Emirates FA Cup


Home Win
Grimsby 3 - 1 Ebbsfleet United
Who will win?
1

Grimsby
x
Draw
2

Ebbsfleet United
Grimsby take on Ebbsfleet United in the FA Cup on November 1, 2025 (15:00 GMT), with the tie set to be played at Blundell Park. This clash brings together two attack-minded sides looking to make their mark in the cup, and Football Park’s algorithmic model suggests a high-scoring contest could unfold. Using over 200 performance metrics, our model gives Grimsby a strong home edge and highlights their attacking consistency at Blundell Park. With both sides capable of finding the net, this fixture promises plenty of goalmouth action and should appeal to bettors looking for value in the goals markets.
Football Park’s advanced prediction model gives Grimsby a 73.3% chance of victory, compared to 20.0% for Ebbsfleet United and just 6.7% for the draw. The expected match goals stand at 4.00, one of the highest projections of the FA Cup weekend, suggesting a fixture filled with attacking intent. The algorithm anticipates a 3-2 correct score, with Over 2.5 Goals (75%) and Both Teams to Score (63.3%) both ranking strongly. Grimsby’s offensive output at home gives them a decisive advantage, though Ebbsfleet’s high expected goals per away match points toward a competitive encounter.
Football Park’s Best Bet: Grimsby to Win @ 1.33 Our in-house model identifies Grimsby’s home victory as the most likely outcome, supported by their 73% win probability. Their attacking rhythm and superior first-half metrics (66.7% HT win chance) back this up, making the short price a justifiable inclusion in accumulators.
Alternative Bet: Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score @ 2.20 With a projected total of 4.00 goals and both teams scoring in over 60% of simulations, this selection represents excellent value. The history between these sides supports the data — Grimsby’s 3-1 and 4-3 wins in previous meetings underline the potential for another open, end-to-end encounter.
Competition: England FA Cup
Date: Saturday, 1 November 2025
Kick-off: 15:00 GMT
Venue: Blundell Park, Grimsby
26 Feb 2013 – Grimsby 3-1 Ebbsfleet United
17 Dec 2011 – Grimsby 4-3 Ebbsfleet United
Grimsby’s attacking dominance at home and Ebbsfleet’s leaky defence make for a volatile mix. Football Park’s algorithm gives a 95% chance of Over 0.5 Match Goals and a 75% likelihood of Over 2.5, indicating strong potential for a lively FA Cup tie.
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