York City vs Gateshead Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

York City vs Gateshead Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips

The National League action continues on 5 November 2025, as York City host Gateshead at the LNER Community Stadium. Kick-off is scheduled for 19:45 GMT, and the fixture promises intensity and drama between two northern rivals familiar with each other’s style. York enter the contest as firm favourites, yet the data suggests Gateshead could be the value play — especially when factoring in their historical success in this matchup.

At Football Park, our algorithm — which assesses over 200 advanced performance indicators — projects a 46.7% probability of an away win and 26.7% chance of a draw, making Gateshead Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 3.50 a standout value bet. With a modelled goal expectation of 2.9 total goals, an open and attacking game looks likely, though the visitors carry the edge in efficiency and transitional play.

Match Details

• Competition: England National League
• Date: 05 November 2025
• Kick-off (GMT): 19:45
• Venue: LNER Community Stadium, York

Key Betting Tip: Gateshead Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 3.50 – exceptional value based on Football Park’s algorithm.

York City vs Gateshead Timeline / Previous Matches

This fixture has a long-standing rivalry in the National League, often producing unpredictable results. The recent history, however, slightly favours Gateshead:

• 01 Jan 2025: York 1–0 Gateshead
• 01 Jan 2024: York 2–0 Gateshead
• 26 Dec 2022: York 0–3 Gateshead
• 29 Jan 2022: York 1–1 Gateshead
• 26 Aug 2019: York 1–1 Gateshead
• 21 Feb 2017: York 1–3 Gateshead
• 22 Feb 2012: York 1–2 Gateshead

Gateshead’s ability to consistently score away at York — including multiple wins over the past decade — underpins Football Park’s data-driven forecast. The visitors’ pressing game and direct transitions have historically troubled York’s possession-heavy approach, particularly in matches played under lights.

York City vs Gateshead Predictions

Football Park’s predictive model integrates tactical trends, home/away efficiency, and team form data. The output indicates the following probabilities:

• Home Win: 26.7%
• Draw: 26.7%
• Away Win: 46.7%
• Both Teams to Score: 43.3%
• Expected Match Goals: 2.9

The algorithm favours Gateshead’s counter-attacking potential and superior shot efficiency. York, while possessing strong individual talent, are flagged as vulnerable defensively — especially when conceding early goals.

Top Rated Percentage Selections

Gateshead Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 3.50

With nearly a 73% combined probability (46.7% away win + 26.7% draw), this market offers outstanding value. Gateshead’s strong away form, pace in transition, and superior attacking metrics justify the algorithm’s backing. It’s Football Park’s highest-confidence selection for this fixture.

Over 2.5 Goals (60% probability, odds 1.33)

The model projects nearly three total goals, with both sides capable of contributing. The Over 2.5 Goals market presents solid statistical backing for bettors seeking action on total goals rather than outcomes. Gateshead’s last five National League fixtures have averaged over 2.8 goals per game, while York’s defensive numbers align with similar trends.

Together, these two markets represent the most data-supported options from Football Park’s predictive model, combining statistical probability with betting value.

York City vs Gateshead Lineups & Tactical Outlook

Confirmed York City vs Gateshead lineups will be available closer to kick-off, but data-driven tactical projections indicate contrasting strategies. York are likely to utilise a possession-oriented 4-2-3-1 structure, seeking to dictate tempo through short build-up play and midfield overloads. However, this system can expose defensive gaps when transitions break down.

Gateshead, meanwhile, thrive in a 3-5-2 or 3-4-1-2 setup, relying on high wing-backs and direct vertical passing. Their success often comes from quick counters and exploiting space behind the opposing full-backs. The Football Park model notes that Gateshead create higher xThreat metrics (attacks leading to shot opportunities) when facing teams with high defensive lines — a category York clearly fit.

York City vs Gateshead Match Insights

• Predicted Correct Score: York City 1–2 Gateshead
• Expected Home Goals: 1.3
• Expected Away Goals: 1.5
• Expected First-Half Goals: 1.47
• Over 0.5 First-Half Goals Probability: 80%
• Over 1.5 First-Half Goals Probability: 40%
• Half-Time Results: Home 26.7%, Away 40.0%, Draw 33.3%
• Half-Time / Full-Time Pattern: Draw / Away

The model anticipates a competitive opening 45 minutes before Gateshead’s efficiency begins to show. Their pressing intensity and physical edge could tilt momentum after halftime. York’s reliance on possession without penetration increases the likelihood of turnovers in key areas, favouring the away side.

Betting Strategy & Expert Analysis

The standout betting strategy focuses on Gateshead Double Chance @ 3.50, a market that statistically outperforms its implied odds. Given a modelled 73% probability of success, this bet offers significant long-term value for National League followers.

Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.33 serves as a reliable complementary selection. With both teams averaging above two goals per game collectively, this total-goals market aligns neatly with Football Park’s expected match goals (2.9).

For bettors seeking higher risk-reward opportunities, combining these markets in an accumulator could produce a strong yield — though with greater volatility.

Responsible Gambling Advice

All Football Park recommendations are based on probability models and data-driven analysis. Results can vary, and bettors should always stake responsibly, using a fixed percentage of bankroll. For detailed guidance on risk management, visit Football Park’s Responsible Gambling and Betting Strategy Guides.

York City vs Gateshead Predictions Summary

Football Park’s advanced algorithm identifies Gateshead as the statistically stronger side despite York’s home-field advantage. With superior efficiency, better transition play, and positive historical performance, Gateshead hold both the tactical and probabilistic edge.

Predicted Scoreline: York City 1–2 Gateshead

Top Selections: Gateshead Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 3.50; Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.33

Confidence Level: High – value-supported model projection.

Why Trust Football Park Predictions?

At Football Park, predictions are powered by a robust model evaluating over 200 performance variables — from tactical tempo and goal conversion rates to match-state dynamics and defensive compactness. Every output undergoes backtesting against thousands of real match results, ensuring transparency and accuracy.

Our coverage extends across European competitions, the EFL, and Non-League football, offering bettors precise, data-led forecasts.

Key Takeaways

• Primary Selection: Gateshead Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 3.50
• Secondary Selection: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.33
• Predicted Score: York City 1–2 Gateshead
• Expected Match Goals: 2.9
• Most Likely Pattern: Draw at half-time, Gateshead edge late

Football Park Predictions

Football Park provides bettors with a range of different football betting predictions across Europe, the EFL and Non-League football.