Atlético MG vs Palmeiras Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Match Details: December 4, 2025 | Arena MRV | Brazilian Serie A | 00:30 GMT

Atlético MG host Palmeiras in their penultimate Serie A fixtures, with plenty on the line for both sides. The hosts are vying for a spot in the Copa Sudamericana spots, a position that they currently hold, but there are plenty of teams chasing close behind them. Palmeiras, meanwhile, need to make sure they win both of their final two games and that title rivals Flamengo lose both of theirs. If this somehow occurs, Palmeiras will be the champions of the Serie A.

Key Betting Tips: Atlético MG Double Chance at 1.53 odds on talkSPORT BET, or 1.48 odds on Kwiff represent good value based on the tip provided by Football Park's algorithm.

Palmeiras have been in woeful form compared to the levels of performance they should be achieving, and they now look like they've missed out on two pieces of silverware to Flamengo in a matter of weeks. As long as Flamengo pick up a point against underdogs Ceará, then this game means nothing, so we think Atlético MG will win the mental battle in this game, which should see them pick up at least a point.

Atlético MG vs Palmeiras Predicted Lineups

Atlético MG Predicted XI (3-4-2-1): Everson; Junior Alonso, Vitor Hugo, Ruan; Guilherme Arana, Alexsander, Igor Gomes, Alan Franco; Dudu, Bernard; Hulk

Atlético are confirmed to be without Lyanco, Júnior Santos and Tomás Cuello, while late fitness checks will be completed on Caio Maia and Patrick to see if they will be in a good enough condition to play this game.

Palmeiras Predicted XI (4-4-2): Carlos Miguel; Joaquín Piquerez, Murilo, Gustavo Gómez, Khellven; Felipe Anderson, Emiliano Martínez, Andreas Pereira, Raphael Veiga; Vitor Roque, José Manuel López

Abel Ferriera's side will be missing six players in this game, half of which are out for disciplinary reasons. Those serving suspensions will be Facundo Torres, Anibal Moreno and Agustin Giay. Meanwhile, Paulinho, Lucas Evangelista and Vitor Figueiredo are suffering from injuries, so won't be fit to make an appearance in this one.

Atlético MG vs Palmeiras Current League Standings

The hosts are in a precarious position, where both Copa Sudamericana and relegation are very real possibilities come the end of the campaign. They hold a two point advantage over Ceará ahead of this tie, but it can take just one slip up to plunge them into the relegation scrap, of which they are only four points ahead of. Even though it is unlikely they will go down, given the amount of teams caught up in the battle, they'll still be doing everything they can to avoid that scenario and confirm their place in the Serie A next season. Sudamericana qualification would be a bonus.

Palmeiras have had such a monumental slip-up that they've effectively counted themselves out of the title race. The odds are massively against them to become the league champions as a result of five league games without a win, which has seen Flamengo run away with the lead. Just to rub salt in the wounds, Flamengo then beat them in the final of the Copa Libertadores, ensuring they take both pieces of silverware that the sides were fighting for. Qualification for next year's Libertadores has been confirmed, but they're fighting an uphill battle now.

Atlético MG vs Palmeiras Head-to-Head Timeline

Recent Head-to-Head Results:

Historically, games between these two sides have been very even, with proceedings ending level on 15 occasions. Atlético have garnered 13 wins, which beats Palmeiras and their tally of 11, so there clearly hasn't been a history of dominance for either side.

More recently, however, Palmeiras have had the better of Atlético, winning their last three encounters in a row. Having been unable to score against their opponent for two games in a row in 2023, they discovered how to find the back of the Atlético net with aplomb from then on, scoring nine times in the next three games.

• July 20, 2025: Palmeiras 3-2 Atlético MG (Serie A)
• September 28, 2024: Palmeiras 2-1 Atlético MG (Serie A)
• June 18, 2024: Atlético MG 0-4 Palmeiras (Serie A)
• October 19, 2023: Palmeiras 0-2 Atlético MG (Serie A)
• August 10, 2023: Palmeiras 0-0 Atlético MG (Copa Libertadores)

Atlético MG and Palmeiras Recent Matches Analysis

Atlético MG Last 5 Matches:

• Atlético MG 0-1 Fortaleza (A) - Serie A
• Atlético MG 1-1 Flamengo (H) - Serie A
• Atlético MG 0-0 Club Atlético Lanús (N) - Copa Sudamericana Final, Lanús win 5-4 on penalties
• Atlético MG 0-2 Red Bull Bragantino (A) - Serie A
• Atlético MG 3-3 Fortaleza (H) - Serie A

Atlético are in a pretty drab run of form at the moment, one that has led to slight concerns that they may drop out of the division, though it is still unlikely. They suffered penalty heartbreak in the final of the Copa Sudamericana to Lanús, but were able to respond with a strong performance that earned them a point against Flamengo, this season's Copa Libertadores champions. Only one goal in their last four is a worrying attacking output for the side to be displaying heading into such an important game against a good opposition, so Hulk and his fellow attackers will need to be firing on all cylinders in this game.

Palmeiras Last 5 Matches:

• Palmeiras 0-1 Flamengo (N) - Copa Libertadores Final
• Palmeiras 2-3 Grêmio (A) - Serie A
• Palmeiras 0-0 Fluminense (H) - Serie A
• Palmeiras 0-0 Vitória (H) - Serie A
• Palmeiras 0-1 Santos (A) - Serie A

Palmeiras have looked almost unrecognisable lately, with such a huge drop in form that they have just about handed the title to Flamengo. Though it isn't mathematically confirmed, they have two games to undo a five point deficit, which means winning both of their games and hoping that their title rivals lose theirs, an unlikely scenario.

Not only has their league form suffered, but they also suffered heartbreak on the CONMEBOL stage, losing to Flamengo in Peru. At least they've got that in common with Atlético. They also share a poor goalscoring record with their opponents, managing just two goals in their last five games. Two clean sheets in that time is encouraging at the back, but it hasn't been enough to pick them up the points they need.

Atlético MG vs Palmeiras Predictions

Our advanced algorithm analyses over 200 data points to generate these predictions with a 46.70% confidence in Atlético MG to Win, as well as a 26.70% confidence in a draw. The model factors in current form, head-to-head records, player availability, and tactical matchups.

Best Atlético MG vs Palmeiras Betting Tips

Football Park’s Best Bet: Atlético MG Double Chance @ 1.53 odds on talkSPORT BET - The visitors have been in such poor form and will probably still be disappointed from their loss in the Copa Libertadores final. Even though they are technically still in the title race, it's as good as over, whereas Atlético have a lot to fight for. We think this mentality difference will play a big factor in the outcome of this game.

Key Players to Watch: Atlético MG vs Palmeiras

Hulk (Atlético MG): You remember Hulk from Porto, right? Well he's still playing at 39-years old, and is putting up good numbers for his age. With seven goals and five assists in the Serie A this season, he has been useful going forward for Atlético, but he has really shone in the Mineiro competition, where he is the leading scorer. He'll be looking to translate that kind of form into this division for the final two games.

Carlos Miguel (Palmeiras): Having left Nottingham Forest this summer due to a lack of gametime, the goalkeeper broke into the Palmeiras starting line-up at the back-end of October and has looked incredibly impressive since. At 6'8'', Miguel has a dominant stature that has helped him register five clean sheets this season, while currently making on average four saves per game.

Atlético MG vs Palmeiras Match Facts

Broadcast Details: N/A

Referee: N/A

Stadium Information: Located in the city of Belo Horizonte, the Arena MRV opened two years ago and is home to Atlético MG. As the second largest stadium in the city, it has a capacity of 44,892.

Atlético MG vs Palmeiras: Final Prediction

Atlético MG 2-1 Palmeiras