Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips Predictions

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

Real Sociedad face Rayo Vallecano at the Reale Arena on Sunday, 5 October 2025 (17:30 GMT) in La Liga. La Real are favourites with a 53.3% chance of victory, while Rayo have just 26.7% win probability. Goals are expected, with 63.3% chance of BTTS and a 2-1 correct score projection.

Key Betting Tip: Real Sociedad Win @ 2.00

Match Details

Date: 5 October 2025

Kick-Off: 17:30 GMT

Competition: Spain La Liga

Venue: Reale Arena, San Sebastián (39,000 capacity)

Referee: TBC

Broadcast Details

Spain: Movistar+ LaLiga

UK: LaLiga TV, Viaplay Sports

International: ESPN+, DAZN, Fanatiz (selected regions)

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Home Win Probability: 53.3%

Away Win Probability: 26.7%

Draw Probability: 20.0%

Correct Score Prediction: 2-1

Both Teams to Score Probability: 63.3%

Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 55.0%

Half-Time/Full-Time Projection: Draw/Home

Football Park’s Top 2 Best Bets

Real Sociedad Win @ 2.00 – La Real’s home form and superior expected goals edge make them the safer pick.

Both Teams to Score @ 1.95 – With 63.3% BTTS probability and recent H2Hs showing both sides often scoring, this market offers strong value.

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano – Betting Insights

Expected Match Goals: 2.70

Over 0.5 Goals Probability: 95%

Over 1.5 Goals Probability: 75%

Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 55%

Over 3.5 Goals Probability: 35%

First Half Goals Projection: 1.20 (53% chance of at least 1 first-half goal)

Expert Betting Tips – Football Park

Best Bet 1: Real Sociedad Win @ 2.00

Best Bet 2: Both Teams to Score @ 1.95

The stats suggest a competitive match with goals, but Real Sociedad’s stronger attacking projection (1.5 xG vs 1.1 xG) gives them the edge at home. A 2-1 win for La Real looks the likeliest outcome.

Head-to-Head – Last 5 Meetings

16 Jan 2025 – Real Sociedad 3-1 Rayo Vallecano

18 Aug 2024 – Real Sociedad 1-2 Rayo Vallecano

27 Jan 2024 – Real Sociedad 0-0 Rayo Vallecano

22 Apr 2023 – Real Sociedad 2-1 Rayo Vallecano

10 Dec 2022 – Real Sociedad 1-1 Rayo Vallecano

Mixed history, but Sociedad usually edge it at home.

Responsible Betting

At Football Park, we use advanced stats to highlight value. However, football is unpredictable – especially in La Liga’s mid-table clashes. Always gamble responsibly and never stake more than you can afford to lose.