National League North
Home Win
Leamington 2 - 1 Macclesfield
Who will win?
1
Leamington
x
Draw
2
Macclesfield
Match Details:
October 21, 2025 | 19:45 GMT | New Windmill Ground | England National League North
Leamington and Macclesfield meet under the lights on Tuesday evening in what promises to be an intriguing clash between two sides with attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities. Football Park’s advanced prediction model gives Leamington a 50% chance of avoiding defeat, with strong indicators for goals at both ends.
Our algorithm projects a high probability of an open contest, with over 60% likelihood for Over 2.5 Goals and a 72% probability for Both Teams to Score. Given the offensive metrics and historical trends between similar fixtures, this encounter stands out for bettors seeking value in goal-heavy outcomes.
Key Betting Tip: Leamington Double Chance (Win or Draw) at 1.67 odds offers strong protection against a narrow defeat, while data supports an entertaining match with both sides likely to find the net.
Football Park’s model evaluates over 200 statistical data points, including shot efficiency, defensive transitions, and match tempo. For this fixture, the projections heavily lean toward a competitive, high-tempo game.
Leamington’s expected goals figure of 1.30 gives them a marginal edge over Macclesfield’s 1.10, suggesting the hosts can capitalise on home advantage. The algorithm predicts an Expected Match Goals total of 2.40, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple scoring chances throughout.
Home Win Probability: 50%
Draw Probability: 20%
Away Win Probability: 30%
Both Teams to Score: 72%
Correct Score Prediction: 2-1 Leamington
Historically, both teams have produced tight encounters in the National League North, but Football Park’s data suggests a shift towards more open play patterns in this meeting, fuelled by both sides’ attacking form.
Football Park’s Best Bet: Leamington Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 1.67
Leamington’s home metrics, combined with a 50% win probability and 20% chance of a draw, position this as a smart, risk-balanced selection. The hosts have consistently performed above expected goal values in recent fixtures, making the Double Chance option an analytically strong investment.
Given Macclesfield’s tendency to concede in away matches — averaging over 1.5 goals per game — this market provides insurance while capitalising on Leamington’s stability at the New Windmill Ground.
Value Bet: Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS @ 2.20
The model projects a 72% Both Teams to Score probability and 60% likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals, making this combination an attractive high-value market. Both clubs are heavily reliant on transitional attacks and set-piece conversions, two areas statistically correlated with higher goal frequencies in Football Park’s database.
Leamington’s recent home performances indicate a strong trend toward goal-heavy outcomes — six of their last eight home fixtures have seen at least three goals. Macclesfield’s away record shows similar trends, with their defence struggling to hold clean sheets despite solid attacking contribution.
This matchup encapsulates the unpredictability of the National League North, where small margins define results. Football Park’s data predicts a slow first half (70% chance of half-time draw) followed by a more expansive second half as both sides chase victory.
Leamington’s likely strategy revolves around compact defensive organisation before exploiting counter-attacking opportunities. Macclesfield, meanwhile, possess a creative front line but remain vulnerable to aerial duels and direct balls into the box — areas where Leamington statistically excel.
Our algorithm’s confidence in a 2-1 home victory aligns with these dynamics: patient build-up, second-half breakthrough, and late defensive resilience.
For similar match patterns, see Football Park’s in-depth coverage of Boston United vs Morecambe and Cardiff vs Reading, where expected-goal trends and algorithmic accuracy have highlighted profitable outcomes.
Football Park’s model identifies this fixture as one of Tuesday’s more balanced markets, but with considerable betting value in the goals and Double Chance segments.
Leamington Double Chance (1.67) offers statistical protection against variance.
Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS (2.20) is backed by strong algorithmic probability.
The Correct Score prediction (2-1) reflects a contest where both teams find the net, but Leamington’s efficiency decides the outcome.
These insights are grounded in Football Park’s proprietary data model, designed to identify edge-based value across lower-league fixtures — markets often overlooked by mainstream bookmakers.
Football Park encourages responsible betting. Our algorithm-driven predictions are designed to inform, not guarantee, outcomes. Always stake amounts within your comfort zone and set limits before placing any bets.
Football Park provides bettors with a range of different football betting predictions across Europe, the EFL, and Non-League football. Our data-driven match previews combine expert insight with algorithmic analysis, ensuring readers access actionable betting intelligence and sustainable long-term strategy.
Contact Sales