Stoke City vs Derby Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips Predictions

Stoke City vs Derby Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Stoke City and Derby face off at the bet365 Stadium on Saturday, August 9, 2025, in an intriguing Championship encounter kicking off at 15:00 GMT. Both teams start this season with identical win probabilities in Football Park’s algorithm — 40% each — underlining just how evenly matched this contest is expected to be.

The data model anticipates a 1-1 draw, with a 56.7% likelihood of both teams finding the net. While recent meetings have produced narrow scorelines, the stats also highlight the potential for a competitive and balanced game, where fine margins will determine the outcome.

We’ve analysed the Stoke City vs Derby timeline, past meetings, and model forecasts to deliver two high-value betting selections based on Football Park’s percentage ratings.

Match Details: August 9, 2025 | bet365 Stadium | England Championship | 15:00 GMT

Key Betting Tip: Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 – Strong model support with a 56.7% probability of both sides finding the net in a tight encounter.

Stoke City vs Derby Timeline & Previous Meetings

The Stoke City vs Derby matches have often been decided by a single goal, with a number of low-scoring games in recent seasons. Stoke claimed a 2-1 win in November 2024, while Derby edged a 2-1 victory in 2021.

Recent Stoke City vs Derby results:

02 Nov 2024 – Stoke City 2-1 Derby

30 Dec 2021 – Stoke City 1-2 Derby

20 Mar 2021 – Stoke City 1-0 Derby

17 Aug 2019 – Stoke City 2-2 Derby

28 Nov 2018 – Stoke City 2-1 Derby

Four of the last five encounters have seen both teams score, a trend that aligns closely with the model’s projection for this fixture.

Stoke City vs Derby Predictions

Football Park’s match model projects the following for this Championship clash:

Home Win Probability: 40.00%

Draw Probability: 20.00%

Away Win Probability: 40.00%

Correct Score Prediction: 1-1

Both Teams to Score Probability: 56.70%

Over 1.5 Match Goals Probability: 70.00%

Over 2.5 Match Goals Probability: 35.00%

Over 0.5 First Half Goals Probability: 73.00%

The numbers point to an evenly contested match with both sides expected to score, but with a lower likelihood of the game crossing the 2.5 goals line.

Best Stoke City vs Derby Betting Tips

Here are the two top-rated percentage picks from the Football Park model:

1. Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Why? Four of the last five head-to-heads have seen both sides find the net, and the model assigns a 56.7% chance to BTTS landing here.

Model Confidence: High

Risk Level: Medium

2. Over 1.5 Match Goals @ 1.50 Why? With a 70% probability rating, this market offers a safer option for those seeking a lower-risk selection. It’s landed in each of the last five meetings between the sides.

Model Confidence: Strong

Risk Level: Low

Stoke City vs Derby Match Facts

Venue: bet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent

Kick-off: 15:00 GMT, August 9, 2025

Competition: England Championship

Referee: To be confirmed

Broadcast Details:

UK: Sky Sports (selected matches)

International: Check local listings

Final Word: What to Expect

With both teams entering this match on equal footing in the model’s projections, this game could hinge on small moments. The numbers favour both sides getting on the scoresheet, but caution is advised in expecting a goal glut.

Top Selections:

Both Teams to Score @ 2.00

Over 1.5 Match Goals @ 1.50

For more Championship insights and predictions, check our EFL betting tips section.

Football Park Predictions

Football Park provides bettors with a range of different football betting predictions across Europe, the EFL and Non-League football.