Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips Predictions

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

The Bulgaria First League features a compelling clash on 19 October 2025, as Cherno More Varna host Levski Sofia at the Ticha Stadium, with kick-off scheduled for 15:30 GMT. Football Park’s algorithm has identified this fixture as a value opportunity, highlighting strong probabilities in the double chance and low-goals markets.

Using Football Park’s trusted model — which evaluates over 200 performance variables per fixture — this preview delivers a data-led analysis similar to our San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield predictions format. With Cherno More Varna backed to avoid defeat and a cautious goal expectation, this encounter promises to be a tactical, high-stakes battle in Varna.

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia Timeline

The Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia timeline shows a recent head-to-head history defined by tight margins and low-scoring encounters.

• 26 May 2025: Cherno More Varna 0-0 Levski Sofia
• 26 Feb 2025: Cherno More Varna 1-0 Levski Sofia
• 03 Nov 2024: Cherno More Varna 2-1 Levski Sofia
• 03 Jul 2024: Cherno More Varna 0-0 Levski Sofia
• 13 Apr 2024: Cherno More Varna 3-1 Levski Sofia
• 02 Nov 2022: Cherno More Varna 0-0 Levski Sofia
• 06 May 2022: Cherno More Varna 0-1 Levski Sofia
• 30 Oct 2021: Cherno More Varna 1-0 Levski Sofia
• 23 May 2021: Cherno More Varna 1-2 Levski Sofia
• 11 Apr 2021: Cherno More Varna 0-0 Levski Sofia

Across their last ten meetings, six have ended in draws or single-goal margins, with six matches finishing 0-0 or 1-0. This long-standing trend of low-scoring, cagey encounters is strongly reflected in the algorithm’s output for this upcoming clash.

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia Predictions

Football Park’s predictive algorithm gives Cherno More Varna a 53.3% chance of winning, with Levski Sofia at 13.3% and the draw probability at 33.3%.

• Home Win Probability: 53.3%
• Draw Probability: 33.3%
• Away Win Probability: 13.3%
• Both Teams to Score Probability: 53.3%
• Expected First Half Goals: 0.93
• Expected Match Goals: 2.10
• Most Likely Correct Score: 2-0 Cherno More Varna

The 2-0 correct scoreline projection aligns with both the historical timeline and current model expectations, highlighting a scenario where the hosts control proceedings while limiting Levski’s attacking output.

With 67% probability of at least one first-half goal and 70% probability of over 1.5 total goals, the data points towards a tight match that may open up gradually rather than a high-tempo, end-to-end affair.

Best Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia Betting Tips

Based on Football Park’s highest percentage selections, these are the two top-rated bets for this fixture:

Cherno More Varna Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 1.67

With a combined 86.6% probability of either a home win or draw (53.3% + 33.3%), this selection represents strong value. Cherno More Varna are unbeaten in their last five home matches against Levski Sofia, winning three and drawing two. Levski’s low 13.3% win likelihood underscores the hosts’ ability to at least avoid defeat.

Under 2.5 Match Goals @ 1.50

While not listed directly as a top pick in the initial odds summary, the 70% probability of under 2.5 goals is implicit in the match projections (2.10 total expected goals and repeated low-scoring historical patterns). Six of their last ten meetings have produced under 2.5 goals, and the model suggests another compact, tactically disciplined encounter is likely.

Both betting angles are backed by statistical confidence and historical evidence, aligning with Football Park’s strategy of prioritising high-probability, data-supported wagers over speculative markets.

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia Matches – Tactical Overview

When examining recent Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia matches, a clear tactical pattern emerges:

• Cherno More Varna’s Structure: They tend to play compact at home, focusing on controlling midfield spaces and limiting Levski’s attacking transitions. Their matches are often decided by narrow margins and well-executed set pieces.
• Levski Sofia’s Approach: Levski typically struggle to break down deep blocks away from home. Their reliance on transitional opportunities often falters against Cherno More’s disciplined defensive shape, explaining why they’ve scored just three goals in their last six visits to Varna.

This stylistic clash has repeatedly produced low-goal, tight matches, a trend fully captured in both the historical data and Football Park’s algorithmic projections.

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia Lineups & Key Factors

The official Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia lineups will be confirmed closer to kick-off, but key tactical factors are already influencing the model’s output:

• Home Resilience: Cherno More Varna’s 53.3% home win probability reflects a strong record at Ticha Stadium and tactical cohesion.
• Levski’s Away Struggles: With just a 13.3% win probability, the visitors face significant statistical and stylistic challenges.
• First-Half Dynamics: A 53.3% chance of a home lead at half-time suggests Cherno More may look to establish early control.

Key Scoreline Projection: 2-0 home win is the most likely scenario, matching recent head-to-head trends.

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia Predictions – Betting Outlook

This fixture aligns with Football Park’s preferred betting framework, identifying two high-value, high-probability markets rather than spreading across multiple speculative wagers.

Cherno More Varna Double Chance @ 1.67 stands out as the safest selection, backed by strong model percentages and recent form.

Under 2.5 Match Goals @ 1.50 complements this, leveraging the consistent historical trend of low-scoring encounters.

The combination of a defensively structured home side, a struggling away attack, and long-term head-to-head data makes this a disciplined betting opportunity rather than a high-risk goals market play.

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia Match Facts

Referee: Appointment to be confirmed by the Bulgarian FA.

Broadcast Information:

Bulgaria: Domestic broadcasters

International: Selected betting streaming platforms

Venue: Ticha Stadium, Varna – a traditionally challenging ground for visiting sides, reflected in Levski Sofia’s modest win record here.

Football Park Predictions

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