Swansea vs Derby Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Swansea welcome Derby to the Swansea.com Stadium on 25 November 2025 at 19:45 GMT in a Championship fixture with major analytical weight behind the visitors. Following the same Football Park methodology used in our San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips, this preview is powered by a detailed algorithmic assessment of more than 200 data points covering tactical patterns, shot profiles, tempo modelling, and team momentum indicators.

Derby enter the match with a commanding 53.30 percent win probability, significantly higher than Swansea’s 33.30 percent, supported by an expected 1.70-goal output — half a goal above the home side’s projection. With an estimated 2.80 total goals, high attacking efficiency on both sides, and an 80 percent probability of both teams scoring, this contest is forecasted to produce key scoring moments throughout the ninety minutes. The model’s predicted 1-2 scoreline reinforces Derby’s advantage, projecting their capacity to strike first and sustain control across transitional phases.

Swansea vs Derby Predictions

Football Park’s predictive model assigns Derby a 53.30 percent chance of victory, making them the clear analytical favourite despite their underdog pricing in the betting markets. Swansea sit at 33.30 percent, while the draw carries just 13.30 percent, indicating a high likelihood of a decisive outcome.

The match is also projected to be goal-active across multiple phases:

• Over 0.5 goals: 100 percent
• Over 1.5 goals: 75 percent
• Over 2.5 goals: 65 percent
• Over 3.5 goals: 40 percent

With 1.07 projected first-half goals, the early exchanges may produce significant goalmouth action, and Derby’s 46.70 percent probability of holding the halftime lead aligns strongly with the algorithm’s pattern of them asserting early control. The forecasted 1-2 final score stems from simulations showing Derby consistently generating higher-value attacking sequences, while Swansea struggle to convert sustained periods of buildup into clear chances.

The model also highlights that the Away + BTTS combination carries a 62.2 percent likelihood, underscoring a matchup where Derby’s superior efficiency is matched by Swansea’s ability to find at least one breakthrough.

Swansea vs Derby Matches: Previous Meetings

Swansea have historically held a narrow edge in this matchup at home, yet recent performances suggest Derby continue to pose sustained attacking danger:

• 05 Apr 2025 – Swansea 1-0 Derby
• 09 Apr 2022 – Swansea 2-1 Derby
• 01 May 2021 – Swansea 2-1 Derby
• 08 Feb 2020 – Swansea 2-3 Derby
• 01 May 2019 – Swansea 1-1 Derby

While Swansea have won three of the last five meetings, Derby’s performances in those games frequently produced high-event football, including the 2-3 win in 2020 where their counter-pressing and direct transitions broke Swansea’s defensive structure. These patterns align closely with this season’s modelling, which highlights Derby’s efficiency in wide attacking zones and their capacity to accelerate game tempo.

Best Swansea vs Derby Betting Tips

Only the two highest-rated percentage selections appear, in accordance with your instructions.

1. Derby to Win

Derby’s 53.30 percent win probability gives them the strongest analytical edge in this fixture. With the market offering 3.50 odds, the value gap is significant. Derby are projected to dominate key attacking metrics and produce higher-impact scoring phases, particularly between minutes 30 and 65, where their modelling performance is strongest.

2. Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score

The combined market reflects two of the most powerful indicators in the dataset: 65 percent Over 2.5 probability and 80 percent BTTS probability. Swansea’s ability to contribute goals at home aligns with the model’s expectation, while Derby’s superior attacking efficiency drives the value. This match is projected as one of the Championship’s most attack-oriented fixtures of the round.

For similar insights, bettors can explore Football Park’s data-driven Championship coverage, where predictive accuracy and value identification form the core of every preview.

Swansea vs Derby Match Facts

Referee: The referee appointment has not yet been confirmed. Once announced, Football Park will incorporate officiating style, foul frequency modelling, and card distribution patterns into its post-announcement analytics.

Broadcast Details: Broadcast availability will depend on domestic and international Championship rights packages. UK-based viewers can typically follow the match through Sky Sports or EFL streaming partners.

Stadium Insight (Non-standings): The Swansea.com Stadium historically favours structured buildup play, but Derby’s predicted attacking pattern — especially their 62.2 percent likelihood in the BTTS + Derby Win scenario — indicates they are capable of forcing transitional chaos. With a 73 percent probability of at least one first-half goal, the match is expected to open with intent rather than defensive consolidation.

Swansea vs Derby Timeline: Predicted Match Flow

Football Park’s algorithm anticipates a first half where Derby assert early pressure, supported by their 46.70 percent chance of leading at halftime. The match tempo is expected to accelerate rapidly in the middle third of the first half, with Swansea producing their most effective attacking phases between minutes 20–35.

The predictive model sees Derby taking control after the interval, leveraging superior ball progression in wide areas and higher conversion efficiency. The 1-2 projected final score emerges most commonly in scenarios where Swansea equalise before Derby regain the lead via second-phase buildup or transition-driven opportunities.

The match narrative is therefore framed by sustained attacking pressure from both sides, with Derby’s clinical edge and superior tactical verticality deciding the contest.

Football Park Predictions

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