Aston Villa vs Burnley Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips Predictions

Aston Villa vs Burnley Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Aston Villa welcome Burnley to Villa Park on Sunday, October 5, 2025 (14:00 GMT) in a Premier League clash where the hosts are strongly favoured by the data. Villa come into this fixture backed by Football Park’s advanced algorithm, which projects them as clear winners, with a dominant 53.3% chance of victory compared to just 20% for Burnley.

Our model, the same data-driven system used in previews such as San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips, highlights Aston Villa’s superior attacking output and home advantage as key factors. With an expected 2-1 correct scoreline and more than a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals, this matchup looks set to deliver goals as well as a likely Villa win.

Punters should note that Burnley’s recent visits to Villa Park have produced high-scoring draws, but the numbers here tilt heavily in favour of the hosts.

Aston Villa vs Burnley Predictions

Aston Villa Win Probability: 53.3%

Burnley Win Probability: 20.0%

Draw Probability: 26.7%

Correct Score Prediction: 2-1

Both Teams to Score Probability: 43.3%

The algorithm projects Villa to take control, with Burnley struggling to create enough clear chances.

Best Aston Villa vs Burnley Betting Tips

Football Park’s top two percentage-backed bets are:

Aston Villa to Win @ 1.55 – With the model giving Villa a 53.3% chance of victory, this is the strongest value selection.

Over 2.5 Match Goals @ 1.91 – A 55% probability suggests solid potential for a game featuring goals, consistent with recent head-to-head history.

Both recommendations combine home advantage with the likelihood of goals, offering a balanced betting approach.

Aston Villa vs Burnley Matches (Head-to-Head Timeline)

30 Dec 2023 // Aston Villa 3-2 Burnley

19 May 2022 // Aston Villa 1-1 Burnley

17 Dec 2020 // Aston Villa 0-0 Burnley

28 Sep 2019 // Aston Villa 2-2 Burnley

24 May 2015 // Aston Villa 0-1 Burnley

This fixture has historically been competitive, though Villa have edged the most recent high-scoring encounter.

Aston Villa vs Burnley Lineups

Confirmed Aston Villa vs Burnley lineups will be released approximately one hour before kick-off. Football Park will provide tactical updates, substitutions, and player insights as soon as the teams are announced.

Aston Villa vs Burnley Predictions: Key Match Facts

Most Likely Result: Aston Villa win

Most Probable Scoreline: 2-1

Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 55%

Half-Time/Full-Time Projection: Villa/Villa

Strongest Value Bet: Aston Villa to Win @ 1.55

Broadcast & Match Information

Competition: Premier League

Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025

Kick-Off: 14:00 GMT

Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham

Broadcast: Sky Sports (UK), worldwide coverage via Premier League rights holders

Responsible Betting

Aston Villa are justifiably favourites, but Premier League fixtures often deliver surprises. Our algorithm-driven predictions provide insight, not certainty. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you can afford to lose.

Football Park Predictions

Football Park provides bettors with a range of different football betting predictions across Europe, the EFL and Non-League football. Our algorithm blends over 200 data points with expert betting insights to deliver smarter, sharper predictions for every fixture.