Home Win
Nice 3 - 0 Toulouse
Who will win?
1
Nice
x
Draw
2
Toulouse
Allianz Riviera will host Nice vs Toulouse in Ligue 1 action on Saturday, August 16, 2025, with kick-off set for 20:05 GMT. Football Park’s data-driven model strongly favours the hosts, giving Nice a 60.00% probability of victory compared to just 13.30% for Toulouse. This match projects as a dominant display for the home side, with the algorithm also pointing towards a high probability of a clean sheet for Nice.
The head-to-head history supports the numbers — Nice are unbeaten in their last three home games against Toulouse, including a 1-0 win in November 2023. With an expected goals edge and a solid defensive record, Nice are well positioned to control the tempo and secure three points.
Key Betting Tip: Nice to Win @ 2.05 – backed by strong historical dominance and a high win probability from the model.
Football Park’s Best Bet: Nice to Win @ 2.05 – supported by a 60.00% probability and clear statistical superiority in both attack and defence.
Our two highest-probability selections for this fixture are:
Nice to Win – 60.00% Probability
Half-Time Nice Win – 60.00% Probability
The predicted correct score is 3-0 to Nice, reflecting the gulf in quality and form between the two sides.
The odds offer value considering the hosts’ strong home record and Toulouse’s limited attacking threat, with just a 36.70% chance of scoring according to the model.
Given Nice’s 60.00% probability of leading at the break, backing them early could be a profitable approach. Their aggressive start and superior attacking setup make this an appealing market.
Nice are likely to assert dominance from kick-off, with a 67.00% probability of at least one first-half goal. Toulouse will need to stay compact and organised to avoid an early collapse, but the hosts’ 2.30 expected goals projection suggests sustained pressure.
Nice are unbeaten in their last 3 home meetings with Toulouse (W2, D1).
Two of the last three clashes at Allianz Riviera ended with a Nice clean sheet.
The model projects Over 2.5 Goals at 50.00%, but the strongest value remains on the home win markets.
Expect Nice to control the match from start to finish, with an early lead likely setting the tone for a comfortable home victory. Toulouse’s away record and low scoring probability make them unlikely to take points from this fixture.
Nice to Win @ 2.05
Half-Time Nice Win @ 2.50
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