National League North


Home Win
Chorley 2 - 1 Leamington
Who will win?
1

Chorley
x
Draw
2

Leamington
Chorley welcome Leamington to Victory Park on Tuesday 3 February 2026, with kick-off set for 19:45 GMT in the National League North. Football Park’s algorithm strongly favours the hosts in this fixture, with the key betting tip landing on Chorley to Win @ 1.40, a selection backed by a dominant 71.7% home win probability. Using the same data-led framework applied to previews such as San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield, the model highlights Chorley’s home strength, consistent edge in recent meetings and a scoring profile that should put them in control. While Leamington are capable of contributing offensively, all indicators point towards Chorley dictating the match and extending their positive record in this head-to-head.
Recent meetings underline Chorley’s advantage in this fixture. They have won three of the last four encounters, including a 2-1 home success in November 2024 and consecutive 1-0 wins prior to that. Leamington did manage an away victory in early 2021, but overall trends show Chorley regularly finding ways to edge tight games, particularly at Victory Park.
Football Park’s model gives Chorley a commanding 71.7% chance of victory, compared to just 21.7% for Leamington and a low 6.7% draw probability. The projected correct score of 2-1 reflects expectations of Chorley control with Leamington still posing some threat. Goal markets also rate well, with over 2.5 goals landing above 60%, suggesting an open contest despite the clear favourite.
Football Park’s Best Bet: Chorley to Win @ 1.40 This selection aligns perfectly with the strongest percentage in the model. Chorley’s home form, historical edge in this matchup and superior win probability make this the standout pick.
Second Rated Selection: Over 2.5 Match Goals @ 1.67 With a 62.5% likelihood, this complements the main tip and reflects the expectation of multiple scoring chances across the match.
There is a 90% probability of at least one goal and an 87% chance of first-half scoring, pointing towards an active start. Chorley are also favoured to lead at both half-time and full-time, reinforcing the home win angle.
Victory Park continues to be a reliable venue for Chorley, offering familiar conditions and strong backing that regularly translate into front-foot performances, especially against lower-ranked opposition.
This National League North clash fits the profile of a fixture where Chorley’s consistency and attacking intent should outweigh Leamington’s resistance, even if the visitors manage to get on the scoresheet.
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