Derby County vs Norwich City Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips Predictions

Derby County vs Norwich City Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Match Date: Tuesday, 21 October 2025 Kick-off: 19:45 GMT Competition: England Championship

Match Overview

Derby County welcome Norwich City to Pride Park in a fixture where the visitors are favoured by both recent form and predictive data. Football Park’s algorithm gives Norwich a 40% win probability, compared to just 13.3% for Derby, with a high 46.7% chance of a draw — making the Double Chance (Norwich Win or Draw) a statistically strong play.

Norwich have found rhythm on the road, scoring freely but often conceding, while Derby’s defensive frailties continue to be their biggest weakness. With both sides averaging over 1.0 expected goals, this matchup shapes up for an open and entertaining affair.

Football Park Algorithm Predictions

Our model — combining over 200 statistical and form-based variables — projects the following outcomes:

Home Win Probability: 13.30%

Away Win Probability: 40.00%

Draw Probability: 46.70%

Both Teams to Score Probability: 80.00%

Expected Match Goals: 2.60

A 1-2 win for Norwich City is the most probable result according to the data simulation, highlighting their efficiency in front of goal and Derby’s defensive vulnerability.

Key Betting Tips

1. Norwich Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 1.57

With Norwich holding a 40% win probability and nearly a 47% draw likelihood, the Double Chance market provides strong coverage and solid value. The visitors have lost just once in their last six league fixtures and look well-equipped to handle Derby’s pressing game.

Derby, meanwhile, have won only one of their last five at home, and their defensive metrics suggest trouble against Norwich’s fast, technical forwards. Recommended Bet: Norwich Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 1.57

2. Both Teams to Score @ 1.83

Football Park’s algorithm rates BTTS at 80% probability, making this one of the most reliable angles for this matchup.

Derby’s open style at Pride Park often leaves space for opposition counters, while Norwich’s last five away games have all featured goals at both ends. Expect a lively affair with both attacks contributing. Recommended Bet: Both Teams to Score @ 1.83

Head-to-Head Timeline – Derby vs Norwich Matches

28 Sep 2024: Derby 2-3 Norwich

10 Apr 2021: Derby 0-1 Norwich

03 Oct 2018: Derby 1-1 Norwich

10 Feb 2018: Derby 1-1 Norwich

26 Nov 2016: Derby 1-0 Norwich

20 Dec 2014: Derby 2-2 Norwich

Norwich have avoided defeat in five of the last six meetings, scoring at least once in every encounter during that period.

Statistical Breakdown – Derby vs Norwich Predictions

Over 0.5 Match Goals: 100% probability

Over 1.5 Match Goals: 80% probability

Over 2.5 Match Goals: 25% probability

Both Teams to Score: 80% probability

Correct Score Prediction: 1-2 Norwich City

The metrics indicate high attacking involvement from both sides but limited clean-sheet potential — perfect conditions for BTTS and Over 1.5 markets.

Betting Outlook

Football Park’s data model points to a competitive but Norwich-leaning contest. Derby will look to exploit home advantage, but Norwich’s balance in midfield and direct attacking play should see them come away with at least a point.

Predicted outcome: Derby County 1-2 Norwich City Most valuable markets: Norwich Double Chance (Win or Draw) and Both Teams to Score

Responsible Gambling Message

All Football Park predictions are based on statistical modelling and match analytics — not guarantees.

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