Athletic Club vs Alaves Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips Predictions

Athletic Club vs Alaves Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

The Spain La Liga campaign continues with Athletic Club hosting Alaves at San Mamés on 13 September 2025, with kick-off at 17:30 GMT. This Basque derby has often been a low-scoring tactical battle, but Football Park’s algorithm gives the hosts a strong edge. With a 60% probability of an Athletic Club win and a 2-0 correct scoreline flagged as the most likely outcome, this fixture looks primed for a home victory built on defensive stability.

As highlighted in our San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield predictions, Football Park’s model analyses over 200 key data points — from recent head-to-heads to tactical efficiency — to deliver betting insights backed by probability. In this clash, the numbers point towards Athletic dominating possession and limiting Alaves’ threat, with value concentrated in win markets and goal totals under 2.5.

Athletic Club vs Alaves Predictions

Home Win Probability: 60.00%

Draw Probability: 20.00%

Away Win Probability: 20.00%

Correct Score Prediction: 2-0

Top 2 Percentage Best Bets

Athletic Club to Win @ 1.57 – The standout selection, with the algorithm strongly backing the home side.

Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 – With only 1.70 expected goals predicted, this offers strong value.

Athletic Club vs Alaves Timeline & Match Insights

First Half Projection: The game is expected to start tightly, with a 46.7% chance of being level at half-time. Athletic hold a 33.3% probability of leading by the break.

Goals Outlook: A low-scoring fixture is likely, with just 30% probability for Over 2.5 Goals.

BTTS Forecast: At 33.3%, "Both Teams to Score" looks unlikely, further favouring the home clean sheet scenario.

Athletic Club vs Alaves Matches – Head-to-Head

Recent history highlights Athletic’s control in this fixture:

11 May 2025: Athletic Club 1-0 Alaves

16 Mar 2024: Athletic Club 2-0 Alaves

16 Jan 2024: Athletic Club 2-0 Alaves

01 Oct 2021: Athletic Club 1-0 Alaves

22 Sep 2019: Athletic Club 2-0 Alaves

Athletic have won five of the last six meetings at San Mamés without conceding, underscoring the strength of the 2-0 correct score prediction.

Athletic Club vs Alaves Betting Analysis

Home Win @ 1.57 – Backed by a 60% probability and consistent head-to-head dominance.

Draw @ 4.00 – A riskier play, with only a 20% algorithm projection.

Away Win @ 6.00 – Slim chances, reflective of Alaves’ struggles in Bilbao.

Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 – A valuable market given the historical trend of tight scorelines.

Both Teams to Score @ 2.25 – Unlikely according to the model, pointing bettors towards "No".

Best Athletic Club vs Alaves Betting Tips

Athletic Club to Win @ 1.57 – Strong home record and statistical dominance.

Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 – Consistent with low goal projections and head-to-head history.

Match Facts

Correct Score Prediction: 2-0 Athletic Club.

Half-Time/Full-Time Projection: Draw/Home most likely outcome, reflecting a cagey opening.

Venue: San Mamés, Bilbao – one of Spain’s most atmospheric grounds.

Broadcast: Live coverage expected across La Liga’s international partners, including DAZN and regional broadcasters.

Responsible Gambling

All Football Park insights are probability-based. While our algorithm identifies value bets, football remains unpredictable. Always stake responsibly and only wager what you can afford to lose.

Football Park Predictions

Football Park provides bettors with a range of different football betting predictions across Europe, the EFL and Non-League football.