League One Outright Predictions: Winners, Playoff Contenders, and Relegation Picks

As July draws to a close, the new EFL League One season is near. 2024/25 provided us with everything – from Shrewsbury Town’s dreadful time throughout, to titanic, record-breaking promotion for Birmingham and a continued Hollywood story for Wrexham. This season promises to deliver much the same if not more. This year’s table is harder to predict than any, with the fight for many clubs’ destinies expected to go right down to the wire.

From Cardiff and Luton looking to yo-yo, Bolton edging closer to a Championship return, and Stockport’s inspiring rise, the tussle at the top looks set to be truly chaotic. Elsewhere, Exeter City face a tough upcoming campaign, while Port Vale and Doncaster Rovers could be heading towards a return south in the divisions, in a relegation skirmish.

Here, Football Park provides a prediction table for everyone’s outright bets, including the latest odds from one of our partner bookies, Coral, who offer £20 in free bets when you bet £5. In this guide, we will offer context and in-depth reasoning behind each of our following title, promotion, and relegation selections, using summer activities and last season’s performances to gauge each side’s destiny in May as the EFL League One season gets underway this weekend.

👑 The recent roll of honour in #SkyBetLeagueOne...

Who will be champions in 2025/26? 👀#EFL pic.twitter.com/AAxYDKVQSA

— Sky Bet League One (@SkyBetLeagueOne) July 15, 2025

Title and Promotion Predictions

We will begin with our outright top six finishers, focusing primarily on the club’s who look likely to be in with a chance at fighting for the title or establishing a valid promotion push come May.

Luton Town – Predicted Finish: 1st Place

We begin with our favoured title candidate, in Luton Town. The Hatters endured a long, tough relegation dogfight last season, which ended in them being relegated on goal difference. This ended their stay in the top divisions of English football after they achieved the feat of going from League Two to the Premier League in just six seasons.

Following back-to-back relegations, it is no surprise to see the Hatters favourites to head straight back up, with some players still present in the squad who also featured in the promised land just two seasons ago. Matt Bloomfield remains in charge ahead of this season, and he has made eight additions to his side to add much needed depth and and quality to make up for some high-level departures. Thelo Aasgaard left for Rangers for €3.95m, while keeper Thomas Kaminski joined Charlton for €1.1m. To replace the latter, Josh Keeley has been added to Bloomfield’s arsenal, from Spurs’ U21s, while the pair of Nakhi Wells and Kai Naismith arrive on free transfers from Bristol City to add some Championship-level talent and experience down the spine. A mixture of seasoned professionals with young and exciting talents provides a well-thought out and calculated approach to a side bidding for silverware.

Luton are favourites to lift the 2025/26 League One trophy at 10/3, with a top two finish coming in at 13/8. The Hatters are eyeing up a demolition job of the third tier and will hope to challenge the strolling effort displayed by Birmingham last season. To guarantee a playoff spot, Luton lands odds of 1/3 to finish in any of the top six places as they seek to re-program their ascension to the Championship.

Our 25/26 fixtures in full 🫡 pic.twitter.com/2VME9aZkPF

— Luton Town FC (@LutonTown) June 26, 2025

Cardiff City – Predicted Finish: 2nd Place

Another side aiming for an instant return to the Championship, it’s Cardiff City. A miserable 2024/25 season saw a shocking drop to England’s third tier – marking the end of their 22-year stay in the top two divisions of English football. Last season was a difficult one to accept for Bluebirds fans, as they finished the campaign in last place, winning just nine matches all season long. They knew change was needed, and they found their man in the shape of ex-Manchester City U21’s coach Brian Barry-Murphy.

The Irishman previously managed Rochdale pre-Covid, before joining the Citizens for the past three years. He was appointed on a three-year deal, and his ambitions outline an exciting future as he aims to return to the Championship. Although no transfers have been made just yet, Cardiff certainly have the talent and depth in the squad to mount a promotion charge. With Callum Robinson and Yousef Salech expected to lead the line and feast upon Barry-Murphy’s desires to be an exciting team looking to win their games and offer the best entertainment for fans. The pair combined for 20 goals last season too, so for these reasons, we believe that the Bluebirds could edge out on automatic promotion ahead of the following selections.

The aspirations and promise provided by Cardiff land them with a positive chance at lifting the title, standing at odds of 15/2 offered by Coral, with the bookies tipping them odds of 8/11 to end the campaign in the top six, guaranteeing playoffs at a minimum. Odds of automatic promotion land at 10/3. Barry-Murphy’s ambitions are sure to lead to a thrilling 10-month long journey ahead of Cardiff as they aim to achieve an instant bounce back.

Huddersfield Town – Predicted Finish: 3rd Place

After returning to League One after 12 years last season, many had tipped the Terriers to head straight back up, until they lost eight of their last nine games, scoring just four in that period. There is a reason why they are our third place selection, however. They have set about rebuilding, refreshing a side which clearly couldn’t cut it during the most important part of the season.

Lee Grant was signed on a three-year contract in May, marking his first step into management, showing a sign of ambition and certainly a degree of risk. This managerial selection also reflects their activity over the summer window; replacing their 35-year-old shot stopper with a wealth of experience in the EFL, for a 21-year-old academy keeper in Owen Goodman from Crystal Palace on loan. They have opted for fresh faces in the backline too, with centre-halves in Murray Wallace, Joe Low, Jack Whatmough, and Josh Feeney adding a perfect mixture of youth and experience into the mix. The Terriers’ top bagsman last campaign, Josh Koroma, who scored 11 goals left on a free to fellow League One opposition, Leyton Orient. Grant has made use of the minuscule transfer budget by penning down a proven goalscorer in Alfie May from Birmingham City. The 32-year-old has scored 22 goals or more in three of the past four seasons, showing Grant’s ambition for his side to score more goals.

This is a completely new club compared to that of last season, and they have rebuilt in a way where they want to make a statement this season. We do believe that they can guarantee themselves a playoff spot, but the Terriers will miss out on automatic promotion. It is very tight between the three sides so far, with Huddersfield edging Cardiff on title odds, with 6/1. Meanwhile a chance for Grant’s sides to achieve a top six finish is 4/6, while chances at a top two finish lands at 3/1.

Here are all of Alfie May's goals for Birmingham last season:

⚽️ Goals: 1⃣7⃣
🅰️ Assists: 9⃣

His overall League One record:

🏟️ Appearances: 2⃣4⃣8⃣
⚽️ Goals: 8⃣9⃣
🅰️ Assists: 1⃣9⃣

How are you feeling about the signing, Town fans? 🤔#htafcpic.twitter.com/qQaYuDZWic

— Still Smiling: A Huddersfield Town Podcast #htafc (@stillsmilingpod) July 23, 2025

Bolton Wanderers – Predicted Finish: 4th Place

The Trotters narrowly missed out on a playoffs finish last term, ending 10 points adrift of Leyton Orient’s tally. A poor end to the campaign saw them collect just eight out of a possible 33 points. After coming so close to returning to the Championship just two years ago, they fell to eighth last season, something they will certainly want to put right soon, with some very smart business proving why we predict them make the playoffs this time round.

Steven Schumacher is experiencing his worst period as a manager, however, confidence in the new signings and the squad are high after a flawless pre-season. Out of their 10 new signings, everyone is 25 or younger, showing Schumacher will be trusting the youth this season. Loaning two promising youngsters from Chelsea and Brighton in Teddy Sharman-Lowe and Amario Cozier-Duberry alongside Wrexham forward Sam Dalby on a free transfer displays the quality arriving in abundance. Furthermore, the additions of Thierry Gale and Xavier Simons from Rapid Vienna and Hull City also sees the Trotters spending smart and offering these players chances for regular minutes.

These were the areas Schumacher was keen to improve, and it clearly did not matter that only one centre-back was signed following the departures of a centre-half and two right-backs after they conceded just twice in pre-season, however this could come back to bite them towards the back end of this long season. Coral have Bolton at odds of 11/1 to lift some domestic silverware, while at 10/3 for promotion back to the Championship. We have them selected as fourth place, and Coral believes they have a strong chance of finishing in a playoff position, standing at 11/10 odds to do so.

Stockport County – Predicted Finish: 5th Place

Stretching all the way back to the 2013/14 season, when Stockport resided in the National League North, they have increased their finishing position every season until last campaign. If this storyline continued, they would finish in the top two, or win the playoffs, but we believe that they may not receive automatic promotion to the Championship. They had an excellent campaign in League One last season, finishing third against all expectations, just five points behind Wrexham in second. After missing out on a one-off game at Wembley for promotion due to a penalty shootout loss, Stockport will be eager to give it a better crack this time.

David Challinor’s side are set up brilliantly from the back setting the foundations for their success. Challinor has set about adding more seasoned EFL talent to his side, adding the exciting Malik Mothersille and Tayo Eden from Peterborough. The backline has also been reinforced, adding both Arttu Hoskonen and Joseph Olowu on free transfers, as well as Corey O’Keefe on loan from Barnsley.

Hatters fans can be excited with the prospect of yet another promising campaign ahead, adding all the tools they need to mount another promotion charge, and they are expected to be well in the hunt for it when we get around to May. Coral reckons Stockport have a strong chance of a top six finish, coming in at 6/5, while a title bid is more farfetched, at 10/1. Chances for any sort of promotion come in at 3/1, suggesting Challinor has a perfect system in place for a joyous conclusion to this upcoming season.

Plymouth Argyle – Predicted Finish: 6th Place

There could have been many different clubs who could have nicked this final playoff spot in our prediction – Leyton Orient could make another promotion charge, Steve Bruce’s Blackpool could have a successful season at Bloomfield Road, or Wycombe Wanderers could look to return to the Championship. However, we have gone for a well-drilled Plymouth side, meaning we believe all relegated Championship clubs can expect strong bids for instant promotion.

There has been a lot of incomings and outgoings for the Pilgrims this summer, with new coach Tom Cleverley eager to rebuild this Argyle side and achieve instant results. Aside from the 33-year-old midfielder Jamie Patterson brought in from Coventry who will add a wealth of experience to this youthful side, they have also added nine other players 25 years old or younger. They have added the young central midfield pairing of Bradley Ibrahim from Hertha Berlin and Ayman Benarous from Bristol City to bolster their options in the middle of the park, with plenty of depth in the forward roles, as Aribim Pepple, Owen Oseni, and Xavier Amaechi look to prove their worth at Home Park as the Green Army can get ready for an exciting campaign.

Experience at the back, and young talent bursting with potential as we move higher up the pitch, it is a perfect blend for a team aiming for promotion. Coral have this Plymouth side at 4/5 to finish in the top six, and they stand at 8/1 for the League One title. Furthermore, alongside Stockport, Plymouth have odds of 3/1 to gain promotion, proving that Cleverley may have found the optimal recipe for success.

Plymouth Argyle are close to appointing Tom Cleverley as their new manager 🟢👔 pic.twitter.com/re782K2fuP

— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) June 12, 2025

Relegation Predictions

Now we have gone through our selections for our top six, we will move on to who we believe could be facing the dreaded drop, once again giving reasoning as to why we have chosen each team.

Northampton Town – Predicted Finish: 21st Place

Northampton almost suffered the classic second season syndrome of a team who gets promoted and does well in their first season in the league above but heavily underperforms in the following term. They landed just five points above the drop zone and had an underwhelming end to the season, picking up just 10 points in the last 10 games. They could have a tough season ahead after letting eight players go, and a further seven leaving on free transfers.

The Cobblers have made a few signings, however, none of them seem too promising. Although they have been active, none of the business conducted this winow has seemed all that smart. Teams bidding for promotion have the perfect blend of experience and youth, but all have that sense of quality. Their signings include four Premier League academy products alongside a multitude of free transfers from all over the EFL and below. Aside from Tyrese Fornah and Jack Burroughs, who arrive on frees from Derby and Coventry respectively, all other signings seem like the Cobblers are taking are sideways step at best.

Coral sides with our selection, backing a Northampton relegation with odds of 11/8, reflecting a tough battle ahead if they are to survive another season in the third tier. In order to prove themselves worthy of another campaign in League One, Northampton must target some more experienced players who have the quality to play in League One, but with such a tight budget, it is not going to be easy for them.

Exeter City – Predicted Finish: 22nd Place

Exeter are another side who may face an uphill battle to secure another season in League One. Gary Caldwell no doubt will be facing his toughest season yet in charge of the Grecians this term, with Exeter our second selection to face the drop in May.

Reinforcements have been very limited for Caldwell. With five players released and a further 11 players leaving either on loan deals or free transfers, it leaves Exeter looking fragile heading into their opener this weekend against Doncaster. Caldwell has gone all out on youth players this window, re-signing Joe Whitworth (21), Ethan Brierley (21), and Ryan Rydel (24) on loan, also adding Sil Swinkels (21) to that list. They have also added Luca Woodhouse from Wycombe and Jayden Wareham from Reading to solidify more options down the spine, but overall, it is not near enough firepower to have us believe they will have an easy time staying up.

As the season progresses and nears its conclusion, the pressure may get to these youngsters, and without solid experience in the squad, they may crumble and face a disappointing relegation. There is still much to do for the Grecians in the summer window, but as it stands, we see relegation back to League Two as their only outcome. Coral backs this idea, with odds of 7/4 for Exeter seeing the fourth tier once more.

HE'S BACK 🧤😍

Super @JoeWhitworth_1 returns for 2️⃣5️⃣/2️⃣6️⃣ on a season-long loan from @CPFC 🤝#ECFC #SemperFidelis pic.twitter.com/E9Nl5kLsdm

— Exeter City FC (@OfficialECFC) July 10, 2025

Doncaster Rovers – Predicted Finish: 23rd Place

Next up, we head to Doncaster, where we believe, they will struggle to adjust to life in the third tier and could also be facing stiff competition if they are to make a compelling case for their survival. Donny enjoyed an excellent season in League Two last year, as they won the title, following Walsall’s more than impressive fall from grace towards the end of the campaign, as Donny confirmed their crown on the final day.

Heading into the new season, however, quality at the back looks an immense issue for them. The highly rated Olowu departed for Stockport and Tom Anderson also left for Shrewsbury. In return, Donny have signed Matty Pearson from Huddersfield on a free transfer, as well as the young pairing of Seán Grehan and Connor O’Riordan to reinforce the backline. Aside from also adding Brandon Hanlan on a free from Wycombe, business has been relatively lacklustre for Doncaster, suggesting they may be underprepared for what is going to be an unforgiving next 10 months for them.

More improvements are definitely needed for Grant McCann, but if they are to make a bid for survival, Luke Molyneux will be a key player to hang onto, with the 27-year-old registering 28 goal contributions last season. Coral believes Doncaster will also face a massive struggle this season, providing odds of 3/1 for them to head straight back to League Two.

Your Sky Bet League Two champions

❤️ #drfc 🤍 pic.twitter.com/NJMxGBBQGE

— Doncaster Rovers FC (@drfc_official) May 3, 2025

Port Vale – Predicted Finish: 24th Place

Joining Donny in heading straight back down to League Two could be Port Vale. An excellent effort last campaign saw them also leapfrog Walsall but had their title chances fall through, due to a narrow loss to Gillingham on the final day. The Valiants are our 24th place pick, and this season is likely to be extremely challenging for Darren Moore’s side. Although they look to play smart in the summer window, and although we believe the intent is there to try and stay up, it could simply be too much for Port Vale.

The window has looked relatively dormant for them too, with only eight departing and seven arriving at Vale Park. They have only gone in for one young talent so far, in Rico Richard’s from Aston Villa on a free transfer, opting more for experience to help them stay afloat in third tier – the complete opposite approach from that of Caldwell’s Grecians. They have mainly acted on improving the spine of the side, adding Cambridge goalkeeper Marko Marosi, centre-forward Ben Waine, and centre-back Cameron Humphreys all on free transfers. These additions and their EFL experience could prove vital in helping Vale take their destiny down to the wire, as they look to defy the odds.

There is no doubt Port Vale have strengthened their side, but they may not have enough to avoid the relegation places this season. Coral are not on their side either, and have the Valiants favourites to go straight back down at 2/1.

Final Thoughts

As August nears, clubs do not have much more time to prepare for the upcoming campaign, with the summer transfer window so far offering great insight into some of the early prospects and expectations for many teams for the season. We have gone through the relegated Championship clubs, who face exciting seasons as they aim to push back into the second tier, while Stockport look to continue their season-by-season improving run by achieving promotion this season.

Meanwhile, Doncaster and Port Vale are expected to struggle to adjust to life in the league above, while Exeter and Northampton may not have done enough to secure survival by May.

No league is easy to predict, and the EFL League One is no different. This league is certainly not a foregone conclusion for any side in this list, and this season promises to be a campaign packed with surprises, upsets, and plenty of twists and turns around every corner.

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— Sky Bet League One (@SkyBetLeagueOne) July 30, 2025