Sutton Utd vs Farnham Town Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips Predictions

Sutton Utd vs Farnham Town Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Match Details: October 14, 2025 | VBS Community Stadium | England FA Cup | Kick-off: 19:45 GMT

The FA Cup is the ultimate leveller in English football, and Sutton United vs Farnham Town has all the ingredients of a classic upset. According to Football Park’s advanced data model, Farnham Town — the visitors from the lower divisions — hold an 80% win probability, despite the market heavily favouring Sutton United at 1.36 odds. The model’s projections are built on over 200 performance metrics, including attacking conversion rates, defensive structure, and recent form across all competitions.

The key betting insight from Football Park highlights Farnham Town to Win @ 6.50 as the standout value selection, supported by the algorithm’s overwhelming confidence in the away side’s efficiency and momentum. The model also identifies Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 as the secondary high-probability bet, predicting an open, attacking tie with over 86% chance of hitting three or more goals.

Sutton Utd vs Farnham Town Predictions

Football Park’s predictive engine projects a data-backed 1-3 away victory, underlining Farnham Town’s clinical finishing and Sutton’s defensive instability. This is one of the most lopsided algorithm results in recent FA Cup data, with Sutton’s 0% win probability reflecting both current form struggles and defensive inefficiencies.

Football Park’s Top Two Algorithm Selections

Farnham Town to Win – 80% Confidence | Odds: 6.50 The standout bet according to Football Park’s model, Farnham Town’s 80% win projection defies the bookmaker prices. Despite being the underdogs on paper, they have shown exceptional form in knockout competitions, averaging 2.7 expected goals per match and maintaining high pressing intensity that punishes defensive lapses.

Sutton United, meanwhile, have recorded one of the lowest defensive stability indexes among League Two and National League-level sides in domestic cups this season. Their modelled expected goals conceded (2.7) aligns with Football Park’s predicted correct score of 1-3.

Supporting data:

Half-Time/Full-Time Prediction: Draw/Away

Over 0.5 First Half Goals: 70%

Over 1.5 First Half Goals: 60%

Both Teams to Score & Win (Away + BTTS): 84%

The model anticipates Farnham Town taking control after a measured first half, with late goals cementing their dominance. This selection represents one of the highest-confidence away win forecasts in this FA Cup round.

Over 2.5 Match Goals – 86.7% Confidence | Odds: 1.44 The Football Park algorithm projects a goal-heavy contest, forecasting 4.1 total match goals and a 92% chance of both teams scoring. Sutton United’s open structure under pressure creates high Expected Goals Against (xGA) scenarios, while Farnham Town have been prolific in transition phases, averaging nearly three goals per game across their last six outings.

Historical data also supports this bet: Farnham’s last five away matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, while Sutton’s defensive record — conceding in nine consecutive fixtures — suggests vulnerability once again.

Combining Over 2.5 Goals with Both Teams to Score presents a compelling high-yield alternative, with Football Park’s model rating the BTTS element at 92% likelihood.

Sutton Utd vs Farnham Town Match Preview

This FA Cup tie offers a fascinating contrast in style and expectation. Sutton United, operating from higher up the English football pyramid, enter the game as strong favourites on paper but appear tactically stretched and inconsistent. Their home advantage has historically been a strength in league play, but the FA Cup introduces a different pressure dynamic — one that often punishes complacency.

Farnham Town, on the other hand, arrive with confidence and momentum. Their 80% win probability is built on recent data showing their ability to outperform possession-based sides in knockout matches. Football Park’s model identifies them as one of the most efficient counter-attacking teams in the competition, converting a high percentage of chances from low possession spells.

This matchup also pits two contrasting tactical setups against each other: Sutton’s compact defensive block versus Farnham’s direct forward transitions. The algorithm forecasts an early equilibrium (60% probability of a half-time draw), followed by Farnham’s superior second-half execution.

Predicted Key Metrics:

Both Teams to Score Probability: 92%

Expected Match Goals: 4.10

Most Likely Correct Score: 1-3

Over 0.5 First Half Goals Probability: 70%

Half-Time/Full-Time Projection: Draw/Away

Farnham’s ability to maintain pressure late into matches gives them a decisive edge in the model. In FA Cup terms, this is the archetype of a “cupset” — a data-backed underdog triumph rooted in efficiency and composure.

Sutton Utd vs Farnham Town Timeline

While this is the first competitive meeting between the two sides, the underlying data patterns suggest a match with high attacking energy and minimal control phases. In comparable fixtures across the FA Cup since 2020, lower-tier away sides with above 60% model win probability have won 78% of matches outright and lost fewer than 10%.

Key statistical highlights leading into this tie:

Sutton have conceded 2+ goals in seven of their last nine matches.

Farnham have scored in both halves in 70% of their games this season.

Football Park’s Both Teams to Score In Both Halves probability sits at a high 50%, reflecting the attacking tempo expected from both sides.

The data implies that if Farnham score first — which the algorithm estimates at 62% likelihood — Sutton’s defensive structure may not recover.

Key Betting Insights

Home Win Probability: 0%

Draw Probability: 20%

Away Win Probability: 80%

Both Teams to Score: 92%

Expected Match Goals: 4.10

Most Likely Correct Score: 1-3

Half-Time/Full-Time Projection: Draw/Away

Over 1.5 First Half Goals Probability: 60%

Football Park’s Value Perspective

Farnham Town to Win @ 6.50 – Exceptional value, supported by overwhelming algorithmic confidence (80%) and a proven scoring record in knockout fixtures.

Over 2.5 Match Goals @ 1.44 – Backed by strong model probability (86.7%) and both teams’ attacking profiles, this market aligns with the expected high-goal dynamic.

For bettors, this represents a dual high-value combination — a long-priced underdog victory paired with an open, goal-rich game.

Match Conditions

Weather forecasts predict mild, dry conditions at the VBS Community Stadium — ideal for fast-paced play. The pitch quality and evening kickoff also support Football Park’s expectation of a high-tempo contest with multiple scoring opportunities.

Responsible Betting Advice

Football Park advocates for data-led and responsible wagering. While algorithmic probabilities highlight value opportunities, no bet is risk-free. Always stake sensibly, use our data as an analytical guide, and never exceed personal betting limits.

Football Park Predictions

Football Park provides bettors with a range of different football betting predictions across Europe, the EFL and Non-League football. Our in-house analysts and predictive algorithms combine cutting-edge statistical modelling with practical betting expertise to uncover genuine market value.

Football Park’s Best Bets for This Match:

Farnham Town to Win @ 6.50

Over 2.5 Match Goals @ 1.44