Millwall vs Stoke City Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips Predictions

Millwall vs Stoke City Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Match Date: Tuesday, 21 October 2025 Kick-off: 19:45 GMT Competition: England Championship

Match Overview

Two physical, well-organised sides clash at The Den, where Millwall will look to continue their dominant home form against a struggling Stoke City side.

Football Park’s model gives Millwall a 53.3% win probability, compared to just 26.7% for Stoke, reflecting the home team’s consistent record at The Den. Matches between these two tend to be low-scoring, with Millwall’s compact shape and defensive discipline often dictating play.

With an expected match goals total of 1.9, this fixture could again follow the pattern of a narrow home win.

Football Park Algorithm Predictions

Based on form data, xG metrics, and defensive efficiency models:

Home Win Probability: 53.30%

Away Win Probability: 26.70%

Draw Probability: 20.00%

Both Teams to Score Probability: 36.70%

Expected Match Goals: 1.90

The algorithm’s most probable scoreline is 2-0 to Millwall, matching their trend of clean sheets and controlled victories at home.

Key Betting Tips

1. Millwall to Win @ 2.20

Millwall have dominated this fixture historically — winning five of their last six meetings with Stoke at The Den, four of them by a two-goal margin.

Their defence has been rock-solid at home, conceding less than 0.8 goals per game, and they’ve registered three consecutive clean sheets in this matchup. Recommended Bet: Millwall to Win @ 2.20

2. Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.67

The data strongly supports a low-scoring encounter. With an expected goal count of 1.9, this fixture consistently produces tight results — six of the last seven head-to-heads have seen Under 2.5 Goals.

Both sides prioritise structure over risk, and Stoke’s away attacking numbers (0.9 expected goals) suggest they may struggle to break down Millwall’s back line. Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.67

Head-to-Head Timeline – Millwall vs Stoke Matches

15 Mar 2025: Millwall 1-0 Stoke City

26 Aug 2023: Millwall 1-0 Stoke City

30 Jul 2022: Millwall 2-0 Stoke City

23 Oct 2021: Millwall 2-1 Stoke City

12 Sep 2020: Millwall 0-0 Stoke City

26 Oct 2019: Millwall 2-0 Stoke City

27 Apr 2019: Millwall 0-0 Stoke City

Millwall have not lost to Stoke in their last seven meetings, keeping five clean sheets in that stretch.

Statistical Breakdown – Millwall vs Stoke Predictions

Over 0.5 Match Goals: 90% probability

Over 1.5 Match Goals: 65% probability

Over 2.5 Match Goals: 45% probability

Both Teams to Score: 36.7% probability

Correct Score Prediction: 2-0 Millwall

With Millwall’s strong home form and Stoke’s away struggles, the metrics all point toward another disciplined, low-margin home victory.

Betting Outlook

This fixture screams Millwall control — expect them to dominate physically, keep things tight at the back, and find goals through set pieces or second-phase attacks. Stoke will likely struggle to create high-quality chances.

Predicted outcome: Millwall 2-0 Stoke City Most valuable markets: Millwall Win and Under 2.5 Goals

Responsible Gambling Message

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