Are Inter And Napoli Heading For A Final Day Shoot Out For The Serie A Title?

With just five matches remaining in the 2024/25 Serie A season, there is a realistic chance that we may see a play-off match to decide if the title will remain in the North of Italy or return to Naples. After being knocked out of all domestic competitions, the Serie A is all that remains for Antonio Conte’s Napoli side- so they are fully focused with putting all of their efforts into the last five games of the season.

Inter however, need to navigate their run-in very carefully, as they are currently in contention for a treble and are deadlocked in a semi-final tie against arch enemies Milan in the Coppa Italia with second leg taking place on Wednesday. And with their Champions League semi-final tie against Barcelona to come too, it will be very difficult for Simone Inzaghi’s team to come out of that with all three trophies.

As for the potential of the final day shoot out, here is how it works.

𝗥𝗘𝗣𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗦: Should Inter & Napoli finish the season on joint-points (currently both on 71), there will be a ONE OFF FINAL to decide who wins the Scudetto 🇮🇹🏆🤩 pic.twitter.com/Ieta48nlfD
— LiveScore (@livescore) April 21, 2025

How Does The Play-off Come Into Play?

When a league season draws to a close, if there are teams tied for first place, there are a number of tiebreakers which enter the scene as a way of deciding who will win the title. For example, tiebreakers include: points, goal differential, goals scored, head-to-head and so on.

The Serie A tiebreakers however, are different to what the Premier League uses. In 2012, Manchester City were awarded the title on a dramatic final day after having a better goal differential in comparison to Manchester United. The Italian top-tier uses points, then head-to-head record followed by a single-legged play-off match to act as a title decider.

As it stands, both teams are on 71 points with five to play, and they drew 1-1 home and away so if they match each other for the remainder of the season, the deciding play-off will be activated with the team who obtains the better goal difference hosting the title-deciding match. If level after 90 minutes, the game will head straight to penalties to decide the champion.

Tale of Two Seasons: Attack vs Defence

Inter lead the Scudetto race in terms of goals scored, finding the net with ease all season- led by some of Europe’s elite forwards in Marcus Thuram and Lautaro Martinez, who have netted 26 times between them this term. Thuram is ahead of 93% of positional peers for shot-creating actions per 90, with Martinez ahead with 84% for shots taken.

The Nerazzurri led the Scudetto until the recent weekend, following a defeat at the hands of Champions League chasing Bologna in added time. This was just their fourth defeat of the campaign which put an end to their 13-game unbeaten run since mid-February. They will hope to settle their nerves with a win over Milan before continuing their run-in for the Serie A.

These three giants are the only clubs in Europe in the race to win a treble this season! 👀🏆3️⃣

🇫🇷 Paris Saint-Germain
🇪🇸 Barcelona
🇮🇹 Inter Milan

Who’s more likely to do it? 🤔🥇 pic.twitter.com/njujEAF4wm
— Football Tweet ⚽ (@Football__Tweet) April 19, 2025

Inzaghi’s side have not dominated Italy as much as last season, and because of that, they have rivals looking to take their crown.

As for Conte’s Napoli, their defensive stalwarts have allowed them to make a massive climb from 10th last season to now rivalling Inter for the title of Italy’s best. At the start of the campaign, he found himself in a similar situation to when he took over at Stamford Bridge, when he took a Chelsea side who were completely below-par, finishing 10th to winning the league title the following year. Then, he could rely on world-class talent in Diego Costa, Eden Hazard, and John Terry. However, in Naples, it has been much harder to achieve results, with him obtaining a squad which includes a number of Premier League rejects in Scott McTominay, Billy Gilmour, Romeu Lukaku, and Philip Billing. All of which who have been superb this season.

With Lukaku being involved in 22 goals this season, McTominay has also been clutch, scoring nine goals and being the second highest goal getter for Gli Azzurri. In addition, Billing’s 87th minute equaliser against Inter in early March has enabled the possibility of this play-off tie too. Napoli have also built brilliantly from the back, with Alex Meret currently leading the way for the Golden Glove, conceding just 25 goals in 33 so far and collecting 13 clean sheets along the way, looking completely impenetrable at times.

The Run-ins

Inter

Inzaghi will have the task of leading his side to play a variety of quality opposition. They have three home matches and two away matches, as they welcome both Rome occupants in Roma and Lazio to the San Siro. Both of those sides currently sit sixth and seventh and are still pushing for European football so neither match will be a walk in the park for Inter. Their other home match is Hellas Verona, who currently reside in 14th and have won just twice in their last 10 matches.

As for their away trips, they will not need to travel far, as they visit Torino and a very short trip to Como. Both sides have lost just two and three respectively as they have been in good form towards the season’s end.

No match will be easy at all for Inzgahi’s side and perhaps their most difficult opponent is up next, as they face Claudio Ranieri’s improved Roma outfit who have not lost in the league since December. If they can win that, there is no reason for them to drop another point in their last four.

Napoli

Napoli also match Inter’s schedule with three home matches and just two away trips. Starting with their toughest on paper in Torino, they have a much easier time of things, making them perhaps the favourites for the Scudetto with full focus on the league campaign. This is then followed by a trip to relegation-threatened Lecce who sit just one point above the drop zone and with no wins since January, it is very tough to see Napoli dropping points there.

Conte’s side will then host 13th placed Genoa who have only lost to Inter and Juventus in their last 10, followed by a trip to 16th placed Parma who have drawn each of their past five, including draws to both Inter and Fiorentina. Their season ends as they host Cagliari- another team who have struggled in recent times, winning just twice in 10.

Tale of the tape for the Serie A title race:

Inter has been better through the first 33 matches by quality metrics

However, Inter fixture pileup with looming Coppa Italia + Champions League might tip the scale

If the two teams finish tied on points, there will be a playoff to… pic.twitter.com/cwG4xLLFGD
— Anthony Dabbundo (@AnthonyDabbundo) April 21, 2025

Comparing run-ins and fixture congestion, Napoli are definitely the Scudetto favourites in my eyes with lesser opposition and no Champions League football to worry about. However, I defintiely have my fingers crossed for an epic tiebreaker for the first time since 1964.