Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips Predictions

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Match Date: Saturday, 18 October 2025 Kick-off: 20:00 GMT Competition: Spain La Liga

Match Overview

Atletico Madrid return to the Cívitas Metropolitano aiming to solidify their La Liga title push against an Osasuna side that has proven unpredictable this season. Football Park’s predictive model gives Atleti an 80% win probability, making them clear favourites, but Osasuna’s previous 4-1 victory in May 2024 serves as a sharp reminder that this fixture is rarely straightforward.

Diego Simeone’s men have been ruthless at home — winning eight of their last nine league matches in Madrid — and the algorithm expects another dominant display. However, Osasuna’s counter-attacking style could still find joy against an Atletico side that occasionally concedes on transitions, which supports a goals-based betting angle.

Football Park Algorithm Predictions

Football Park’s AI-powered analytics engine evaluates over 200 variables per match — from possession sequences to defensive recoveries — to produce the following projections:

Home Win Probability: 80.00%

Away Win Probability: 13.30%

Draw Probability: 6.70%

Both Teams to Score Probability: 70.00%

Expected Match Goals: 3.00

The model’s predicted scoreline of 2-1 to Atletico Madrid reflects a contest where the hosts dominate territory and possession, but Osasuna still pose a genuine scoring threat on the break.

Key Betting Tips

1. Atletico Madrid to Win @ 1.40

Atleti’s home strength under Simeone remains one of La Liga’s most reliable betting trends. With an 80% win likelihood, the data suggests a straightforward home success. Atletico have scored two or more goals in seven of their last nine home matches, while Osasuna have lost three of their last four on the road.

Expect the hosts’ attacking trio to dictate play, and their defensive discipline should see them close out the game effectively. Recommended Bet: Atletico Madrid to Win @ 1.40

2. Both Teams to Score @ 2.20

Despite Atletico’s defensive reputation, their recent home fixtures have been far more open. Football Park’s model gives BTTS a 70% probability, supported by five of their last six games at home producing goals for both sides.

Osasuna have scored in four of their previous five visits to Madrid and tend to thrive in matches where they absorb pressure and attack in transitions. At odds of 2.20, BTTS represents strong value for bettors looking beyond the match-winner market. Recommended Bet: Both Teams to Score @ 2.20

Head-to-Head Timeline – Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Matches

12 Jan 2025: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna

19 May 2024: Atletico Madrid 1-4 Osasuna

21 May 2023: Atletico Madrid 3-0 Osasuna

20 Nov 2021: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna

16 May 2021: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Osasuna

14 Dec 2019: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Osasuna

15 Apr 2017: Atletico Madrid 3-0 Osasuna

24 Sep 2013: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Osasuna

Atletico have historically dominated this fixture, winning eight of the last nine home meetings. However, Osasuna’s shock 4-1 win in 2024 broke that streak and ensures the visitors will arrive with confidence.

Statistical Breakdown – Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Predictions

Over 0.5 Match Goals: 100% probability

Over 1.5 Match Goals: 80% probability

Over 2.5 Match Goals: 55% probability

Over 3.5 Match Goals: 35% probability

Over 0.5 First Half Goals: 67% probability

The data suggests a high chance of second-half action, with Atletico often scoring late due to their aggressive pressing and substitutions in the final third.

Betting Outlook

Football Park’s projection expects a comfortable yet competitive Atletico victory, with a 2-1 correct scoreline aligning with historical trends and model outcomes.

Atleti’s tactical structure and home form make them a strong favourite, but Osasuna’s counter-attacking presence supports the Both Teams to Score market. For bettors, the Atletico Win and BTTS combination provides the optimal blend of safety and value.

Responsible Gambling Message

At Football Park, we promote a responsible approach to betting. Our insights are built on statistical analysis and historical data — but football remains unpredictable, and outcomes can vary.

Only gamble what you can afford to lose, and if betting ever becomes stressful or problematic, seek help through BeGambleAware.org or your regional support service for confidential advice.