Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions and Betting Tips - Odds, H2H and Preview Predictions

Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Preview

Two European giants collide on Saturday, 5 July 2025, when Real Madrid meet Borussia Dortmund in a Club World Cup quarter-final at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey. Los Blancos arrive on the back of a narrow 1-0 win over Juventus, while Dortmund squeezed past Monterrey 2-1 to set up a first competitive meeting between the sides since 2020.

As the match approaches, here's everything you need to know about the clash.

Key Stats:

• Five of Dortmund’s nine goals conceded in 2025 have come from corners or wide free-kicks, while Madrid have scored from four of their last seven dead-ball deliveries.
• Vinícius Júnior (28G + 18A) and Jude Bellingham (33 direct goal involvements) have combined for 79 goal contributions this season - only Bayern’s duo of Kane and Sané boast more in Europe.
• Real average 8.2 high turnovers per match in the Club World Cup; Dortmund are close behind on 7.9.

Where To Watch:

This match will be streamed on DAZN, with a scheduled kick off time of 21:00 on Saturday night.

Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Previews, Form and Players to Watch

Real Madrid roll into New Jersey looking every bit the juggernaut. Xabi Alonso’s men haven’t lost in 16 games, winning 15 of them, and they’ve allowed only two goals in their last 10 hours of football. Switching to a 3-5-2 has unlocked an already frightening attack. Vinícius Júnior is on fire: 28 goals, 18 assists this season, four straight matches on the scoresheet, and a league-best 8+ carries into the final third per 90 minutes. Jude Bellingham keeps defying job descriptions, sitting second in Europe for progressive passes (nine a game) while racking up 33 goal involvements. And, just in time, Kylian Mbappé is over a stomach bug, he’s averaging two-thirds of a non-penalty expected goal every 90 minutes since January. Behind them, Thibaut Courtois looks like he never tore his ACL; he’s saved nearly six goals more than the average keeper would from the shots he’s faced.

Borussia Dortmund arrive with a quieter résumé but plenty of bite. Niko Kovač’s team are unbeaten in eight (six wins, two draws) and have trimmed opponents down to 0.73 expected goals a game. Their press is noticeably sharper - they’re winning the ball high up the pitch almost 20 percent more often than last season - and when they do break, Serhou Guirassy finishes: 35 goals so far at a blistering 0.83 xG per 90. Skipper Julian Brandt has turned into the chief creator, chipping in seven goals, eight assists and spraying 65 progressive passes in his last six outings. At the back, Nico Schlotterbeck tops the Bundesliga for interceptions and aerial wins, while Karim Adeyemi provides raw pace on the counter, flashing a tournament-best 34.9 km/h sprint. In short, Dortmund have the steel to frustrate Madrid and the speed to hurt them - the perfect recipe for an upset, if everything clicks.

Real Madrid Predicted Line-Up (3-5-2): Courtois; Rüdiger, Tchouaméni, Huijsen; Alexander-Arnold, Bellingham, Valverde, Güler, Garcia; Mbappé, Vinícius Jr.

Unavailable / doubts:

• Endrick - injured
• David Alaba - injured
• Ferland Mendy - injured
• Eduardo Camavinga - injured

Dortmund Predicted Line-Up (3-5-2): Kobel; Süle, Anton, Bensebaini; Ryerson, Groß, Nmecha, Sabitzer, Svensson; Guirassy, Adeyemi

Unavailable / doubts:

• Jobe Bellingham - suspended
• Emre Can - injured
• Salih Ozcan - injured
• Nico Schlotterbeck - injured

Head-to-Head Stats

These sides haven’t squared off competitively since the 2020 Champions League group stage, but their last five meetings (2013-2020) delivered goals and late drama: two wins apiece and a draw, 19 goals in total. Madrid twice surrendered two-goal leads, while Dortmund’s famous 2-0 win in 2013 so nearly overturned Lewandowski’s first-leg blitz. Four of those five clashes featured goals after the 80-minute mark, which is proof that neither side tends to settle early.

• 8 Dec 2020, Real Madrid 2-2 Dortmund
• 1 Dec 2020, Dortmund 1-3 Real Madrid
• 6 Dec 2017, Real Madrid 3-2 Dortmund
• 26 Sep 2017, Dortmund 1-1 Real Madrid
• 29 Apr 2013, Real Madrid 2-0 Dortmund

Betting Tips

(Odds are subject to change)

Final Prediction

Real Madrid 2-1 Borussia Dortmund

We can’t see this being a stroll for either side, but we do think Real Madrid will just about squeeze through. Madrid have a real edge at dead-balls and, crucially, a deeper bench: being able to roll out Rodrygo when legs are fading feels decisive. So, after a tight opening hour and a frantic finish, we're leaning Real Madrid 2-1 Borussia Dortmund, with Los Blancos finding that extra gear in the final 20 minutes to book their semi-final spot.