Liga 1


Home Win
Dewa United 1 - 1 PSM Makassar
Who will win?
1

Dewa United
x
Draw
2

PSM Makassar
Dewa United host PSM Makassar in what promises to be a high-tempo Indonesian Liga 1 clash this Sunday morning. Football Park’s predictive model anticipates a tight contest with goals on both ends, supported by an exceptionally high 93.3% probability for Both Teams to Score. The home side enter as algorithmic favourites, backed by a 1.73 odds price and a 31% win likelihood, while the visitors’ tactical resilience points towards another competitive encounter between two evenly matched teams.
This fixture has a recent history of dramatic scorelines, with each of the last three meetings producing goals from both sides. Football Park’s advanced model forecasts an open match with nearly 2.9 expected total goals, positioning Dewa United to Win @ 1.73 as the standout value selection ahead of kick-off.
Football Park’s proprietary algorithm, which evaluates over 200 data points per match, suggests a statistically balanced but goal-heavy fixture in Tangerang. Dewa United’s recent home form and attacking efficiency contribute to their favourite status, although the data hints at potential resistance from a tactically compact PSM Makassar side.
Top Algorithm-Backed Selections
Dewa United to Win @ 1.73 – 31% model confidence
Both Teams to Score (Yes) – 93.3% model confidence
Despite a modest win probability, the underlying performance data clearly favours the hosts. Dewa United are projected to score 1.6 goals, compared to 1.4 expected for PSM Makassar, highlighting a narrow offensive advantage. The model also identifies a strong likelihood of mutual scoring activity, with over 90% probability for at least one goal per team.
The algorithm forecasts a high-tempo opening, with 67% probability of at least one first-half goal, while a balanced mid-game battle points to a potential Draw/Draw half-time/full-time scenario – consistent with previous head-to-head patterns.
Predicted Correct Score: 1-1
The Dewa United vs PSM Makassar timeline paints a clear picture of competitive balance. These two sides have met regularly in recent seasons, with all encounters featuring goals from both teams.
In all three previous meetings, Both Teams to Score has landed, aligning perfectly with Football Park’s algorithmic projection of another goal-laden affair. The home side’s narrow victory in early 2025 demonstrated their ability to break down Makassar’s defensive unit late in matches, with second-half goals proving decisive.
The expected 2.9 total match goals for this meeting suggest that bettors should once again anticipate end-to-end football, particularly during the final 30 minutes, where Dewa United average 1.1 goals per home fixture.
While confirmed Dewa United vs PSM Makassar lineups will be available closer to matchday, Football Park’s algorithm projects a strategic matchup built around control versus counter.
Tactical Breakdown
Dewa United: Likely to operate in a structured 4-3-3 formation, pressing high and relying on fluid attacking transitions. With 1.6 expected goals at home, their offensive model focuses on rapid ball recovery and vertical progression.
PSM Makassar: Expected to employ a 4-2-3-1 or 5-4-1 system to absorb pressure, prioritising compact defensive spacing and counter opportunities via their pace in wide areas.
Football Park’s simulation data forecasts 55% overall possession for Dewa United, supported by higher shot creation and expected goal output. PSM’s best moments are likely to arrive through transitional play, which explains the model’s strong bias toward Both Teams to Score.
Key Statistical Indicators
Football Park Best Bet 1: Dewa United to Win @ 1.73
Backed by Football Park’s data-driven model, Dewa United to Win offers reliable betting value at 1.73. Although the algorithm registers a modest 31% direct win probability, the underlying metrics – such as home goal expectancy, attacking consistency, and first-half control – favour the Tangerang-based side.
Historically, Dewa United have avoided defeat in all of their last three meetings against PSM Makassar, with their home advantage playing a crucial role. Their ability to sustain attacking pressure, particularly beyond the 70th minute, remains a defining trend in their match data.
Football Park Best Bet 2: Both Teams to Score (Yes) – Model Confidence 93.3%
With a 93.3% probability, this is Football Park’s highest-rated market for the fixture. Each of the past three Dewa United vs PSM Makassar matches has seen goals at both ends, and the current data reinforces that pattern.
Both teams are projected to generate more than one goal opportunity per 90 minutes, making the BTTS market an essential inclusion for bettors seeking strong statistical alignment. This selection also aligns with the model’s expected 2.9 total match goals, indicating clear offensive intent from both sides.
This fixture has all the indicators of a balanced but entertaining battle. Football Park’s data points to Dewa United’s home strength, reflected in their high possession metrics and scoring reliability, while PSM Makassar’s structured approach could see them capitalise on transitional chances.
Top Value Bets:
Bettors can expect an open encounter featuring chances for both sides, particularly in the second half where Dewa United’s attacking metrics peak.
Football Park encourages all bettors to wager responsibly. Our predictions are data-based and statistically modelled, but football outcomes remain uncertain. Set strict betting limits, avoid chasing losses, and treat wagering as entertainment, not guaranteed profit.
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