Bahia vs Ceara Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Bahia face Ceara in the Copa do Nordeste on 21 August 2025, with kick-off at 01:30 GMT at Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador. This fixture pits two fierce Northeastern rivals against each other in one of Brazil’s most competitive regional competitions. Bahia enter as favourites according to both the betting markets and Football Park’s advanced prediction model, which factors in over 200 performance indicators.

The algorithm gives Bahia a strong edge at home, with nearly 47% probability of victory, compared to 27% for Ceara, and points towards a controlled contest with limited but decisive scoring opportunities. Historically, this clash has delivered tight matches, with Bahia edging recent meetings in 2025.

Our in-house tipsters highlight Bahia’s home strength and goal markets as the most attractive angles, with value emerging from Bahia’s win odds in particular.

Bahia vs Ceara Predictions

Football Park’s model forecasts:

Home Win Probability: 46.70%

Away Win Probability: 26.70%

Draw Probability: 26.70%

Correct Score Projection: 2-1 Bahia

The expected goals model points to a relatively balanced game, but Bahia’s advantage lies in efficiency in front of goal and defensive organisation at home. With 2.40 expected goals in total and a 53.3% probability of both teams scoring, punters can expect a competitive clash rather than a goal-fest.

Football Park Top 2 Percentage Best Bets:

Over 0.5 Match Goals – 85% probability | Odds: 1.25

Bahia to Win @ 1.73 – A strong probability edge (46.7%) compared to market odds, representing standout betting value.

Bahia vs Ceara Timeline & Head-to-Head

21 Apr 2025: Bahia 1-0 Ceara – A narrow win in Salvador, secured through a disciplined defensive display.

26 Mar 2025: Bahia 3-2 Ceara – A five-goal thriller in a Copa do Nordeste battle.

27 Oct 2021: Bahia 1-1 Ceara – Stalemate in Serie A.

01 May 2021: Bahia 0-1 Ceara – Ceara capitalised on counter-attacks.

05 Dec 2020: Bahia 0-2 Ceara – Bahia struggled to break down Ceara’s block.

Over the past decade, Bahia have edged home fixtures with five wins from the last ten encounters. However, Ceara have proven resilient travellers, making this one of Brazil’s closest regional rivalries.

Bahia vs Ceara Matches – Tactical Outlook

Bahia will likely control possession, using their midfield to dictate tempo and force Ceara into deeper defensive phases. Their attacking efficiency has been crucial at Arena Fonte Nova, particularly in breaking down organised back lines.

Ceara’s strength lies in counter-attacking transitions and physical duels in midfield. However, the Football Park model suggests they will struggle to generate consistent scoring chances, with their probability of netting more than once rated below 30%.

Expect Bahia to play patiently, waiting for key openings, while Ceara focus on keeping the game tight and seeking set-piece opportunities.

Best Betting Tips – Bahia vs Ceara

Football Park’s recommended plays:

Bahia to Win @ 1.73 – With the algorithm projecting nearly a 47% chance of victory, this is one of the strongest selections for this fixture.

Over 0.5 Match Goals @ 1.25 – A banker bet, reflecting the model’s 85% confidence in at least one goal being scored.

Punters looking for greater variance may also consider the 2-1 correct scoreline, which aligns with the model’s most likely projection.

Responsible Betting Advice

Even with strong probabilities, football matches can produce unpredictable outcomes. Bettors should always manage their stakes responsibly, avoid chasing losses, and treat betting as a form of long-term entertainment.

Football Park Predictions Football Park provides bettors with a range of different football betting predictions across Europe, the EFL and Non-League football.