Home Win
Elche 2 - 0 Celta Vigo
Who will win?
1
Elche
x
Draw
2
Celta Vigo
Elche host Celta Vigo at the Estadio Martínez Valero on Sunday, 28 September 2025 (15:15 GMT) in La Liga. Despite bookmakers pricing Celta as slight favourites at 2.60, Football Park’s model gives Elche a 53.3% win probability, projecting a 2-0 home victory. With just 1.5 expected match goals, this clash looks set to be low-scoring.
Date: 28 September 2025
Kick-Off: 15:15 GMT
Competition: Spain La Liga
Venue: Estadio Martínez Valero, Elche – a 33,000-seater ground with a passionate home following.
Referee: TBC
Spain: Movistar+ LaLiga
UK: LaLiga TV / Viaplay Sports
International: ESPN+, DAZN (selected regions), Bet365 streaming
Home Win Probability: 53.3%
Away Win Probability: 20.0%
Draw Probability: 26.7%
Correct Score Prediction: 2-0
Both Teams to Score Probability: 36.7%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 5.0%
Half-Time/Full-Time Projection: Draw/Home
Elche to Win @ 2.88 – The model favours the hosts strongly, with Celta’s attack projected at just 0.5 goals.
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.65 – With only 1.5 expected goals and just 5% chance of clearing 2.5, the unders market has strong value.
Expected Match Goals: 1.50
Over 0.5 Goals Probability: 100%
Over 1.5 Goals Probability: 40%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 5%
Over 3.5 Goals Probability: 0%
First Half Goals Projection: 0.53 (47% chance of at least one first-half goal)
Best Bet 1: Elche Win @ 2.88
Best Bet 2: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.65
The data leans towards a controlled Elche home performance, likely built on defensive resilience. A 2-0 correct score mirrors the model’s expectations and aligns with betting value.
Football Park’s predictions use advanced data analysis to highlight value markets, but football can always surprise. Bet responsibly and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
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