackson this season. An African striker grabbing important goals at Stamford Bridge feels like the early 2010s again. Jackson has made a massive improvement to his game since last season where he scored 2 goals in the first 8 games.

🔵🇸🇳 Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink: "If Nicolas Jackson fulfils his potential, he will be a £150 million player".

"I’m convinced of that". pic.twitter.com/pG7OlIsRs1

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) September 29, 2024

This time around he has scored 5 in 8 games with an xG of 5.5, even so slightly underperforming. However, he is still having a great output and is responsible for 29.4% of Chelsea’s 17 goals in the Premier League. The world is at his feet at the moment and with the Chelsea attack in great form, he could go onto having his greatest scoring season of his professional career so far, beating his 14 goals last year.

1 – Erling Haaland – Manchester City

Who else? Erling Haaland could go down as one of the Premier League’s greatest ever strikers depending on how long he wants to stay at Manchester City. The Norwegian has achieved consecutive Premier League Golden Boot wins from the two season he has spent at City and he is definitely the favourite to win it again this season.

Haaland after becoming the all-time top goalscorer for Norway. 😃👍 pic.twitter.com/fB48zbrZY6

— EuroFoot (@eurofootcom) October 10, 2024

He became Norway’s all time top goalscorer over the international break and has gone on to score 43 goals in 42 UEFA Champions League appearances with his brace against Sparta Prague last night. But, turning the attention to the Premier League and Haaland has put the ball in the back of the net 10 times in 8 games, including back to back hattricks against Ipswich and West Ham in Matchday 2 and 3. His xG of 6.5 is much lower than his tally, showing that he is just made for scoring goals.

Honourable Mentions

There have been other players that have been outperforming their xG that might have gone under the radar. Liverpool’s Luis Díaz has an xG of 2.8 but has 5 goals to his name. Similarly, Nottingham Forest’s Chris Wood has scored 5 goals this season but his xG of 3.4 suggests that he should have less goals than he does.

Some underperforming players include the likes of Manchester United’s Joshua Zirkzee who has only scored once this season but has an xG of 3.1 and Bruno Fernandes who is yet to open his Premier League goalscoring account this season but has an xG value of 2.0.