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Why The Premier League Top Eight Race Is More Complicated Than You Think
Blogs

Why The Premier League Top Eight Race Is More Complicated Than You Think

Who Will Finish Eighth In The Premier League?

The title race may have been decided. He might already know who is going down to the Championship. However, one race that has reached its boiling point as the Premier League season nears its finale is the race for European football.

Two mini leagues at the top of the table – the top seven teams fitting for five places in the UEFA Champions League next season, and the teams behind them competing for the remaining spots in Europe.

AFC Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton, and Fulham fit that description as the quartet battle it out in the remaining three games of the season to finish 8th in the table. While 8th spot might not guarantee European football currently, if Manchester City win the FA Cup, it opens an extra spot in the UEFA Conference League for next season, and these teams could be the beneficiaries.

But, as the race for eighth place goes down to the wire, which of the four teams are best placed for the spot?

AFC Bournemouth (8th):

At one point in the season, it looked possible that AFC Bournemouth could have finished within the Champions League spots in this special season for Andoni Iraola’s side. Having already recorded a club record points haul, also picking up famous wins over Arsenal, Man City, and Spurs, the Cherries sit eighth.

Iraola’s side are in pole position to secure the last qualification spot, with one point separating the south coast side, Brentford, and Brighton in ninth and tenth. However, despite their league position, Bournemouth have not been in the best form in recent weeks, struggling throughout February and March, going without a win for eight successive games.

But after losing to Ipswich Town to start April, the Cherries are beginning to look more like their old selves, with five games unbeaten – including more important victories against Fulham at home, and a crucial victory away at the Emirates to record a league double against Arsenal.

Serial goal-scorers and an energetic young squad under Iraola. Bournemouth had seemed to run out of juice – top scorers Antoine Semenyo and Justin Kluivert struggling to get on the scoresheet. A win away at Champions League contenders Arsenal could provide a massive boost for the Cherries, but it does not get any easier.

Clashes with Aston Villa and Manchester City are up next, with Leicester City travelling to the Vitality Stadium for the last game of the season. With one point separating them from the rest, qualification is in the hands of Bournemouth, and the potential of European football on the south coast would be massive. However, their fixture list offers a great challenge. With that being said, if this season is anything to go by, Iraola’s side often play up to the level of their opposition, and three points in their last three games could be enough for the Cherries.

Brentford (9th):

Another small fish playing in a pond, bigger than their own. Brentford have been the dark horses for an eighth-place finish, with Thomas Frank’s side quietly sneaking past fellow competitors. The Bees are currently on a run of five games unbeaten while also winning their last three games.

Brentford’s season has been the epitome of mid-table success, having neither a fantastic nor a poor run of form but constantly picking up points. Many believed that Brentford would struggle this season with the absence of Ivan Toney. But that has been the furthest thing from the truth, with the London club’s attack being the Bees’ star factor.

Front threes are no longer a commonality in modern-day football, but for Brentford, they are synonymous. Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa, and Kevin Schade. The only front three in the Premier League football, with more than 10 goals each. Also, Brentford's top three scorers – combining to score 46 goals for the Bees.

However, Frank’s side are not only an attack. Since being promoted to the Premier League, the London club have not looked back, becoming a solid unit and threat from direct or set piece play. A 4-3 victory over Man United at the weekend, but the weekend does not quite tell the game’s true tale, as the Bees dominated their Northern counterparts in all xG charts.

Underrated is a word across the board for Brentford. Players like Keane Lewis-Potter, Nathan Collins, and Mikkel Damsgaard being crucial cogs in the system without gaining their deserved praise this season. Europe is not a necessity for Brentford this season, but it would be a welcome reward, with Ipswich, a decisive game against Fulham, and Wolves up next to finish the season.

Brighton (10th):

As his first season at the club approaches its near end, Fabian Hurzeler has been a positive appointment for Brighton, with the southern club sitting right in the middle of the Premier League table. Maybe the season has not quite lived up to pre-season expectations after an expensive summer window that saw new additions such as Georginio Rutter, Matt O’Riley, and Yankuba Minteh. But as three games remain, the Seagulls are still in the race.

Brighton came out of the blocks at a rapid speed under their German manager, winning their first two games and going unbeaten for their first five. A tricky spell in December saw the Seagulls fall from their early soaring heights, but a fantastic February pushed Hurzeler’s side back towards the Champions League.

Joao Pedro has been a standout at the Amex once again this season, the Brazilian netting 10 goals and assisting six in 27 Premier League appearances, while his experienced strike partner, Danny Welbeck, has also chipped in with nine goals. Conceding goals has been Brighton’s main problem – Bart Verbruggen having conceded 11 goals in their last five matches.

A trip to the Molineux to face Wolves is next up for Brighton, with clashes against Liverpool and Tottenham to follow. However, crucially, the Seagulls' chances of European football next season hugely depend on others, and Hurzeler’s side will depend upon Bournemouth and Brentford dropping points to be able to rise in the table, but with a tough fixture list themselves, it may be an uphill battle for Brighton.

Fulham (11th):

The outsiders in this race and eleventh place in the league, Fulham, are another team that have had a phenomenal season. Calvin Bassey, Antonee Robinson, and Alexander Iwobi have been the standouts, but Fulham have had several magic moments due to having a deep squad that allows rotational players such as Ryan Sessegnon and Rodrigo Muniz to thrive.

Inconsistent is a word to describe the Whites in recent weeks, winning two and losing three in their last five games. Fulham have been solid across the board throughout the season. However, with Raul Jimenez being the team’s top goal-scorer with 10, it’s clear to see that Marco Silva’s side lack the ‘star player’ or expensive firepower of a Bournemouth or Brighton, and even this season, Brentford, when it comes to attacking quality.

With three games remaining, a two-point gap to eighth-placed Bournemouth could be a difficult deficit depending on the form of the Cherries. Fulham first host Everton in an important fixture before a crucial game against Brentford that could decide the seasons of the two London clubs. Silva’s side end the season, hosting Man City at Craven Cottage in a tricky match-up.

Similarly to Bournemouth and Brentford, European football is not a must for Fulham. But the qualification offers extra money and player pull as the Whites continue to build and strengthen in the Premier League.

Who Will Win The Race?

Typically speaking, Bournemouth control this battle due to their league position, one spot and point ahead of their opposition, and if they pick up points within their final three matches, there might not be a race after all. They should be the favourites, but fixtures against Aston Villa and Manchester City could provide a stumbling block. Next, you cannot underestimate the form of Brentford. Scoring goals for fun, through their threatening attack trio, spearheaded by Mbeumo, the Bees come into the final period of the season as the most in-form team of the four. Thomas Frank’s side also having favourable fixtures in their final games, but there could be questions on whether this Brentford team are ready for Europe.

Brighton also have a puncher's chance, their summer spending and player quality, potentially being the difference maker. But Hurzeler’s side seem to have had the stem taken from their sales, following Pedro’s red card. Fulham look the least likely, having to rely on three teams’ results. Silva’s side have had a great season, nonetheless, but European qualification might be one step too far for this campaign.

Benji Kosartiyer
Journalist
Josh Wyatt-Jones

Content Writer

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