Exeter City vs Plymouth Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Match Date: Thursday, 23 October 2025 Kick-off: 20:00 GMT Competition: England League One

Match Overview

A fiery West Country derby is on the cards as Exeter City host Plymouth Argyle at St James Park. Football Park’s model gives Plymouth a 53.3% chance of victory, marking them as narrow favourites in what promises to be a spirited encounter.

Exeter’s home form has been patchy, while Plymouth have found momentum through consistent attacking play and better efficiency in front of goal. With 2.9 expected goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring, the data suggests an open but competitive fixture where the visitors may just edge it.

Football Park Algorithm Predictions

Football Park’s predictive model draws from over 200 key data points — including xG metrics, shot conversion, and defensive transitions — to generate the most likely outcomes:

Home Win Probability: 33.30%

Away Win Probability: 53.30%

Draw Probability: 13.30%

Both Teams to Score Probability: 50.00%

Expected Match Goals: 2.90

Simulations highlight a 1-2 away victory for Plymouth as the most probable outcome, with the Argyle attack expected to capitalise on defensive lapses from Exeter.

Key Betting Tips

Plymouth to Win @ 2.50

With over half of the model’s simulations backing Plymouth to secure three points, the 2.50 odds represent excellent value. Argyle’s recent away record against mid-table sides has been strong, and their xG advantage of +0.1 per match gives them the statistical edge.

Exeter have conceded in nine of their last ten matches, while Plymouth’s counter-attacking style is well-suited to exploiting space at St James Park. Recommended Bet: Plymouth to Win @ 2.50

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80

The Football Park model projects 2.9 total expected goals, suggesting the potential for a goal-filled derby. Both sides have been involved in high-scoring matches this season — Exeter averaging 3.1 goals per game and Plymouth 2.8 goals per game overall.

Given the attacking profiles and defensive inconsistencies, the over market holds solid value. Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80

Head-to-Head Timeline – Exeter City vs Plymouth Matches

15 Apr 2023: Exeter City 0-1 Plymouth

26 Oct 2019: Exeter City 4-0 Plymouth

17 Sep 2016: Exeter City 0-2 Plymouth

02 Apr 2016: Exeter City 2-1 Plymouth

21 Feb 2015: Exeter City 1-3 Plymouth

05 Oct 2013: Exeter City 3-1 Plymouth

15 Dec 2012: Exeter City 1-1 Plymouth

This derby has historically produced goals — six of the last eight meetings have seen both teams score, with Plymouth winning three of the last four encounters.

Statistical Breakdown – Exeter City vs Plymouth Predictions

Over 0.5 Match Goals: 100% probability

Over 1.5 Match Goals: 75% probability

Over 2.5 Match Goals: 45% probability

Over 3.5 Match Goals: 30% probability

Both Teams to Score: 50% probability

Correct Score Prediction: 1-2 Plymouth

The data anticipates an attacking, high-intensity battle — particularly in the first half, where there’s an 80% chance of at least one goal.

Betting Outlook

Expect a fast-paced, high-energy League One clash defined by attacking transitions and open play. Plymouth’s superior firepower gives them the upper hand, but Exeter’s home crowd and rivalry motivation could make this closer than the odds suggest.

Predicted outcome: Exeter City 1-2 Plymouth Most valuable markets: Plymouth to Win and Over 2.5 Goals

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