Derby vs Charlton Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips Predictions

Derby vs Charlton Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Derby County take on Charlton Athletic at Pride Park on 30 September 2025, with kick-off set for 20:00 GMT in the England Championship. Both sides are closely matched according to Football Park’s algorithm, with Derby carrying a slight edge at 40% win probability compared to Charlton’s 33.3%. A draw remains a realistic 26.7% outcome, hinting at a tight contest where fine margins could decide the points.

As with our San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips preview, this analysis is built on Football Park’s advanced model, which draws from over 200 statistical data points. These include head-to-head history, goal expectancy, and key performance trends to deliver accurate, data-backed insights for bettors.

Key Betting Tip: Derby to win at 2.62 odds offers strong value, especially given their 46.7% probability of leading at half-time and their home advantage.

Derby vs Charlton Predictions

Home Win Probability: 40.00%

Draw Probability: 26.70%

Away Win Probability: 33.30%

Correct Score Prediction: Derby 2-1 Charlton

Expected Match Goals: 2.50

Top 2 Percentage Best Bets

Derby Win @ 2.62 – Backed by the model’s 40% probability and a higher first-half win chance (46.7%), Pride Park advantage could prove decisive.

Over 1.5 Match Goals @ 1.53 – With 70% likelihood of at least two goals, this represents a strong value option in what is projected to be a moderately open game.

Derby vs Charlton Timeline & Match Insights

Scoring Projection: Derby (1.3) vs Charlton (1.1) suggests a narrow home edge, supported by the 2-1 correct score model.

First Half Dynamics: 73% chance of at least one first-half goal with Derby tipped to start stronger (46.7% chance of HT lead).

Low Probability for Big Scorelines: Only a 35% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and 20% for over 3.5 goals, making goal totals more likely to stay in the 2–3 range.

BTTS Outlook: Both Teams to Score is priced at 2.10, reflecting just a 46.7% chance according to the model – not the most reliable market here.

Derby vs Charlton Matches – Head-to-Head

27 Feb 2024: Derby 1-2 Charlton

18 Feb 2023: Derby 2-0 Charlton

30 Dec 2019: Derby 2-1 Charlton

15 Aug 2015: Derby 1-1 Charlton

24 Feb 2015: Derby 2-0 Charlton

26 Aug 2014: Derby 1-0 Charlton

29 Mar 2014: Derby 3-0 Charlton

Recent history leans towards Derby at home, with the Rams winning five of the last seven encounters at Pride Park.

Derby vs Charlton Betting Analysis

Derby Win @ 2.62 – Strong home trends and first-half dominance support this.

Charlton Win @ 2.70 – Competitive odds but just a 33.3% probability.

Draw @ 3.25 – Aligns with the model’s 26.7% chance; less attractive value.

Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.53 – Reliable, backed by a 70% projection.

Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.62 – Only a 35% chance, making this a higher-risk option.

Best Derby vs Charlton Betting Tips

Derby Win @ 2.62

Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.53

These two bets carry the highest model confidence and offer strong balance between value and probability.

Match Facts

Date & Kick-off: 30 September 2025 | 20:00 GMT

Venue: Pride Park, Derby

Predicted Scoreline: Derby 2-1 Charlton

Broadcast: Live Championship coverage available in the UK via Sky Sports; check local listings internationally.

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