Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema FC Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema FC Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Persebaya Surabaya host Arema FC in Indonesia’s Liga 1 on 22 November 2025, with kick-off scheduled for 08:30 GMT, as one of the standout fixtures of the league calendar. Played at the Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium, this East Java derby adds an extra layer of intensity, with both sides historically producing high-energy, attack-minded contests. Football Park’s predictive model, the same data-first methodology showcased in our San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips analysis, identifies Persebaya as the favourites, driven by a 53.30% home win probability and an offensive projection pointing to a multi-goal performance.

This match is further defined by the algorithm’s expectation of goals, backed by a 70.00% Both Teams to Score rating and 2.90 Expected Match Goals, indicating a fast-paced, open contest with sustained attacking phases. Persebaya’s head-to-head dominance is difficult to ignore, having won each of the last six home meetings against Arema.

Key Betting Insight: Persebaya Surabaya to Win at 2.00 is highlighted by Football Park’s model as a strong value play in this high-stakes derby.

Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema FC Predictions

Football Park’s algorithm projects a clear home advantage:

• Home Win: 53.30%
• Draw: 20.00%
• Away Win: 26.70%

These figures reflect Persebaya’s tactical superiority, higher-rated offensive sequences, and home consistency in one of Indonesia’s most heated fixtures.

• Correct Score Prediction: Persebaya Surabaya 2-1 Arema FC

The 2-1 scoreline aligns with their past meetings, where Persebaya’s attacking strength has regularly broken down Arema’s defensive structure while still allowing counter-attacking moments that give the visitors scoring opportunities.

• Expected Match Goals: 2.90

This projection places the match firmly in the upper third of expected scoring outputs for the Liga 1 weekend, suggesting a fixture with strong goal potential and dynamic momentum shifts.

Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema FC Lineups Insight

Official Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema FC lineups will be published ahead of kick-off, but Football Park’s tactical modelling identifies several consistent traits that are likely to influence the match pattern.

Persebaya Surabaya Tactical Themes:

• High-intensity pressing phases in the opening 30 minutes
• Strong midfield ball progression, facilitating chance creation
• Emphasis on wide overloads and early crosses into central danger zones
• Structured defensive transitions that help maintain territorial dominance

These factors support the model’s 40.00% Half-Time Home Win probability, signalling Persebaya’s tendency to start matches aggressively at home.

Arema FC Tactical Themes

• Reactive, counter-attacking approach
• Dependence on transitional attacks rather than sustained possession
• A vulnerability in wide channels that Persebaya have historically exploited
• Ability to create scoring moments when bypassing midfield pressure

Arema’s 20.00% Half-Time Win probability illustrates their challenge: sustaining early pressure against an opponent who consistently overwhelms visiting sides through tempo and field control.

With both teams trending toward open play, the likelihood of early scoring is further reinforced by:

• Over 0.5 First Half Goals: 67.00%
• Over 1.5 First Half Goals: 47.00%

These values underline the algorithm’s confidence in an energetic and multi-phase first half.

Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema FC Timeline & Goal Expectations

Football Park’s predictive timeline signals a compelling scoring trajectory, driven by elevated attacking metrics across both teams.

Match Goal Probabilities

• Over 0.5 Goals: 95.00%
• Over 1.5 Goals: 65.00%
• Over 2.5 Goals: 60.00%
• Over 3.5 Goals: 40.00%

These probabilities highlight strong value around multi-goal betting markets, particularly the Over 2.5 line, which aligns with both the model’s projections and historic data between these teams.

First Half Goal Expectations

• Over 0.5 First Half Goals: 67.00%
• Over 1.5 First Half Goals: 47.00%

The algorithm anticipates early action, particularly with Persebaya’s tactical preference for high-paced starts.

Half-Time Result Predictions

• Home: 40.00%
• Draw: 40.00%
• Away: 20.00%

The split between Home and Draw implies a closely contested opening period, though Persebaya retain the edge in possession and chance creation.

Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema FC Matches (Head-to-Head Timeline)

The head-to-head timeline paints a clear picture of Persebaya’s dominance in this derby, particularly at home:

• 07 Dec 2024 – Persebaya Surabaya 3-2 Arema FC
• 23 Sep 2023 – Persebaya Surabaya 3-1 Arema FC
• 11 Apr 2023 – Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Arema FC
• 23 Feb 2022 – Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Arema FC
• 12 Dec 2019 – Persebaya Surabaya 4-1 Arema FC
• 06 May 2018 – Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Arema FC
• 06 May 2018 – Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Arema FC

Persebaya have won each of the last seven home meetings, often doing so convincingly. Their attacking patterns—marked by aggressive wing play and rapid link-up movements—have consistently disrupted Arema’s defensive line, resulting in high shot volumes and scoring opportunities.

Arema’s last away win in this fixture is absent from the recent era, highlighting the steep challenge they face entering this matchup.

This timeline strongly reinforces the algorithm’s 2-1 correct score prediction and the betting model’s preference for Persebaya.

Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema FC Predictions Insight

Football Park’s analytical framework integrates key match variables—including form trajectory, tactical matchups, head-to-head patterns, and expected scoring pathways—to produce a comprehensive prediction model.

Key findings include:

• Persebaya hold notable structural advantages, particularly in midfield progression and wide-area dominance.
• Arema retain scoring upside through transitional play, reflected in a 70.00% BTTS rating.
• The match is projected to feature multiple high-quality attacking sequences, aligning with the 2.90 Expected Match Goals indicator.
• Historical data provides strong reinforcement, with Persebaya consistently outperforming Arema in this fixture for over half a decade.

These dynamics support the algorithm’s confidence in a home win and a multi-goal contest.

Best Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema FC Betting Tips

Football Park’s model identifies the following as the two highest-value, highest-confidence betting selections:

1. Persebaya Surabaya Win @ 2.00

Supported by a 53.30% win probability, this selection represents excellent value when compared to the market’s implied odds. Additional supporting factors include:

• Persebaya’s dominant home record in the derby
• Superior attacking volume and possession patterns
• Arema’s difficulties defending against wide overloads
• A consistent trend of Persebaya generating decisive chances early in matches

This bet aligns with both predictive data and historical performance indicators.

2. Home Win + Both Teams to Score (Home + BTTS)

Model Rating: 58.9% This is the highest combined probability among derivative outcomes, supported by:

• 70.00% BTTS projection
• Expected multi-goal output
• Arema’s counter-attacking strengths ensuring goal-scoring potential
• Persebaya’s likelihood of producing multiple high-quality chances

This bet fits the algorithm’s central narrative: Persebaya to outscore Arema in a lively, open derby.

Betting Strategy Recommendations

A structured staking plan helps bettors capitalise on value while maintaining responsible bankroll control.

Low-Risk Strategy

Persebaya Draw No Bet Ideal for cautious bettors seeking to leverage home advantage while protecting against a competitive derby environment.

Medium-Risk Strategy

Persebaya to Win @ 2.00 The top-rated primary outcome, backed strongly by Football Park’s algorithm.

High-Risk Strategy

Correct Score: Persebaya 2-1 A well-supported statistical selection that aligns with goal probabilities, BTTS expectations and head-to-head history.

Always apply responsible gambling principles and avoid overexposure on volatile markets.

Persebaya Surabaya vs Arema FC Lineups Insight Reminder

For official matchday lineups, refer to verified team announcements prior to kick-off.

Football Park Predictions

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