Non League Premier - Southern South


Home Win
Chertsey Town 2 - 1 Evesham United
Who will win?
1

Chertsey Town
x
Draw
2

Evesham United
Chertsey Town welcome Evesham United to Alwyns Lane on 15 November 2025, with kick-off scheduled for 15:00 GMT in the England Non League Premier - Southern South. This fixture promises attacking intent from both sides, with Football Park’s predictive model projecting a goal-heavy encounter driven by high-scoring probabilities across multiple metrics.
Following Football Park’s algorithm-based approach — as seen in our San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips model — this preview provides a full breakdown of match data, betting value, and percentage-based outcomes. The algorithm points towards an open match with Chertsey Town holding a slight advantage, supported by home advantage and a higher expected goals return.
Key Betting Tip: Chertsey Town to Win @ 1.85 – our in-house data model gives them a 40% chance of victory, suggesting solid value in a balanced contest.
Football Park’s advanced algorithm forecasts a competitive, high-scoring clash between two sides evenly matched in form and goal creation. The model predicts a 40% probability for a home win, 30% for an away victory, and 30% for a draw, highlighting how narrow the margins could be.
Model Overview:
These figures reinforce expectations for an open, attack-driven game, with both sides likely to contribute to the scoring. Chertsey Town are forecasted to net 1.7 goals, compared to Evesham United’s 1.3, suggesting fine attacking balance with the hosts edging it on finishing efficiency.
This fixture has developed into a consistent attacking matchup in the Southern South division. Both teams have averaged over 2.5 goals per meeting in recent years, with Chertsey typically more productive at home. Football Park’s simulation model forecasts a match rhythm that will likely see first-half goals play a crucial role — data indicates a 90% probability of over 0.5 first-half goals and 40% for over 1.5.
The Chertsey Town vs Evesham United timeline is defined by dynamic starts and end-to-end attacking phases. With both teams pressing early and maintaining aggressive forward positioning, the algorithm suggests the first goal could come inside the opening 20 minutes.
Football Park’s algorithm identifies two key selections with the highest value based on probability data and market pricing.
1. Chertsey Town to Win @ 1.85
The data assigns Chertsey a 40% probability of victory, giving slight edge to the hosts, who are more consistent at converting early dominance into results. Their home performances show tactical sharpness and effective pressing, especially in the second half where they record the majority of their goals.
Supporting Data:
Football Park’s in-house projections indicate a home win with goals on both sides as the most statistically supported outcome. Given the 1.85 price, bettors are gaining value over the implied market probability (~54%) — a solid differential in favour of a Chertsey success.
Why It’s Value: Chertsey have scored at least two goals in 70% of their home matches this season, aligning with our forecast for a 2-1 result. Evesham’s defensive numbers also suggest vulnerabilities away from home, making Chertsey’s price of 1.85 a favourable data-backed bet.
2. Both Teams to Score @ 1.83
With an 84% model probability, BTTS ranks as one of Football Park’s strongest data selections for this fixture. Both clubs have shown defensive inconsistencies balanced by strong attacking transitions, with a combined average of 3.0 expected match goals.
Key Indicators:
The data points to both teams creating clear scoring opportunities, particularly between minutes 30–70 — a period where over 60% of goals are expected to occur. With both sides demonstrating consistent goal-scoring form and fragile defensive structures, BTTS aligns perfectly with Football Park’s predictive model.
Why It’s Value: At 1.83 odds, the implied market probability (54%) falls significantly below Football Park’s 84% model reading — creating an outstanding 30% edge for bettors targeting statistical long-term value.
Confirmed Chertsey Town vs Evesham United lineups will be announced pre-match, but the predictive algorithm accounts for tactical trends and historical formations to project gameplay patterns.
Chertsey Town typically operate within a 4-3-3 system emphasizing wide delivery and forward overloads. Their data profile shows high efficiency in home matches when pressing from midfield and maintaining tempo after the break.
Evesham United often switch between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1, prioritizing quick counterattacks and exploiting open channels. However, their defensive structure tends to falter when stretched by width and pace — a weakness Chertsey can exploit.
Football Park’s predictive analysis suggests Chertsey’s wider offensive shape could create overloads on the flanks, with their expected goals per chance creation ratio marginally stronger than Evesham’s.
The most recent Chertsey Town vs Evesham United matches suggest a consistent trend: goals at both ends and a decisive second-half swing. The model indicates a Draw/Home half-time/full-time outcome, fitting a pattern of Chertsey starting cautiously before turning dominance into late goals.
Algorithm Summary:
With Chertsey averaging 1.7 goals and Evesham 1.3, Football Park’s data projects another evenly matched contest where the home side’s superior finishing could make the difference. The expected goal flow also anticipates strong first-half momentum, consistent with a 90% probability for at least one first-half goal.
Betting Summary:
Alwyns Lane’s tight pitch dimensions favour Chertsey’s direct, high-tempo pressing game. The hosts’ style, combined with Evesham’s preference for transition play, reinforces the model’s view of an end-to-end, goal-friendly fixture.
Football Park’s data-driven predictions provide statistical insights, not guarantees. All forecasts are derived from predictive models that evaluate form, style, and variance. Always bet responsibly and set spending limits in accordance with your bankroll management strategy.
Football Park provides bettors with a range of different football betting predictions across Europe, the EFL and Non-League football.
Our algorithm-driven approach delivers actionable insights built on data, form, and statistical confidence. Stay tuned to Football Park for the latest Chertsey Town vs Evesham United predictions, expert analysis, and betting strategy updates.

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