Over 2.5
Rennes 2 - 1 Lyon
Who will win?
1
Rennes
x
Draw
2
Lyon
France Ligue 1 serves up a heavyweight clash on 14 September 2025 at 19:45 GMT, as Rennes welcome Lyon to Roazhon Park. With both clubs boasting strong attacking units and a rich head-to-head history, this fixture has all the ingredients for a decisive contest in the early stages of the season. Football Park’s predictive model — the same trusted system used in our San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield analysis — leans towards a Rennes victory, backed by more than 53% probability.
In this preview, we break down key betting markets, past meetings, and algorithm-driven insights to give punters a clear, data-backed perspective on where the betting value lies.
Home Win Probability: 53.30%
Draw Probability: 20.00%
Away Win Probability: 26.70%
Correct Score Prediction: 2-1
Rennes to Win @ 2.62 – The model’s strongest value play, with over half of simulations favouring the hosts.
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 – A 55% likelihood of 3+ goals makes this a solid market for bettors seeking attacking value.
Match Goals Projection: 3.0 total, suggesting a wide-open affair.
First Half Outlook: A 73% chance of at least one first-half goal, with Rennes carrying a 46.7% probability of leading at the break.
Both Teams to Score: 56.7% likelihood, reflecting the consistent attacking threat on both sides.
Half-Time/Full-Time Projection: Home/Home result is the most likely, highlighting Rennes’ strong potential to dominate throughout.
18 Aug 2024: Rennes 3-0 Lyon
12 Nov 2023: Rennes 0-1 Lyon
16 Oct 2022: Rennes 3-2 Lyon
07 Nov 2021: Rennes 4-1 Lyon
09 Jan 2021: Rennes 2-2 Lyon
29 Mar 2019: Rennes 0-1 Lyon
11 Aug 2017: Rennes 1-2 Lyon
02 Apr 2017: Rennes 1-1 Lyon
13 Mar 2016: Rennes 2-2 Lyon
23 May 2015: Rennes 0-1 Lyon
Trend: Rennes have won three of the last four meetings at Roazhon Park, regularly hitting multiple goals against Lyon.
Home Win @ 2.62 – Backed by 53.3% probability, offering strong value compared to the market price.
Away Win @ 2.50 – Less convincing, with the model only assigning Lyon a 26.7% chance.
Draw @ 3.60 – The least likely outcome according to algorithmic projections.
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 – Supported by the 55% likelihood, consistent with recent head-to-head goal trends.
Both Teams to Score @ 1.62 – Reasonable given the 56.7% probability, but not the best value compared to Over 2.5.
Rennes to Win @ 2.62 – Data, home advantage, and historical form align strongly in Rennes’ favour.
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 – With both sides averaging high goal counts, this looks a reliable addition to weekend accas.
Venue: Roazhon Park, Rennes
Date & Kick-off: 14 September 2025, 19:45 GMT
Correct Score Prediction: Rennes 2-1 Lyon
Broadcast Details: Amazon Prime (France), international Ligue 1 broadcasters
Football Park’s algorithmic predictions highlight betting value, but football remains unpredictable. Always gamble responsibly and keep staking within your limits.
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