Away Win
Tigre 1 - 1 Defensa y Justicia
Who will win?
1
Tigre
x
Draw
2
Defensa y Justicia
Tigre host Defensa y Justicia at the Estadio José Dellagiovanna on Friday, 3 October 2025 (23:00 GMT) in the Argentine Primera División. The market leans slightly toward Tigre at home (2.45 odds), but Football Park’s model shows Defensa with a stronger edge – giving them a 30% win probability and a solid 50% chance to avoid defeat. A low-scoring draw is the likeliest scenario, with a 1-1 correct score the standout pick.
Date: 3 October 2025
Kick-Off: 23:00 GMT
Competition: Argentina Liga Profesional
Venue: Estadio José Dellagiovanna, Buenos Aires – a 26,000-capacity home of Tigre.
Referee: TBC
Argentina: TNT Sports
International: Fanatiz, Paramount+, Bet365 streaming
Home Win Probability: 20.0%
Away Win Probability: 30.0%
Draw Probability: 50.0%
Correct Score Prediction: 1-1
Both Teams to Score Probability: 50.8%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 21.3%
Half-Time/Full-Time Projection: Draw/Draw
Defensa y Justicia Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 1.53 – Strong value with Tigre’s struggles against this opponent.
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 – With just 1.7 expected match goals and low-scoring head-to-head trends, unders look very likely.
Expected Match Goals: 1.70
Over 0.5 Goals Probability: 78.8%
Over 1.5 Goals Probability: 57.5%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 21.3%
Over 3.5 Goals Probability: 16.3%
First Half Goals Projection: 0.48 (just 35% chance of at least one first-half goal)
Best Bet 1: Defensa y Justicia Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 1.53
Best Bet 2: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.57
Defensa have dominated recent meetings, winning 4-0 and 1-0 in 2024, while Tigre haven’t beaten them in over a decade. A tight, tactical battle is expected here, with a 1-1 draw matching the model’s projection.
At Football Park, our predictions use advanced analytics to identify value bets, but football remains unpredictable. Always gamble responsibly and never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Contact Sales