Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets Prediction and Betting Tip Predictions

Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Levski Sofia face Ludogorets on 21 September 2025 at the Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov in Sofia, with kick-off at 18:00 GMT in this hotly anticipated Bulgarian domestic clash. These two giants of Bulgarian football have a storied rivalry, and our model expects another tightly contested affair.

This preview is powered by Football Park’s algorithmic model, which evaluates over 200 performance metrics — from team form to player availability — to generate data-led predictions.

The algorithm currently gives Levski Sofia a 53.3% chance of victory, with Ludogorets at 26.7% and the draw at 20%, indicating a solid home edge. With 2.10 expected match goals and a strong chance of late scoring swings, this could be a tactical and cagey encounter early before opening up after the break.

Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets Timeline

Examining Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets matches across the past few seasons shows how tight this rivalry has been:

• 17 May 2025 – Levski Sofia 2-2 Ludogorets
• 09 Feb 2025 – Levski Sofia 2-1 Ludogorets
• 26 May 2024 – Levski Sofia 1-0 Ludogorets
• 01 Oct 2023 – Levski Sofia 0-1 Ludogorets
• 28 Feb 2023 – Levski Sofia 0-0 Ludogorets

Levski Sofia have lost only once in their last five head-to-head meetings, including two home wins and one draw. This suggests they are currently better equipped tactically to edge this type of fixture — a point our algorithm reinforces with its 53.3% home win rating.

Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets Predictions

Here’s what our algorithmic model projects for this match:

Home Win Probability: 53.3%

Draw Probability: 20.0%

Away Win Probability: 26.7%

Correct Score Projection: 2-0

Expected Home Goals: 1.20

Expected Away Goals: 0.90

Expected Match Goals: 2.10

Both Teams to Score Probability: 46.7%

Over 1.5 Match Goals Probability: 70%

Over 2.5 Match Goals Probability: 45%

Over 3.5 Match Goals Probability: 5%

Over 0.5 First Half Goals Probability: 60%

Half-Time Draw Probability: 46.7%

This data suggests a low-scoring but controlled home win scenario, with the model expecting Levski Sofia to gradually break down Ludogorets after a potentially level first half (HT/FT prediction: Draw/Home).

Best Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets Betting Tips

Based on our projections, Football Park’s expert betting team highlight two standout value plays:

Best Bet 1: Levski Sofia to Win @ 2.45 With 53.3% win probability, our model identifies this as strong value against the implied odds.

Best Bet 2: Under 2.5 Match Goals @ 1.66 (market dependent) Given a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and only 2.10 expected total goals, the game leans towards a low-scoring tactical battle.

These two markets capture the most statistically sound angles: backing the home edge while anticipating a cagey, defensive clash.

Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets Match Facts

Match Odds: Levski Sofia 2.45 | Draw 2.80 | Ludogorets 3.20

Most Likely Scoreline: 2-0

Over 1.5 Match Goals Probability: 70%

Both Teams to Score Probability: 46.7%

Broadcast Details:

Bulgaria: Diema Sport

Europe: DAZN (selected territories)

Global: OneFootball (selected regions)

Venue Insight: Vivacom Arena’s compact design and vocal atmosphere often create a formidable home environment for Levski Sofia, and Ludogorets have struggled to break down their defensive block in recent visits.

Conclusion – Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets Predictions

Football Park’s algorithm predicts a tight contest where Levski Sofia are favoured to edge Ludogorets by a narrow margin. With 53.3% win probability and a projected 2-0 correct score, this match sets up well for Levski Sofia to gradually assert control and secure a valuable win in front of their home crowd.

Recommended Bets:

Levski Sofia to Win @ 2.45

Under 2.5 Goals @ ~1.66

Always bet responsibly and never stake more than you can afford to lose. For further reading, explore our Football Park guide to low-scoring match markets and our explainer on team win probability models to sharpen your betting edge.

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