Home Win
Club Tijuana 2 - 1 Necaxa
Who will win?
1
Club Tijuana
x
Draw
2
Necaxa
Club Tijuana host Necaxa at the Estadio Caliente on Monday, 1 September 2025 (04:00 GMT) in the Mexico Liga MX. Football Park’s algorithm projects the hosts as slight favourites with a 40% chance of victory, compared to Necaxa’s 20%. The remaining 40% probability points to a draw, underlining how finely poised this encounter could be.
With both teams averaging goals in recent meetings and the model expecting 3.10 total goals, this fixture has the potential to be an open contest. The correct score model leans towards a 2-1 home win, making Tijuana a value pick in front of their supporters.
Date: 1 September 2025
Kick-Off: 04:00 GMT
Competition: Mexico Liga MX
Venue: Estadio Caliente, Tijuana – A 27,000-capacity stadium known for its synthetic turf and passionate atmosphere, making it a fortress for the hosts.
Referee: TBC
Mexico: TUDN / ViX
USA: Univision / TUDN USA
Europe & UK: Bet365 streaming (selected regions)
Home Win Probability: 40%
Away Win Probability: 20%
Draw Probability: 40%
Correct Score Prediction: 2-1
Both Teams to Score Probability: 83.3%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 60%
Half-Time/Full-Time Projection: Draw/Draw
Club Tijuana to Win @ 2.20 – Backed by home advantage and strong expected goal output.
Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS @ 1.80 – With an 83.3% chance of both teams scoring and 60% probability on over 2.5 goals, this market carries significant value.
05 Apr 2025: Tijuana 1-2 Necaxa
06 Apr 2024: Tijuana 2-3 Necaxa
19 Sep 2022: Tijuana 1-1 Necaxa
19 Feb 2022: Tijuana 1-1 Necaxa
24 Apr 2021: Tijuana 1-0 Necaxa
Necaxa have edged the most recent meetings, winning back-to-back encounters in 2024 and 2025, but Tijuana’s strong home record suggests this could be their chance to reverse that trend.
Expected Match Goals: 3.10
Over 0.5 Goals Probability: 100%
Over 1.5 Goals Probability: 85%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability: 60%
Over 3.5 Goals Probability: 30%
First Half Goals Projection: 1.27 (60% chance of at least one first-half goal)
Best Bet 1: Club Tijuana to Win @ 2.20
Best Bet 2: Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS @ 1.80
Expect goals and an intense battle at Estadio Caliente, where Tijuana’s home support could prove decisive. A 2-1 win for the hosts aligns with both statistical projections and market value.
Football Park predictions are built on advanced statistical modelling. While probabilities highlight value, football remains unpredictable. Always gamble responsibly.
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