Away Win
MVV 1 - 2 Emmen
Who will win?
1
MVV
x
Draw
2
Emmen
MVV welcome Emmen to the De Geusselt Stadium on Friday, 26 September 2025 (19:00 GMT) in the Dutch Eerste Divisie. Bookmakers favour the visitors at 2.15 odds, and Football Park’s model agrees, giving Emmen a 46.7% win chance compared to MVV’s 26.7%.
Both teams project 1.3 expected goals, suggesting a balanced clash, but Emmen’s consistency and recent dominance in this fixture (three wins in last five) give them the edge. Goals are likely with Over 2.5 Goals priced at 1.57, supported by a 2.6 expected match goals tally.
Date: 26 September 2025
Kick-Off: 19:00 GMT
Competition: Netherlands Eerste Divisie
Venue: De Geusselt, Maastricht – MVV’s home with a 10,000-seat capacity.
Referee: TBC
Netherlands: ESPN NL
International: Bet365 & Bwin (streaming in selected regions)
Home Win Probability: 26.7%
Away Win Probability: 46.7%
Draw Probability: 26.7%
Correct Score Prediction: 1-2
Both Teams to Score Probability: 56.7%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 35%
Half-Time/Full-Time Projection: Draw/Away
Emmen to Win @ 2.15 – Strong historical head-to-head dominance.
Over 2.5 Match Goals @ 1.57 – Model projects 2.6 goals with BTTS above 55%.
Expected Match Goals: 2.60
Over 0.5 Goals Probability: 100%
Over 1.5 Goals Probability: 60%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 35%
Over 3.5 Goals Probability: 30%
First Half Goals Projection: 1.07 (67% chance of at least one first-half goal)
Best Bet 1: Emmen to Win @ 2.15
Best Bet 2: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57
With both sides evenly matched on expected goals, Emmen’s sharper attacking record and away consistency provide betting value. A 1-2 away win is the model’s pick.
Football Park highlights data-driven betting value but outcomes can defy the numbers. Bet sensibly and only risk what you can afford to lose.
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