Home Win
Lyon 3 - 0 Toulouse
Who will win?
1
Lyon
x
Draw
2
Toulouse
Lyon host Toulouse at the Groupama Stadium on Sunday, 5 October 2025 (14:00 GMT) in Ligue 1. Les Gones enter as huge favourites with an 80% win probability, driven by a projected 3-0 correct score and 2.3 expected goals. Toulouse, meanwhile, are given just a 6.7% chance of victory, suggesting a tough away day.
Date: 5 October 2025
Kick-Off: 14:00 GMT
Competition: France Ligue 1
Venue: Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu – capacity 59,000.
Referee: TBC
France: Amazon Prime Video Ligue 1
UK: TNT Sports / discovery+
International: beIN Sports, ESPN+, DAZN
Home Win Probability: 80.0%
Away Win Probability: 6.7%
Draw Probability: 13.3%
Correct Score Prediction: 3-0
Both Teams to Score Probability: 33.3%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 50.0%
Half-Time/Full-Time Projection: Home/Home
Lyon Win @ 1.91 – Backed strongly by data and historical dominance over Toulouse.
Lyon Clean Sheet (BTTS – No) @ 2.10 – With only 0.3 expected goals for Toulouse, a Lyon win to nil looks highly probable.
Expected Match Goals: 2.70
Over 0.5 Goals Probability: 95%
Over 1.5 Goals Probability: 55%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 50%
Over 3.5 Goals Probability: 15%
First Half Goals Projection: 1.20 (60% chance of at least one first-half goal)
Best Bet 1: Lyon Win @ 1.91
Best Bet 2: Lyon Clean Sheet (BTTS – No) @ 2.10
Lyon’s dominance in this fixture is striking: they’ve scored 3+ goals in 6 of the last 10 meetings, with four clean sheets in that span. Toulouse rarely trouble Lyon away from home, making a home win with a clean sheet the standout betting angle.
At Football Park, our predictions use advanced analytics to highlight betting value. However, Ligue 1 can still spring surprises. Always gamble responsibly and never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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