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Which Teams Are Winning (And Losing) The Championship On xG?

Scout Report

03/09/24 19:28

The EFL Championship season is well and truly underway now and slowly but surely beginning to take shape.

Teams that are destined to battle for the title or fight off relegation are being shown now but what if the table was based on xG?

Who would be on their way to promotion? Which teams would be destined for the drop? Well in this article I will explain exactly that.

The updated standings!#EFL | #SkyBetChampionship pic.twitter.com/pNMHL3LVFB
— Sky Bet Championship (@SkyBetChamp) August 31, 2024

1st - Leeds United

As it stands Leeds United would be top of the league if the table was based entirely around xG and this comes as no surprise.

Leeds are one of the teams many would expect to be promoted and with the amount of chances they tend to create and the amount they dominate the play in games there is good reason behind that.

Currently they sit 4th in the league however if it was based on xG considering they have the third highest xG in the league as well as the second lowest xGA in the league they would be topping it.

Is this an issue for Leeds? We wouldn’t have thought so. The stats suggest promotion is very much achievable for Leeds and although they may be underperforming slightly they should be safe candidates come the end of the year.

2nd - Middlesbrough

Interestingly second place is taken by Michael Carrick’s Middlesbrough.

Boro are currently in 7th place in the league having picked up 7 points from the opening 4 games. However they create a lot of chances and tend to dominate games. Their only issue really so far this season has been actually putting the ball in the net.

And that is shown even more by the fact that they have the second highest xG in the division. This as well as the third lowest xGA.

Middlesbrough will have to find a way of getting the ball in the back of the net more often and if they do that they could see themselves climb a lot higher in the table and potentially push for promotion at the end of the year.

Middlesbrough’s last 3 matches (all comps):

Middlesbrough (7.11) 2-8 (4.07) Opponents

xG Difference: +3.04
Goal Difference: -6

Unluckiest team in England? 😅 pic.twitter.com/zdOqa9J0Sh
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) August 28, 2024

Playoff Spots

3rd - Sunderland

Sunderland have had an extraordinary start to the season and that is shown even more through this placement.

Although they are apparently overperforming in terms of xG with them sitting top of the league in reality, the xG stats still suggest they could push for promotion this year.

They don’t have the highest xG itself by any means with an xG of just 5.0 however they have the lowest xGA in the league with 2.5. This is an unbelievable defensive stat.

They may be overperforming as it stands but they will certainly be happy and if they can continue that form they could be in for a pretty insane season.

4th - Millwall

Arguably one of the more shocking results on this list. If the league was based off of xG Millwall would see themselves sneak into the top 4 of the table.

This is most surprising considering in reality they are sat down in 15th place - just 2 points away from relegation spots.

But believe it or not Millwall have created a higher xG than any other team in the league with 7.9 xG to their name. Their issue instead comes from the amount of goals they concede. In fact the only thing keeping them out of the top 3 is their poor xGA.

📈Best xG performers last weekend (top four tiers):

3.62: ⚡️Walsall⚡️
3.22: Brentford
2.96: Stockport
2.64: Bournemouth
2.63: Millwall
2.45: Man City#Saddlers pic.twitter.com/VtFWencs9Q
— playmakerstats (@playmaker_EN) September 3, 2024

5th - West Bromwich Albion

Another team that may be overperforming slightly in reality is West Brom who find themselves 5th in this table.

West Brom currently sit second in the league but if it was based on xG they would be 5th. This is because, much like Sunderland, they have a fairly low xG itself but their xGA is very decent.

This something they will look to continue throughout the rest of the season.

6th - Queens Park Rangers

The final play off spot and once again it comes as a surprise with QPR sneaking into the top 6 despite being in 12th in the league in reality.

QPR’s xG is sat at 6.3 with the only thing letting them down being their xGA of 4.3 - or else they could be a lot higher in this table.

This showing that their slow start to the league season in reality - which has seen them win just 1 game - could be due to their struggle to keep the ball out of their own net.

If this is something they can get around they could greatly improve and potentially even push for promotion spots.

#QPR 4th for XG, 2nd for shots and 3rd for high recoveries 👏🔵⚪️ https://t.co/a4NL0dnVjr
— Chris Hermitage (@ChrisHermitage) September 3, 2024

Relegation

22nd - Preston North End

Preston are performing pretty much exactly as their xG would suggest they are.

Currently they sit in 21st place but their xG has them one lower in 22nd place. This is due to an incredibly high xGA. However in terms of points they are pretty spot on with their xG they should have picked up 3 points thus far which they have.

Preston are certainly desperate to start picking up points in the league or else they could be facing the drop come the end of the year

23rd - Portsmouth

This one may come as a surprise to some people but xG has Portsmouth facing the drop.

Although they are in and around those places Portsmouth certainly haven’t been a team mentioned as underperforming so far. Turns out they are overperforming their xG and should be closer to the drop than they are.

This comes as a result of their xGA being higher than any other team in the Championship. Currently they have an xGA of 8.8. This 0.8 higher than the second most team (who we will get onto)

Portsmouth’s failure to keep the ball out of the net could be their downfall this season. And although it is good that they are doing well in reality right now they may be closer to the drop than they may appear.

24th - Plymouth Argyle

It just had to be, didn't it.

Although they aren’t currently bottom of the Championship table thanks to 2 draws it is a bit of a surprise that they aren’t.

Plymouth Argyle have the second highest xGA in the league with 8.0 as well as the lowest xG in the league with 2.5xG. This suggests that they are greatly overperforming in the league right now.

Many have tipped Plymouth to go down this year and if it was based on xG they would be bottom of the league. And shockingly this comes as no real shock.

Ew @Argyle

4 games
0 wins
2 goals scored
7 goals conceded
Lowest XG for in the Championship
Highest XG against in the Championship https://t.co/ewor55pGq0
— Tanner Stevens (@tanner_sj) August 31, 2024