France Ligue 2


BTTS Yes
Montpellier 2 - 1 Guingamp
Who will win?
1

Montpellier
x
Draw
2

Guingamp
Montpellier welcome Guingamp on Friday 30 January 2026 with kick-off scheduled for 19:00 GMT, as the two sides meet at the Stade de la Mosson in France’s Ligue 2. This fixture brings together two evenly matched teams, and Football Park’s data-driven model suggests another competitive encounter is likely. Using the same analytical framework applied to fixtures such as San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield, our algorithm highlights goals at both ends as the most reliable angle. Both Teams to Score at odds of 1.83 stands out as the key betting tip, backed by a solid 56.7% probability and reinforced by a projected 2-1 correct score. With Montpellier holding a narrow edge at home but Guingamp carrying a genuine attacking threat, this match shapes up as finely balanced rather than one-sided.
Recent history between Montpellier and Guingamp consistently points towards close contests. Montpellier have edged several home meetings by narrow margins, including 2-1 victories in 2015 and 2014, while four of the last six encounters ended with both teams scoring. Draws have also been a recurring theme, underlining how difficult it has been to separate these sides over the years.
Football Park’s model gives Montpellier a slight advantage with a 46.7% chance of a home win, but Guingamp are not far behind at 40%. The draw is rated less likely, though the predicted match flow suggests periods of control for both teams. The expected goals profile points towards a competitive game with chances at both ends rather than a low-tempo stalemate, aligning with the 2-1 correct score forecast.
Football Park’s Best Bet: Both Teams to Score @ 1.83
With a 56.7% probability, this is the strongest-rated market. Both sides show enough attacking intent to find the net, while neither defence profiles as dominant.
Second Rated Selection: Montpellier to Win @ 2.15
The home side’s narrow edge and historical success in this fixture make a Montpellier win a viable secondary option, though it comes with greater risk than the goals market.
The data indicates a high likelihood of goals overall, with over 1.5 match goals rated at 80%. First-half scoring is also expected, as over 0.5 first-half goals carries a 67% probability, suggesting the game could open up early.
The Stade de la Mosson has traditionally suited Montpellier in tight Ligue 2 fixtures, offering a familiar environment where they often manage games effectively when margins are fine.
This fixture fits the profile of a classic Ligue 2 battle: closely fought, tactically disciplined, and decided by small moments. Montpellier’s home edge is counterbalanced by Guingamp’s ability to stay competitive away, making goals at both ends the most consistent angle.
Predicted lineups are not included in line with editorial guidelines.
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