Non League Premier - Southern South


Away Win
Farnham Town 2 - 3 Poole Town
Who will win?
1

Farnham Town
x
Draw
2

Poole Town
Farnham Town host Poole Town at The Memorial Ground on 18 November 2025, with kick-off at 19:45 GMT, in the England Non League Premier – Southern South. Football Park’s predictive model expects a high-scoring, open encounter between two attack-minded sides, with Poole Town’s superior finishing and tactical balance giving them the edge.
Following Football Park’s algorithmic analysis framework — as seen in our San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield Predictions, Lineups & Betting Tips feature — this in-depth preview leverages over 200 data points to deliver objective, data-driven insight. Our system combines team performance metrics, probability distributions, and situational trends to isolate high-value betting opportunities.
Key Betting Tip: Poole Town Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 1.80 – Football Park’s algorithm projects a 78% probability of Poole avoiding defeat, with their offensive metrics and efficiency in transition offering clear value at the current market price.
Football Park’s predictive engine forecasts an open and goal-laden match, with both teams expected to attack from the outset. The data favours Poole Town’s tactical efficiency and sharper conversion rate, while Farnham’s defensive fragility remains a concern in algorithm simulations.
Model Overview:
The Football Park model highlights Poole Town’s offensive superiority — registering 2.10 expected goals compared to Farnham’s 1.80 — while their 50% away win probability significantly outperforms the hosts’ 20%. The algorithm suggests a fast-paced opening phase, with an 80% chance of at least one first-half goal and a 60% chance of over 1.5 first-half goals, positioning this fixture as one of the most attack-heavy games of the midweek schedule.
The Farnham Town vs Poole Town timeline indicates a game likely to deliver immediate action. Football Park’s event modelling identifies an 80% likelihood of a first-half goal and a projected 1.70 first-half goal total — signalling early attacking pressure from both sides.
Key timeline insights:
These projections underline the high potential for multiple goals, aligning closely with the 2-3 correct score prediction. Farnham Town’s attacking model shows strong first-phase chance creation (averaging 1.8 goals at home), but their defensive structure allows an above-average 1.9 xGA (expected goals against) — a weakness the visitors are well-equipped to exploit.
Poole Town’s recent away performance data demonstrates efficiency on the counter, with a 62.7% probability of combining a win with both teams scoring, further reinforcing the model’s confidence in their attacking consistency.
Football Park’s betting intelligence system isolates two statistically valuable markets from the model’s predictive data.
1. Poole Town Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 1.80
The leading Football Park selection is the Double Chance (Win or Draw) in favour of Poole Town, backed by a 78% probability of success across simulations.
Supporting Data:
Poole Town’s attacking fluidity and adaptability in high-possession transitions provide a tactical edge against Farnham’s inconsistent defensive lines. Their away metrics show an average of 2.1 goals per game, while they concede just 1.3, translating into one of the strongest non-league away performances in Football Park’s model.
Why It’s Value: At 1.80 odds (implied 55%), the Football Park algorithm’s 80% combined probability offers a 25% value edge — one of the highest-rated Non-League Double Chance bets of the week.
2. Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57
The secondary recommendation, Over 2.5 Goals, carries a 93.3% likelihood of landing according to Football Park’s match model — indicating extreme statistical confidence in a goal-heavy outcome.
Key Indicators:
Both teams’ attacking metrics strongly support this pick. Farnham Town average nearly two goals per match at home, while Poole Town’s attacking line produces sustained pressure and fast transitional play. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides compound the model’s projection of four or more total goals.
Why It’s Value: Even at 1.57 odds (implied 63.7%), the 93.3% model projection suggests a data-driven value margin exceeding 29% — rare across lower-league goal markets.
This bet aligns closely with Football Park’s 2-3 correct score forecast and the expectation of early momentum from both sides.
While official Farnham Town vs Poole Town lineups will be confirmed closer to kick-off, Football Park’s tactical model highlights clear contrasts in style and structure between the two sides.
Farnham are projected to line up in an attacking 4-3-3, built around possession and width, seeking to exploit overloads through advanced full-backs. Their approach creates volume in chance creation but leaves vulnerabilities in transition.
Poole Town are expected to mirror a 4-2-3-1 setup, designed for compact defensive transitions and fluid counterattacks. Their midfield pairing provides stability, allowing forward runners to exploit gaps behind Farnham’s high defensive line.
Football Park’s simulation identifies Poole’s tactical shape as the more adaptable — offering balance between pressing resistance and direct attacking capability, which underpins their higher away win probability.
Historical Farnham Town vs Poole Town matches reveal consistent patterns of open, high-scoring play, which align with the model’s forecast of sustained goal production.
Algorithm Summary:
Football Park’s predictive simulation identifies the away side as the more efficient unit — particularly in direct attacking sequences and second-phase recoveries. Poole Town’s ability to convert counterattacking phases into high-value chances differentiates them from most of their divisional rivals.
Farnham’s model metrics suggest heavy early involvement, but their structural weaknesses in defensive recoveries create high expected goals against (xGA), which aligns with the projection of a multi-goal away performance.
Given the 80% probability of at least one first-half goal and the 60% likelihood of over 1.5 goals before halftime, bettors should expect a fast start with sustained scoring opportunities throughout.
Top Tip: Poole Town Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 1.80 An 80% combined probability offers a clear edge over market prices, with Poole’s data profile strongly supporting their resilience away from home.
Alternative Value Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 A 93.3% probability underscores this as one of the most statistically reliable goal-line selections in Football Park’s current model.
Predicted Goals: 3.90
Correct Score Prediction: 2-3
The Memorial Ground’s fast, narrow pitch dimensions may amplify the attacking tempo of both sides, creating a tactical environment conducive to multiple goals. Football Park’s simulations predict that Poole Town’s counterattacking efficiency and second-half finishing strength will be decisive factors in the outcome.
Football Park’s predictions are built on data modelling and quantitative performance trends. However, all betting involves inherent risk — always wager responsibly and set clear limits. For support or further guidance, consult responsible gambling resources before placing a bet.
Football Park provides bettors with a range of different football betting predictions across Europe, the EFL and Non-League football. Each preview combines tactical expertise with algorithmic precision to identify genuine market value opportunities.
Stay up to date with the latest Farnham Town vs Poole Town predictions and in-depth Non-League football betting coverage exclusively at Football Park.

Contact Sales