Santos vs Vitoria Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips Predictions

Santos vs Vitoria Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Match Date: Tuesday, 21 October 2025 Kick-off: 01:30 GMT Competition: Brazil Serie A

Match Overview

Santos return to Vila Belmiro as clear favourites against Vitoria in what Football Park’s model predicts will be an attacking spectacle. The data gives the hosts a dominant 73.3% win probability, while Vitoria’s chances sit at just 6.7%, underlining the gulf in form and quality between the two sides.

Santos have been one of the league’s most effective attacking teams at home, averaging 2.6 expected goals per match, while Vitoria’s away defence has struggled to contain pressure, conceding multiple goals in five of their last six road games.

With 3.9 total expected match goals and a Both Teams to Score probability of 60%, this clash promises goals and entertainment.

Football Park Algorithm Predictions

Our machine-learning model — powered by xG data, possession metrics, and player performance trends — provides the following outcome probabilities:

Home Win Probability: 73.30%

Away Win Probability: 6.70%

Draw Probability: 20.00%

Both Teams to Score Probability: 60.00%

Expected Match Goals: 3.90

A projected Correct Score of 3-1 highlights Santos’ superiority, with Vitoria likely to find the net but struggle to contain the home attack.

Key Betting Tips

1. Santos to Win @ 1.62

Santos’ strong home record and offensive metrics make them one of the most reliable sides in Serie A when playing in front of their fans. The model gives them nearly a three-in-four chance of victory, driven by high shot conversion rates and consistent early scoring.

Vitoria have lost four of their last five away matches and conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game in that span. Recommended Bet: Santos to Win @ 1.62

2. Both Teams to Score @ 2.10

Despite their defensive issues, Vitoria have found the net in seven of their last eight league matches. Santos tend to concede even when in control, with a 60% BTTS probability in home fixtures this season.

Expect Santos to dominate but Vitoria to register at least one goal through counter-attacks or set-pieces. Recommended Bet: Both Teams to Score @ 2.10

Head-to-Head Timeline – Santos vs Vitoria Matches

03 Jun 2018: Santos 5-2 Vitoria

16 Oct 2017: Santos 2-2 Vitoria

17 Nov 2016: Santos 3-2 Vitoria

06 Sep 2014: Santos 3-1 Vitoria

24 Aug 2013: Santos 2-0 Vitoria

This fixture has historically delivered plenty of goals, with an average of 4.2 goals per match in the last five meetings. Santos have been dominant at home, winning four of those five encounters.

Statistical Breakdown – Santos vs Vitoria Predictions

Over 0.5 Match Goals: 90% probability

Over 1.5 Match Goals: 80% probability

Over 2.5 Match Goals: 55% probability

Over 3.5 Match Goals: 55% probability

Both Teams to Score: 60% probability

Over 0.5 First Half Goals: 73% probability

The offensive projection of 3.9 expected goals points toward another action-packed Serie A clash — especially with Santos’ tendency to start fast and maintain attacking pressure.

Betting Outlook

Football Park’s data model strongly favours Santos, who should control possession and scoring chances throughout. Vitoria’s open defensive structure suggests goals on both ends, but the home side’s superiority in attack should be decisive.

Predicted outcome: Santos 3-1 Vitoria Most valuable markets: Santos to Win and Both Teams to Score.

Responsible Gambling Message

At Football Park, we encourage responsible and mindful betting. Our statistical predictions are designed to inform, not promise outcomes.

Always set betting limits, treat wagers as entertainment, and play responsibly. For advice or support, visit BeGambleAware.org or your local responsible gambling organisation.