La Liga
Home Win
Elche 3 - 0 Athletic Club
Who will win?
1
Elche
x
Draw
2
Athletic Club
Match Date: Sunday, 19 October 2025 Kick-off: 13:00 GMT Competition: Spain La Liga
Elche host Athletic Club at the Estadio Martínez Valero in a La Liga encounter where the data tilts surprisingly toward the home side. Football Park’s predictive model gives Elche a strong 60% chance of victory, signalling a potential upset against an Athletic team that has struggled to find consistency on the road.
Athletic Club’s defensive structure has looked vulnerable lately, particularly against teams that press high and play vertically through the channels — a tactical approach that has served Elche well at home. With 2.5 expected match goals and over a 95% probability for Over 0.5 Goals, the algorithm forecasts an open contest likely to see both sides create chances.
Football Park’s proprietary algorithm analyses more than 200 match variables — including recent form, possession patterns, and expected goal contribution — to generate precise probabilities:
Home Win Probability: 60.00%
Away Win Probability: 20.00%
Draw Probability: 20.00%
Both Teams to Score Probability: 53.30%
Expected Match Goals: 2.50
The model’s projected correct score of 3-0 highlights Elche’s attacking momentum and Athletic’s potential defensive shortcomings, particularly in wide areas.
At 3.75, Elche represent excellent betting value based on Football Park’s algorithmic confidence. The home side have a 60% win probability and have shown significant improvement in their attacking sequences, averaging 1.6 expected goals per match.
Athletic have won just one of their last six away fixtures in La Liga and conceded in five of those. The model’s confidence in Elche reflects both recent form and home efficiency — they’ve scored at least twice in three of their last four home games. Recommended Bet: Elche to Win @ 3.75
While Elche are tipped for victory, Athletic’s attacking metrics remain respectable, with 1.3 average goals per game away from home. The 53.3% probability of BTTS suggests that both sides will find opportunities, especially given that neither team has kept a clean sheet in their last five combined league matches.
Historically, this fixture has produced goals — three of the last five meetings have seen both teams score. Recommended Bet: Both Teams to Score @ 1.95
11 Sep 2022: Elche 1-4 Athletic Club
16 Aug 2021: Elche 0-0 Athletic Club
22 May 2021: Elche 2-0 Athletic Club
17 May 2015: Elche 2-3 Athletic Club
25 Mar 2014: Elche 0-0 Athletic Club
Elche’s home record against Athletic has been mixed but competitive, with the hosts winning two of the last five meetings. However, their recent form and higher algorithmic confidence suggest a turning point heading into this matchup.
Over 0.5 Match Goals: 95% probability
Over 1.5 Match Goals: 70% probability
Over 2.5 Match Goals: 35% probability
Over 3.5 Match Goals: 15% probability
Both Teams to Score: 53.3% probability
Over 0.5 First Half Goals: 60% probability
Elche have scored before halftime in five of their last six home matches, while Athletic have conceded inside the opening 45 minutes in three of their previous four away outings — reinforcing the potential for early goals.
Football Park’s data model points toward a competitive but open fixture, where Elche’s recent attacking resurgence and home advantage could prove decisive. The Elche Win market offers strong value at 3.75, while Both Teams to Score provides a complementary betting angle for those expecting an end-to-end encounter.
A 3-0 or 2-1 home victory appears the most plausible outcome based on the algorithm’s projections and historical form.
At Football Park, we advocate responsible, informed betting. Our predictions are based on statistical evidence and predictive analytics, but outcomes can never be guaranteed.
Always set limits, wager responsibly, and treat betting as entertainment rather than income. For free, confidential advice and support, visit BeGambleAware.org or contact your local responsible gambling service.
Contact Sales